In this edition of Toronto Maple Leafs News & Rumors, I’ll share news from the All-Star Weekend. I’ll also look at prospect Fraser Minten, who has been a surprise for the organization. Finally, I’ll share a more analytical perspective of just how strong a player Auston Matthews is for his team and across the NHL.
Item One: Maple Leafs Stars Do Pretty Well in All-Star Skills Competition
Although they didn’t win, both William Nylander and Auston Matthews put on a show for their home crowd in the new-and-improved NHL All-Star skills competition. While neither showed well in the fastest skater and hardest shot events, they came back strong in later events.
Matthews was narrowly beaten by Connor McDavid in the accuracy shooting competition, while Nylander won the shootout challenge. On the night, McDavid ultimately won the whole contest and the $1 million prize that went with it. Still, Matthews and Nylander’s standout performances highlighted the night for Maple Leafs fans.
Related: Maple Leafs’ Focus on ‘Grit’ Proving Costly to Addressing Depth
As All-Star weekend concludes with the games today, Team Matthews will feature the Maple Leafs all-stars. Their coach? Justin Bieber, of course.
Item Two: Fraser Minten: A Versatile Gem in the Maple Leafs Prospect Pool”
One surprise gem of the Maple Leafs’ prospects has turned out to be Fraser Minten. Interestingly, Minten came up in another post I wrote last week when I reported that former Maple Leafs goalie Petr Mrazek was re-signed by the Chicago Blackhawks after a solid season in the Windy City. After his injury-ridden Maple Leafs season, who would have thought?
The connection between Mrazek and Minten is that to trade Mrazek, former general manager (GM) Kyle Dubas had to trade down in the draft as a deal sweetener. After that trade, they picked Minten in the same draft. As it worked out, Minten turned out not to be a shabby choice.
Minten was so strong at the team’s preseason camp that he made the roster and played a few NHL games. He looks to have the potential to become a solid NHL player. Perhaps he won’t be an offensive juggernaut; however, he brings a ton of different skills aside from explosive point production. He looks ready to become a part of the Maple Leafs future, perhaps sooner rather than later.
It helps Minten’s cause that his natural position is center, and, in that role, his size gives him an up as well insofar as his readiness for prime time goes. He seems versatile enough to become a reliable presence down the middle. He’s both physical and disciplined, which also would seem to make his transition to the NHL easier. Most analysts have him pegged as a solid third-line center who will bring good defensive skills and be able to play off the puck well.
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That said, who knows? Certainly, no one has ruled out his stepping into the second-line center role when John Tavares retires or – more likely – moves to the wing. A line of Tavares on the left wing, Minten at the center, and Nylander on the right wing are not out of the question for next season.
Minten’s a youngster to keep an eye on. He’s become a promising prospect who might be with the team as early as next season. There will likely be big changes in the roster as some of the team’s current contracts expire when the season is over.
Item Three: Auston Matthews Is A Powerhouse Player
Matthews will be front-and-center this weekend at Toronto’s All-Star Weekend. As I introduce this part of the post, let me begin with the obvious. He’s become a powerhouse center for the Maple Leafs. At 26 years of age, he continues to grow into a stronger all-round player. He’s a pivotal force for the team.
In two previous posts, I’ve referred to The Athletic’s “Player Cards.” These are in-depth analyses of different players in terms of their on-ice numbers and a blend of more advanced analytics. They might not be perfect, yet I’m intrigued with them because they add to my own insight.
Matthews’ “player card” is interesting. It mirrors what we all see when he’s on the ice, where he shows a remarkable set of skills that contribute to his power as a standout NHL player. (from “NHL Player Cards: Atlantic Division,” Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman, The Athletic, 01/28/2024).
His assessment pegs his offensive rating at +20. That puts him at the offensive percentile of 100%, which is as high as an NHL player can be ranked. In other words, the ranking suggests that Matthews sits at the top of the NHL. His skills at putting the puck past the goalie are unmatched. The analysis predicts that he’ll end up with an impressive 71 goals, 32 assists, and a total of 103 points. Matthews is delivering exceptional individual offensive performances.
Related: Maple Leafs’ New Defensive Asset: Auston Matthews
But his defensive analysis is also exceptional. He’s tenacious defensively beyond his offensive abilities. He plays a strong 200-foot game. His current defensive rating of +3 reflects these well-rounded abilities. His defensive percentile of 95% underscores his commitment to play hard at both ends of the ice. Notably, he excels at blocking shots and contributing on both special teams units.
Matthews’ on-ice impact suggests that he isn’t just an individual star. He also significantly elevates the play of the entire team when he’s on the ice. With an on-ice offensive rating of 98%, he’s a catalyst for scoring chances. Whether on the power play or penalty kill, Matthews consistently shows the ability to influence a game’s outcome.
At 26 years old, Matthews’ level of consistency sets him apart. The analysis pegs his market value at $14.5 million. His current salary of $11.6 million highlights a surplus value of $2.9 million to the Maple Leafs. In short, a more objective analysis than my eye test of Matthews suggests that he’s solid at orchestrating on-ice success for his team. He is offensively brilliant, defensively tenacious, and consistently excellent. No wonder he continues to dominate the league and is the Maple Leafs’ best player.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
For Maple Leafs fans, it will be fun to see how Team Matthews performs. Matthews, as the captain, is sticking with his Maple Leafs teammates. He’s named Morgan Rielly as his co-captain, and his team includes both Nylander and Mitch Marner. Two great goaltenders will help keep the puck out of the team’s net – one is Connor Hellebuyck from the Winnipeg Jets, and the other is Igor Shesterkin from the New York Rangers.
Other All-Star players on Team Matthews include Kirill Kaprizov from the Minnesota Wild, Sebastian Aho from the Carolina Hurricanes, Travis Konecny of the Philadelphia Flyers, Elias Lindholm now from the Vancouver Canucks, and the physical Tom Wilson from the Washington Capitals. It could be a fun All-Star performance.