With how this season started, it’s a borderline miracle that this clinch is in reach, let alone with a week and a half left in the NHL regular season. But that’s a testament to the resilience of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
In the first half of the season, as soon as they appeared to find any momentum, they got tripped up again. As late as early January, the team barely stayed above hockey .500 (remember overtime losses count differently) and was in the playoff race only because no one else could pull away. Even well into February, they had some concerning losses.
But they held on long enough to finally catch their breath and came roaring back. They survived Andrei Vasilevskiy‘s absence and other injuries to key players, such as defenseman Mikhail Sergachev. They found the depth they were lacking and the core got the job done more often than not.
The Lightning can clinch a playoff berth as soon as this weekend, and they can even still finish top three in the Atlantic Division.
The Playoff Clinching Scenarios
Most would have imagined a scenario where the Lightning’s playoff hopes would come down to the final game of the regular season. Something similar to how the Florida Panthers slid in at the end of last season. However, with their latest streak, they can clinch with a handful of games to spare. What’s the quickest route?
With their win over the Montreal Canadiens Thursday night, it takes a combination of the following:
- Lightning beat the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday (regulation or overtime is fine since the Penguins cannot mathematically catch up in either scenario)
- The Detroit Red Wings lose to the New York Rangers on Friday
- The Washington Capitals lose to the Carolina Hurricanes
If the Lightning pick up two points, they will reach 95 points. Currently, both the Red Wings and the Capitals can still win out and finish with 96 points. The Lightning would have to lose out, but either team can still knock them out in theory – hence the clinching scenario.
Related: Kucherov Sets New Personal & Franchise Record for Points in a Season
Should both the Red Wings and Capitals lose, the most either team could finish with is 94 points, mathematically punching the Lightning’s ticket to the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They, along with some other teams, could still make the playoffs, but passing the Lightning would no longer be a mathematical option.
Should either the Red Wings or Capitals win, then it would take the Lightning beating the Columbus Blue Jackets on Monday to clinch. Then, they would have more points than either team even if one were to win out and the Lightning were to lose out. For what it’s worth, the Lightning also have a chance to knock out the Capitals when they play each other on April 13, should it reach that point.
What if the Lightning lose to the Penguins? Well, they’re still in if they win two more games. That’s it. Once they win twice more, they are in the playoffs for the seventh consecutive season, extending an already franchise-best streak. Beyond the streak, they would make the playoffs for the 10th time in 11 seasons.
What About Catching Up to the Maple Leafs?
Again, another scenario the Lightning managed to keep in play. There have been points where they pulled ahead of the Toronto Maple Leafs in the standings. But once they slid to eight points behind in early March, it felt like this was the point Toronto would pull ahead.
Sure enough, the Lightning stand just two points behind the Maple Leafs. Timing is everything here. The Lightning are 10-1-1 post-trade deadline while the Maple Leafs are 7-4-1, which isn’t even that bad, but the Lightning have been that good. The head-to-head win on Wednesday night also went a long way. These two also face off again one last time on April 17, the last game of the regular season for both teams. It’s not that crazy of a thought that this game will decide who plays the Florida Panthers or Boston Bruins in the first round. Both teams have decently favorable schedules down the stretch.
If they were to catch up, it would be pretty sweet for the Lightning in a few ways. They lost to the Maple Leafs in the playoffs last year and struggled against them at the start of this season. There were a lot of overtime losses mixed in leading to that Groundhog Day feeling. But, hey, nothing lifts a weight off your shoulders quite like getting the last laugh.