As the Florida Panthers took down the New York Rangers in the 2024 Eastern Conference Final, New York Islanders fans could hardly contain their happiness. The New York rivalry runs deep, so seeing the Rangers’ season end to a Florida team for the second consecutive season, just like the Islanders in 2020 and 2021, has brought a weird sense of satisfaction.
Arguably the most underrated player of the playoffs, not just for the Panthers, but the entire NHL, has been Anton Lundell. Now, with Lundell in his second consecutive Stanely Cup Final with Florida, the Islanders must keep an eye on the young center as he is a dream candidate to acquire this summer.
Why Lundell Is Perfect for the Islanders
Most hockey fans are unfamiliar with Lundell’s game, but that is bound to change. He is a dynamic skater who dominates in the defensive zone, leading a relentless forecheck through his body and stick. He can lead a penalty kill unit, one of the key factors in Florida’s takedown of the Rangers. Offensively, he brings it all as he utilizes his skating to swerve around defenders. He keeps his head up, constantly searching for the best pass or open ice. He also has silky smooth hands that can sauce passes like few others, as well as snipe a goal past the league’s best goaltenders. Since he is on such a deep Florida team, his opportunities have been limited. But, there should be no doubt once in an elevated role, he will develop into a superstar.
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If that has not convinced you the Islanders should target Lundell, his positional value will. He is just 22 years old, left-handed, a strong skater, and has a great shot. The Islanders, in desperate need of finding another top-line winger to slot in alongside Bo Horvat and Mat Barzal, would be lucky to get just one or two of those qualities in their next linemate. If the Islanders could bring in Lundell, it is hard to imagine the team could find a better fit.
Offer Sheets Do Not Happen
Before discussing why the Islanders should offer sheet Lundell, it must be stated how unrealistic this idea is. Islanders’ general manager Lou Lamoriello is likely the last person in the NHL to consider one, automatically throwing this idea out the window. Offer sheets are also few and far between in the NHL, with the only recent offer sheets coming to mind being the Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes’ bitter war regarding Sebastian Aho and Jesperi Kotkaniemi.
However, an offer sheet may be the only possible way to land Lundell. He is a former first-round pick and already a dominant two-way center in the NHL. Many fans have called him “Mini Alexander Barkov” due to his relentless defensive forecheck and strong hockey IQ, so the Panthers are incredibly unlikely to consider trading him. As a pending restricted free agent, he is likely to ask for a steep pay raise from his current entry-level salary of not even $1 million. And while Florida will not be excited to give him such a pay raise, they will likely succumb to his asking price. However, the Islanders could put them in a tough situation by offering Lundell a deal so far out of their price range they may have to take the draft pick compensation.
Panthers’ Cap Situation
Before proceeding, it is important to understand Florida’s cap situation. The team has a projected $19.7 million in cap space with five key pending free agents. Along with Lundell, the team has to provide new contracts to Sam Reinhart, Brandon Montour, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Anthony Stolarz, and Vladimir Tarasenko. While Ekman-Larsson and Stolarz could be left unsigned without leaving a dent on the roster, the same could not be said for Reinhart and Montour.
Reinhart is likely to receive a deal of around $10 million, and Montour around $7 million. This will leave the Panthers in such a tight salary position that they may have to let one of the two free agents walk or trade away a few other players to make them fit. This chaos will leave Lundell as a prime offer sheet target if an opposing team is willing to cause chaos in free agency.
What Would a Deal Look Like?
Offer sheet compensation average annual value (AAV) is calculated by dividing the total contract value by the lower of the contract’s length, or five years. Given the NHL’s recent changes to draft pick compensation, a contract signed between $4.58 and $6.87 million would yield just a 2025 first and third-round pick.
With the Islanders having the ability to offer such a contract, they could offer Lundell a one-year, $6.86 million contract for the 2024-25 season. This would be reminiscent of Kotkaniemi’s one-year, $6,100,035 contract for the 2021-22 season when he signed with the Hurricanes. The reality is this salary would not be much more than what he would get otherwise, as a two to three-year contract at $4 million is a fair estimate. However, that extra $2 million is substantial, plus the Islanders would provide an opportunity Lundell would not get in Florida.
Once again, it must be understood this is a dream acquisition for the Islanders. Florida has no reason to trade Lundell so the Islanders will either need to submit an offer sheet or send a massive trade haul to bring him in, both extremely unlikely scenarios. However, with free agency opening up in the coming weeks, now is a great time for Islanders fans to dream about what could come of this offseason.
