After a season in which the Winnipeg Jets finished fourth in the NHL, before being eliminated by the Colorado Avalanche in a mere five games, there are plenty of questions surrounding the organization as a crucial offseason approaches.
I asked Jets fans on X/Twitter for their questions regarding the team and the offseason, and they brought their ‘A’ game. This article will cover the latest on the Nikolaj Ehlers situation, Brenden Dillon’s unrestricted free agent (UFA) status, and much more.
Odds of Nikolaj Ehlers being traded before the draft? – @Connor
The biggest Jets-related storyline of the offseason so far has been the status of Nikolaj Ehlers. One season left on his contract at $6 million, before he hits unrestricted free agency. Every report from national insiders has insinuated that Ehlers does not want to re-sign in Winnipeg, making a trade more likely.
I would put the odds of him being traded before the draft at 30-35%. If Ehlers is to be moved, his value will be much higher if it’s a sign-and-trade, similar to Pierre-Luc Dubois a season ago. At 28 years old, teams inquiring about his services will want him throughout his prime years, making his value that much higher with an extension in place.
The flip side to this discussion, and where the 30-35% likelihood comes from, is the Jets’ lack of a first-round pick in 2023. They have Montreal’s second rounder (37th overall) and no third round pick. Draft capital is an area that General Manager Kevin Cheveldayoff is likely looking to bolster, and he could use Ehlers, with a trade prior to the draft, to do so.
Related: 4 Potential Trade Destinations for Jets’ Nikolaj Ehlers
However, I still see it far more likely that he is moved after July 1, when teams are able to sign him for the long-term and assure themselves that their new trade asset will not walk into free agency next offseason.
Will they give a couple of rookies a chance if they show well in preseason? Salmonsson and Lambert? – @Aud_Mike
My guess is that rookies will have the ability to win a job out of a training camp more so this season than in recent years. For Brad Lambert, if he shows well in preseason, I think he gets a shot. Whether that be as a centre or a winger largely depends on the UFA status of Sean Monahan, but I think Lambert has a good chance regardless, even more so if Ehlers is moved.
At 21 years old, he would be breaking into the NHL relatively young, but his speed and offensive ability makes him a seamless transition possible. AHL all star, all-rookie first team, and the Manitoba Moose’s leading scorer in 2023-24 sure doesn’t hurt his case either. I could also see his Moose teammate, Nikita Chibrikov, potentially carving out a bottom-six role with the Jets next season if his preseason goes to plan.
As for Elias Salomonsson, I see him playing next year only if it’s out of necessity, or if he plays incredibly well in preseason that the Jets have no choice but to keep him on the NHL roster. If Dylan DeMelo and Brenden Dillon sign elsewhere in free agency, Nate Schmidt is bought out, and Neal Pionk is potentially moved as well, who is going to play defence?
His development with Skellefteå Aik in the SHL this season has been tremendous, and Jets fans should be excited to see him in a Jets jersey very soon, but I could see him starting the season with the Moose in the AHL to get him acclimated to North American pro hockey before the NHL.
Projected Roster for 2024-25 and who to bring up from AHL next season? – @SamsonNeustrom
I love projecting rosters at this time of year, especially when so much movement could still happen. Here’s my best guess at the 2024-25 Winnipeg Jets roster on June 14.
| 2024-25 Winnipeg Jets Projected Roster | Forwards | Defence |
| Line/Pairing 1 | Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi | Morrissey-Ehlers Trade Return* |
| Line/Pairing 2 | Perfetti-Namestnikov-Lambert | Samberg-DeMelo |
| Line/Pairing 3 | Niederreiter-Lowry-Appleton | Heinola-Pionk |
| Line 4/Goaltending | Iafallo-Barron-Chibrikov | Goaltending |
| Hellebuyck/Backup |
A few notes on the decisions I made: Lambert cracks the NHL roster, but not as a centre. We saw this with Cole Perfetti when he first joined the NHL, as they moved him to the wing to help ease some of the centre responsibilities. Sean Monahan, Brenden Dillon, Tyler Toffoli, Laurent Brossoit, and Colin Miller go elsewhere in free agency.
The defence core is completely reshaped, as the Ehlers return features a right-handed defenceman in return to play alongside Josh Morrissey. Ville Heinola cracks the NHL roster, while Nate Schmidt’s contract is bought out for cap relief.
Lastly, Chibrikov makes the roster in a bottom-six role as a forechecking pest with some scoring upside. The Jets go into next season with Vladislav Namestnikov, Perfetti, Lambert, and Gabriel Vilardi as potential second-line centre options. Now, we wait and see just how wrong this projection was was in a few months!
Could you see the Jets moving their 2nd round pick before the draft? @JetsHonest / Pionk and the 2nd round pick for a mid to late 1st? @CanadianDean
These questions both involve the movement of the 37th overall pick, which currently is the highest selection the Jets own in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. For that reason alone, I cannot see them moving this pick. If Ehlers is moved for draft capital, this pick could potentially be involved so that the Jets find their way into the top 15, but otherwise, I see them holding onto this pick.
As for Pionk, if he is to be moved this offseason, I see it by way of a cap dump trade or a buyout. The Utah Hockey Club currently does not have a defencemen under contract and $43.5 million in cap space. A trade that would send Pionk to Utah for a late-round pick in return could be beneficial for both sides. He could be exchanged for a late-round pick, or potential retention on his salary in exchange for a middle-round pick, or have his contract bought out. Regardless of those avenues, I see Pionk playing out the final year of his deal for Winnipeg in a sheltered role on the third pairing next season.
For a team that lacked playoff type of grit, and defensemen. Shouldn’t it be a priority to retain defensemen like Brenden Dillon? – @Kevo2415 & @JeanieBeHappy
I completely understand the fan appeal for Brenden Dillon. He’s a physical, veteran leader, who defends his teammates routinely and has been a mainstay in the top four for a handful of seasons now. Those types of defenders are a hot commodity around the league right now, which is why you are seeing talk on social media of Nikita Zadorov being in line for a massive pay day.
Related: Winnipeg Jets Free Agents 2024: Brenden Dillon
While the Jets would be wise to bring Dillon back, and it should be a priority, given the current market with physical defenders, I think it would be wise for Dillon to test the market. He could potentially get a much higher number on the open market than what the Jets are capable of paying.
The latest report we have is from Scott Billeck of the Winnipeg Sun, who reported that Dillon and the Jets have had contract discussions, but it still remains likely that he hits free agency on July 1.
What will happen with Nate Schmidt this offseason? – @AllanJHayes1
It looks as though a buyout is likely between Nate Schmidt and his contract with the Jets. The first buyout window opens 48 hours after the Stanley Cup Final concludes, where the Florida Panthers currently lead 3-0.
A buyout would mean the Jets are freeing up $3.32 million in cap space this offseason, and paying $1.161 million over each of the next two seasons. That would free up much-needed cap space for the Jets, who find themselves in a cap crunch with a long list of free agents.
The other option would be to move Schmidt to a organization needing a veteran defenceman, in a trade that the Jets would almost certainly have to retain 50% of Schmidt’s deal. Either way, I believe it’s more likely than not that Nate Schmidt is on a different team to begin next season.
How does “promise” of opening spots for youth affect Chevy’s FA decisions – @ Kentmaurstad
Incorporating youth into the lineup will be a major emphasis for the Jets in 2024-25 given their current cap situation. Young players also means entry level contracts, which are vital to success when you are the smallest market in the NHL, which the Jets are.
A youth movement affects the free agency status of Monahan, who could be repalced by Lambert. Dillon and DeMelo, who could be repalced by Heinola or Salomonsson. Other then those scenarios, the Jets will still have a core in the middle of their prime with the likes of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Morrissey, Hellebuyck, etc.
