Flyers’ Sean Couturier Poised for a Bounce Back in 2024-25

The Philadelphia Flyers probably wouldn’t have had such early-season dominance in 2023-24 if it weren’t for captain Sean Couturier. Following a 22-month absence due to injury entering his last campaign, he was brilliant during some parts of the season.

However, it was a bit of half-and-half for the 20th captain in team history—he was spectacular at times but not at others. In 2024-25, perhaps we should expect some consistency and less “half-and-half” excellence. But why? How high is Couturier’s ceiling at this stage of his career? Let’s discuss.

Diving Into Couturier’s Numbers

For Couturier, it was essentially a tale of two seasons. He was pretty great from the start of his 2023-24 campaign until right before the All-Star Break. After that, he lost his way a bit. Not only does the eye test back this up, but the stats test does, as well.

We’ll split Couturier’s season into two sections to assess him. One includes his first 41 games, while the other includes his last 33 (he played 74 in total during 2023-24). The stats we will be using are the following: goals per 60 (G/60), assists per 60 (A/60), points per 60 (P/60), relative expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60 Rel), relative expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60 Rel), relative expected goals percentage (xGF% Rel), relative Corsi percentage (CF% Rel), relative goals percentage (GF% Rel), and average time on ice (ATOI). All of the numbers will be at 5-on-5 solely.

There’s a helpful glossary to explain all of these terms in case you aren’t familiar. These numbers range from individual scoring (G/60, A/60, P/60) to how many scoring chances or shots a player is creating and giving up when on the ice (xGF/60 Rel, xGA/60 Rel, xGF% Rel, CF% Rel) relative to what their teammates are doing.

Compared to all forwards around the NHL in these specific time frames (Oct. 12 through Jan. 18 for the first 41 games, Jan. 19 through April 16 for the last 33 games), how does Couturier look? Included is his change in percentile for each specific stat from the first time frame to the second:

The trend here is pretty evident: Couturier was a completely different player in the first half of the season versus the second half. In every single stat here, he was better in his first 41 games—the regression here was swift yet forceful.

For a while, not only was Couturier the Flyers’ best player, but he was also a quality first-line center on a team that didn’t have any depth on that front. Getting a ton of minutes whilst simultaneously producing good individual offensive numbers, dominating his opposition in scoring chances, and even boasting a plus-13 rating at 5-on-5, he was seriously one of the NHL’s best two-way centermen. Doing all of it in a pretty difficult role, he had a vintage showing coming back from injury.

In his last 33 games, though, Couturier was reduced to middle-six minutes at best. His individual offense vanished, he was just barely getting more scoring chances than his opponents but played very low-event hockey, and had a dreadful minus-19 rating at 5-on-5 despite going up against easier competition. Basically, he went from a lineup essential to a non-factor.

How Couturier’s Regression Hurt the Flyers

Couturier’s regression wasn’t the only—and perhaps not even the biggest—reason why the Flyers got worse as time went on, but his struggles were definitely a huge part of the problem. When he wasn’t at his best, the Orange and Black simply crumbled.

From the start of the season through Jan. 18, the Flyers had a 25-14-6 record (102-point pace) and were ninth in the NHL standings. At that point, it really did seem like they were destined for postseason hockey. Then, Couturier got worse (again, among other things), and everything changed.

After a 5-1 win against the Dallas Stars on Jan. 18, the Flyers went 13-19-5 (69-point pace) and ultimately missed the playoffs following a loss in their final game. With the sixth-worst points percentage of all teams in their final 37 contests, Philadelphia gave up 39 more goals than they scored—everything that could have gone wrong, did.

The biggest problem with Couturier’s deterioration is a point we already visited: the Flyers’ center depth was poor last season. Morgan Frost was their closest thing to a first-line center, but even he is best fit for a second-line. Ryan Poehling was pretty good for the Orange and Black, but his lack of offensive talent limits him to a third-line role at the most. The only other option was Scott Laughton, who was barely an NHL-caliber player, if at all—his minus-10.8 xGF% Rel at 5-on-5 was in the 8th percentile of NHL forwards in 2023-24.

Without a single other option to replace Couturier on the first line, the Flyers went months without a true first-line center. For any team trying to win hockey games, that just isn’t going to end well. Combining that with an overall lack of talent on the roster and some of the worst goaltending numbers in team history, Philadelphia’s fate was inevitable. In this instance, the captain really did go down with his ship.

Why We Can Expect Couturier’s Best

We don’t have a definitive timeline on the injury in question, but there’s a logical explanation as to why Couturier regressed so heavily: he was playing through a sports hernia. Withholding surgery until the 2024 offseason, he might have been suffering from the ailment for a while.

This alone explains Couturier’s issues down the stretch. Possibly suffering from some fatigue on top of his painful injury, it’s clear that the Flyer captain at full health is still a terrific player, but not so much when his biggest enemy is his own body.

Now, Couturier has a clean slate and a full NHL season under his belt. There is the obvious risk of the veteran center being “injury prone,” but none of his notable injuries in the past have been related—he suffered a torn MCL in 2018 (and won the Selke Trophy two years later), a back injury in 2021, and his sports hernia likely in 2024. That might be more of a bad thing depending on how you look at it, but the good news is that his back was never a noticeable issue on the ice last season—his injury was seemingly a relic of the past. It’s easier said than done, but all he has to do now is recover from his latest setback like he has time and time again.

Still just 31, we shouldn’t expect Couturier to just fall off of a cliff this upcoming season. It’s reasonable to assume he can play at least somewhat comparable to how he did to start 2023-24, if not the same. If he can sustain that sort of play from October through April without a long-term absence, it could really take the Orange and Black to new heights.

Related: Flyers’ 2024-25 Roster Is More Improved Than It Appears

Based on his own words, we should expect the 41-game sample from Couturier. Having an offseason to rest, rehab, and improve his game, there should be some optimism around the new captain. He won’t break any records, but the 12-year veteran of the Flyers proved one thing—he’s still an amazing hockey player when he’s close to 100 percent. We have good reason to believe that this version of him skates on Wells Fargo Center ice more often than not in 2024-25. If he can, all aspects of the game will become easier for his teammates.

Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick