The New York Islanders selected Simon Holmstrom with the 23rd pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, meaning his first five years in the organization have concluded. He is a winger with a powerful shot and strong defensive instincts, and he has demonstrated moments of brilliance during his NHL career. At 23 years old, time is running out for him to realize his potential and his path to securing a top-six role has become more challenging due to uncertainties about his place in the lineup. Given his performances so far, what should his short- and long-term expectations be on Long Island?
Holmstrom’s Short-Term Future
Holmstrom recently signed a one-year contract with the Islanders that will once again lead him to restricted free agency next offseason. While a short-term deal was obvious, it confirmed what fans already knew: the team needs more time to evaluate his capabilities.
In 75 games last season, Holmstrom scored 15 goals and 25 points, including five shorthanded goals, the second-most in the league (behind Travis Konecny with six). However, many of his goals came in brief bursts, leading to extended stretches without scoring.
One of Holmstrom’s greatest challenges last season was his inconsistent placement in the lineup. Although he was a regular on the penalty-killing unit, he struggled to find chemistry on a forward line. He logged over 100 minutes with four different line combinations, more than any other Islander last season, and did not spend more than 155 minutes with any single line combination.
Holmstrom performed best alongside Jean-Gabriel Pageau, likely due to their partnership on the penalty kill, so they are likely to play together again this season. However, the identity of their third linemate remains uncertain, with three strong candidates vying for the role.
Holmstrom’s 2024-25 Line Candidates
The first candidate is Anders Lee. The Islanders’ captain likely lost his role alongside Mat Barzal and Bo Horvat with the signing of Anthony Duclair. With the team in need of depth scoring, Lee, a previous 40-goal scorer, would make a lot of sense.
Last season, Lee spent 30 minutes playing alongside Pageau and Holmstrom, achieving a 54.2% expected goals percentage (xG%) according to MoneyPuck. While he may be the weakest skater on the line, this is typical for him, and his shooting ability would be a valuable addition to the team’s third line.
The second candidate is Pierre Engvall. Last season, he played with Pageau and Holmstrom for just 19 minutes, but the three had a 58.8 xG%. All three are strong skaters and struggled with consistency last season due to a lack of consistent linemates, so putting together three “misfits” could work.
Additionally, when Pageau and Holmstrom played alongside Julien Gauthier, one of the fastest skaters in the NHL, there was an impressive pace and style the Islanders otherwise lacked. While it may be risky, putting these three speedy forwards together could work.
The third candidate is 2024 offseason addition, Maxim Tsyplakov. The highly-coveted Russian winger signed with the Islanders while having interest league-wide. He is a power forward with a strong shot and is likely to land a role in the team’s middle six. He would provide an offensive spark that Pageau and Holmstrom would benefit from playing alongside, making him an intriguing candidate for the role.
Holmstrom’s Long-Term Future
The bigger question regarding Holmstrom is his long-term fit. As a left-handed winger with a strong two-way game, he is going to stick around in the NHL for a while, but how high is his upside? He is a very talented shooter and has produced in the NHL already, but his advanced metrics and the second half of the 2023-24 season are worrisome.
This season will be pivotal in the assessment of Holmstrom’s future, but it’s safe to say he is unlikely to ever garner a full-time role in the Islanders’ top six. Too many forwards are signed long-term to allow for him to be given much ice time, and there are multiple prospects in the pipeline who provide the upside he lacks. Of course, a strong 2024-25 season would put that belief to bed, but given his track record, he is likely in line for a lengthy NHL career in the team’s bottom six and penalty-killing units.
When the preseason starts, keep an eye on how head coach Patrick Roy deploys Holmstrom in the lineup. He could play anywhere in the bottom nine, which will indicate how the Islanders’ management views him. Given his age, this may be his final opportunity to prove he is more than just a bottom-six, two-way winger, so it may be now or never to breakout.
