The Edmonton Oilers have had a hectic 2024 offseason, filled with offer sheets, trades, free agent signings, and more. Following a Stanley Cup Final loss, change was expected, but for the most part, the roster has remained intact. The forward core has improved, even with the departures of Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, and Dylan Holloway, and the goaltending tandem has remained the same. However, the defense has lost a few pieces, and barring any additional offseason moves, it could be a major weakness this season.
Defenseman Departures
The Oilers lost three defensemen this offseason. The first is Cody Ceci, who was traded to the San Jose Sharks. Ceci spent the last three seasons in Edmonton, contributing 11 goals and 68 points in 237 regular season games with an average ice time of 20:21. Despite being heavily criticized for the defense’s struggles last season, Ceci was a valuable part of the team’s bottom four and will be missed.
The second subtraction was Philip Broberg, who signed an offer sheet with the St. Louis Blues. The 23-year-old, drafted eighth overall by the Oilers in 2019, struggled to secure a regular spot in the NHL lineup. He was expected to make a full-time leap into the team’s bottom four this season, though with some risk given his limited experience. While losing his youth and potential is unfortunate, choosing not to match the offer sheet at a $4,580,917 annual average value (AAV) was a smart move.
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Lastly, Vincent Desharnais signed a 2-year, $2 million AAV deal with the Vancouver Canucks. He played in 78 games for the Oilers last season, recording one goal and 10 assists. Though he was a solid contributor in the regular season, he struggled during the playoffs and eventually lost his spot in the lineup.
Defenseman Additions
When the Oilers sent Ceci and a third-round pick to San Jose, 24-year-old Ty Emberson was the return. The right-handed defenseman has previously played for head coach Kris Knoblauch with the Hartford Wolfpack of the AHL, and scored a goal and nine assists in 30 NHL games with the Sharks last season. He is a defensive defenseman who should fit in well in the bottom four, but given his lack of experience, he should not be expected to develop into a true top-four defenseman anytime soon.
Josh Brown and Connor Carrick were also brought in this offseason. Both defensemen will be vying for roster spots during training camp, but neither is expected to develop into more than a fringe third-pairing defenseman at best.
Why Worry?
The Oilers may have only lost one true NHL defenseman in Ceci, but the blueline still has major question marks. Of course, Evan Bouchard is the team’s number-one defenseman and arguably a top-10 defenseman in the NHL, but outside of him, there are a lot of weaknesses.
Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm formed the best defensive pairing in the NHL last season, finishing with a 63.4 goals percentage (G%) and 62.8 expected goals percentage (xG%) in the regular season, according to MoneyPuck. However, Ekholm is 34 years old and could regress at any point this season given his age. Last season he set career highs in goals, points, G%, and xG%. While he is still a strong top-four defenseman, all signs point to regression, with the only question being how much.
From there, the Oilers may have one of the worst bottom fours in the NHL. Darnell Nurse has struggled for the better part of the past three seasons, and his two best defensive partners according to xG%, Ceci and Desharnais, have left the team. Emberson would make sense to join his pairing, but the two defensemen struggle in transition, especially with zone exits. This is a concern that Knoblauch could fix with Emberson, but betting on the two to be a successful defensive pairing is a risky bet to make.
Brett Kulak is a solid third-pairing defenseman, but his partner remains a major concern. Emberson makes sense, but it appears more likely he will play alongside some like Brown, Carrick, or Troy Stecher, all borderline NHL defensemen. Given this pairing should only see close to 25% of possible ice time it is not a major concern, but depth wins championships, and the team has no depth.
The Oilers blueline is compromised of arguably five question marks, posing a major threat to the team’s Stanley Cup ambitions. However, the current roster is strong enough to lead the team to the playoffs, and if general manager Stan Bowman can accrue enough cap space to add a legitimate second-pairing defenseman at the 2025 Trade Deadline, the roster outlook could drastically improve.
