When talking about a 19-year-old rookie like Matvei Michkov, someone who is still unaccustomed to North American culture, it makes sense why some would be conservative in projecting his numbers. But this Philadelphia Flyers prospect is not an ordinary player. He has the upside to blow even his more optimistic point projections for 2024-25 out of the water.
Michkov’s Career Numbers
Generally, a good way to analyze top prospects is by looking at their point production—elite players tend to find their way out on top, even if they’re more defensively oriented. For his whole career, Michkov has crushed the competition, always proving to be ready for that next step.
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Michkov’s last stint in junior hockey was in 2021-22, a year before he became draft-eligible (D-1). Playing in Russia’s Junior Hockey League (MHL), he ranked first among forwards in points per game (P/G) with 51 points in 28 contests. Even though the league has 20-year-old participants, he rose above them all.
In his first year of draft eligibility (DY), the next logical step for Michkov was the Supreme Hockey League (VHL). It’s a professional league mostly consisting of players in their early to mid-20s, but not the best out there. Scoring 10 goals and 14 points in 12 games, Michkov ranked second among forwards with at least 10 matches played in P/G—he put up historic numbers.
As if the VHL was child’s play to him, Michkov rejoined the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) where he compiled five points in 13 games in his D-1 campaign. He had 20 points in 30 contests in 2022-23, putting him in the 89th percentile for P/G among forwards with 10 games played (for future reference, these are the requirements for the percentiles). This was the highest P/G total put up in a DY in the history of the KHL.
Last season, Michkov furthered his production with 41 points in 48 games in the KHL, putting him in the 96th percentile with 0.85 P/G. This was the highest total ever put up in a season after being drafted (D+1), edging out players such as Evgeny Kuznetsov, Kirill Kaprizov, Vladimir Tarasenko, and other future stars. It’s important to recognize that Michkov played a decent chunk of ice time, but he was playing a lot for a reason—he was objectively the best teenage KHL player in history.
Now, we arrive at Michkov’s second season after being drafted (D+2). While there aren’t many great comparisons out there since KHLers rarely put up his numbers, there are a few stars to look at to possibly project what he might do in the NHL.
How Similarly Dominant Prospects Performed in Their D+2 NHL Seasons
Four current stars who were in the 99th percentile for P/G in a league during their D-1 and DY seasons, just like Michkov, are Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Jack Eichel, and Jack Hughes. That’s cheating a little bit since Michkov played most of his time in the KHL (and I’m using the VHL for his DY), but these athletes competed against those their age—it’s a disadvantage to the star Russian prospect.
Those four finished in the 99th, 99th, 97th, and 68th percentiles for NHL P/G scoring in their D+2 campaigns respectively—that averages out to the 91st percentile. If we go off of this unscientific projection, that would place Michkov at around 75 points over the course of 82 games in 2024-25. Of course, he’s not on the level of McDavid or Crosby and is probably closer to someone like Eichel or Hughes. Still, that’s promising already.
Elias Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks had similar totals if we look at percentiles. In HockeyAllsvenskan, a professional league in Sweden but not the best (so, somewhat comparable to the VHL), he was in the 97th percentile in P/G during his DY. Taken fifth overall in 2017 by Vancouver, he lived up to that hype in his D+1 season by finishing in the 99th percentile for Swedish Hockey League (SHL) P/G—this is the top league in Sweden and more or less on par with the KHL.
Michkov at this stage is a better prospect than Pettersson was for my money, as the former was sick with pneumonia yet had superstar tracking numbers. Seeing as Michkov has incredible offensive upside, it’s inspiring to see that Pettersson finished his D+2 NHL campaign in the 91st percentile in P/G, winning the Calder Trophy in the process.
Adjusting to the NHL Shouldn’t Be a Big Problem for Michkov
Even with these examples, it’s fair to worry about how Michkov will translate to the NHL level. Again, he’s played hockey almost exclusively in Russia and is still just a teenager. However, there are a few reasons to feel better about how this culture shift might play out.
For starters, Michkov has been playing professional hockey for years now. Since 2021-22, he has 103 contests played across the VHL and KHL—that’s a decent chunk of time. Connor Bedard, a member of Michkov’s draft class who went first overall, didn’t have a single game of professional hockey under his belt until he debuted in the NHL in 2023-24. He scored 61 points in 68 contests, finishing in the 89th percentile for P/G—it was a seamless transition, at least offensively. While it’s not the case for everyone, the top players usually excel rather quickly.
If there’s worry about the cultural factor, we just talked about Pettersson—he played exclusively in Sweden. The fact that Michkov barely speaks English is an understandable concern, but former Calder Trophy winners Artemi Panarin (2015-16) and Kaprizov (2020-21) didn’t either. The two went from the 99th percentile in KHL P/G to the 98th and 94th in NHL P/G respectively as if the language factor meant nothing.
Even with the numbers and rationale I provided, I’m not claiming that Michkov will win the Calder Trophy and score 75 points (or more) in 2024-25. But what I am saying is that he most certainly has the potential to achieve these things this season as long as he’s given the opportunity to. There might be some struggles along the way, but his talent is so grand that it might not matter—this is a very special player.
Stats courtesy of QuantHockey
