Late last week, we looked at five NHL teams who could regress this coming season. Today, we’ll look at five teams who struggled a season ago and have bounce-back potential in 2024-25. Let’s get right to it.
Seattle Kraken
2023-24 season: 34-35-13, 81 points, 6th in Pacific
The Seattle Kraken took a significant step back a season ago after making the playoffs in 2022-23 and totaling 100 points in the standings. That wasn’t necessarily a surprise, as they rode some unsustainable percentages in 2022-23, but I’m sure the expectation was to be more competitive last season than they were.
I’m not saying the Kraken will return to being a 100-point team this season, but they are good bounce-back candidates. Dan Bylsma hasn’t coached in the NHL in quite some time, but his AHL teams with the Coachella Valley Firebirds were absolute wagons; the Firebirds went 45-16-6 this past season. Time will tell, but he’s a good bet to be an upgrade over Dave Hakstol.
Kraken general manager Ron Francis also made some additions this offseason to help Bylsma, specifically offensively. Brandon Montour might be a defenseman, but he should help provide offense from the back end. The Chandler Stephenson contract may be burdensome, but he should give them some center depth in the near term and help shield Matty Beniers, who did struggle a bit in his second NHL season in 2023-24.
Related: 5 NHL Teams Who Could Regress in 2024-25
Speaking of Beniers, internal improvement is a significant reason I think the Kraken could be more competitive. This is not to say Beniers will become a 75-80 point scorer, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he totals 50-plus points and comes close to 60. Shane Wright will probably contribute some, and bounce-back years from Yanni Gourde and Jaden Schwartz would go a long way.
The concern I have with the Kraken is goaltending. Philip Grubauer has not lived up to his six-year, $36 million contract. And though Joey Daccord was excellent a season ago, the Kraken need Grubauer to be at least league-average and take some of the pressure off Daccord.
The Kraken’s over/under for this season is 87.5, but I like their chances of hitting the over. They might not be a playoff team, but I can see them being in the 90-95-point range and competing for a playoff spot.
Minnesota Wild
2023-24 season: 39-34-9, 87 points, 6th in Central
The Minnesota Wild didn’t do much this offseason because of cap reasons, with Yakov Trenin being their lone addition. Still, they have decent bounce-back potential. They got off to an awful start last season but did fare better after John Hynes took over for Dean Evason behind the bench, totaling a 34-24-5 record. That’s a 95-point pace, which would have had them in the playoff race.
Anytime you have a player of Kirill Kaprizov’s caliber, your offense has a chance to be explosive, but there are some good pieces around him. Matt Boldy is one of the best young players in the NHL, while Marco Rossi had a solid rookie season in 2023-24. Brock Faber is a rising star, and the Wild should get a bounce-back season from Filip Gustavsson, who improved a bit after Hynes took over.
Similar to the Kraken, internal improvement could spring the Wild back into the playoff race. Marat Khustnutdinov figures to play a bottom-six role, and a healthy Jared Spurgeon would go a long way to giving the Wild a dependable blue line. Their O/U is 93.5, so Vegas thinks the Wild will be better than a season ago. I tend to agree, and they could challenge for a playoff spot in the Central, especially since the Winnipeg Jets look like prime regression candidates.
Buffalo Sabres
2023-24 season: 39-37-6, 84 points, 6th in Atlantic
I don’t want to get Sabres fans too excited, but you never know when young teams take a significant jump forward, and the Sabres have plenty of young talent on their roster. However, it starts with Lindy Ruff returning for his second stint as Sabres coach. His run with the New Jersey Devils didn’t end well, but he was instrumental in helping turn Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt into the players they are today.
The Devils had flaws under Ruff, but were consistently among the top teams in expected goals share (xG%) at five-on-five. I believe the Sabres will be much improved at five-on-five, and that could go a long way in helping young players like Jack Quinn, JJ Peterka and Dylan Cozens take steps forward.
Among the traits of a Ruff system is having some dynamic defensemen, and Rasmus Dahlin is certainly that. I expect him to thrive under Ruff, and Owen Power should benefit, too. The one question I have about the Sabres is goaltending. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was their 1A last season, but that’s not the concern.
I don’t have hard evidence for this, but I’ve always wondered if Ruff’s swarm system hurts his goaltenders. The Devils’ goaltending, aside from when Andrew Brunette was an assistant in 2022-23, was among the league’s worst. Some of that was on the goalies themselves, but it’s something to watch as the Sabres’ season begins.
Otherwise, I like this team on paper. The Sabres’ O/U is 88.5, but I could see the team getting close to 95 points and challenging someone like the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are vulnerable, for a playoff spot in the Atlantic.
New Jersey Devils
2023-24 season: 38-39-5, 81 points, 7th in Metro
Injuries were a significant reason the Devils missed the playoffs last season, but it was far from the only reason. Their goaltending was among the NHL’s worst before the trade deadline, and they were not the toughest team to play against. GM Tom Fitzgerald’s additions this offseason seemed to center around those concerns.
Most notably, Jacob Markström should provide the Devils with a significant upgrade in net. He finished in the top 10 in goals saved above expected a season ago, but the Devils don’t even need him to be that good. If he’s just an above-average netminder, this team could go places. And he’ll have a competent backup in Jake Allen.
However, Markström was far from the only addition the Devils made. They signed Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon in free agency to help shore up their blue line, and they bolstered their forward depth by signing Stefan Noesen and Tomáš Tatar in free agency and acquiring Paul Cotter from the Vegas Golden Knights.
Health will go a long way for the Devils, too. Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton and Timo Meier missed significant time last season; Hamilton played in just 20 games after tearing his pectoral muscle in late November. And even when Hughes and Meier did play, they were rarely at 100 percent. It’s not guaranteed, but they should have better injury luck this season.
I also expect Sheldon Keefe to make a difference behind the bench. The Toronto Maple Leafs may have only advanced past the first round of the playoffs once in Keefe’s five seasons, but they also made the playoffs every year without much trouble. He appears to be one of the better coaches in the NHL.
Plus, there should be some internal improvement from young Devils Luke Hughes and Šimon Nemec. The team put a lot on their plates last season because of their injury woes. And while they faced some adversity and hit the rookie wall at one point, that should benefit Hughes and Nemec moving forward. That experience could be invaluable as they enter their second seasons.
The Devils’ O/U is 100.5, tied for the highest in the Metropolitan with the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes. I won’t proclaim them Metropolitan Division favorites, but they should be in the race for first place with the Hurricanes and Rangers.
Pittsburgh Penguins
2023-24 season: 38-32-12, 88 points, 5th in Metro
If I had written this article a month ago, I probably wouldn’t have had the Penguins as potential bounce-back candidates. But Kyle Dubas was one of the more active GMs in August and made some moves that could help a Penguins team that’ll likely be on the bubble overtake other bubble teams they’ll be competing with.
It took a while, but the Jets finally moved Rutger McGroarty, and the Penguins were the team who won the sweepstakes, trading prospect Brayden Yager to acquire McGroarty. He might not have any pro experience, but McGroarty is a top prospect. He totaled 52 points in 36 games with the Michigan Wolverines last season and looks ready to compete for an NHL roster spot.
I wouldn’t call McGroarty the Penguins’ savior, but if he shows he’s ready for a top-six role with Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, he could perhaps push 20 goals and 40 points as a rookie. He has an NHL frame at 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, and a well-rounded game that could bring some new elements to the Penguins’ lineup.
Dubas also took a chance on Cody Glass, who struggled with the Nashville Predators a season ago. Glass wasn’t unlucky last season. He legitimately struggled, but he did total 14 goals and 35 points with the Predators in 2022-23. If he can get back to that, he’ll improve the Penguins’ depth, something they need to improve.
Finally, though the Penguins are not what they were at the peak of their powers, they still posted solid five-on-five results last season; their xG% of 51.24 percent ranked 13th in the NHL. They still have Crosby, Malkin and head coach Mike Sullivan, so I expect them to be a top-half-of-the-league five-on-five team. Their O/U is 90.5, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they edge other bubble teams like the New York Islanders and Washington Capitals to make the playoffs.
The Devils look like the team most poised for a bounce-back season, but I wouldn’t count out the others. Playoffs aren’t a guarantee for any of these teams, but I could see them pushing for spots. And who knows, maybe a couple of them surprise and knock out perennial contenders.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
