Alexander Ovechkin is poised to become the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer, and he’s not wasting any time. His red-hot start to the campaign (15 goals in 18 games played) gives the “Great 8″ an incredible jumpstart on “The Great One’s” career total of 894 goals.
A Concerning Setback
Ovechkin sits at 868 goals but has been on the injured reserve list since Nov. 18 after a knee-on-knee collision with Utah Hockey Club forward Jack McBain.
Ovi went down hard and couldn’t put much weight on his left leg. Then he got helped to the dressing room.
What an awful — and rare — sight it is to see him helped off the ice.pic.twitter.com/0towYHAIar
— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) November 19, 2024
The earliest estimation for him to be back in the lineup is Dec. 28 against the Toronto Maple Leafs after shedding the no-contact practice jersey this morning according to Tom Gulitti of NHL.com. Ovechkin has missed a mere 59 games over the course of his 19 NHL seasons. Despite the ill-fated pause of Ovechkin’s quest to break Gretzky’s goal record, his hot start gives his projected totals a comforting boost even with him missing an extended amount of games.
Ovechkin’s Goal Projections Based on His Current Pace
Based on Ovechkin’s current pace, minus the 16 estimated games missed due to his injury, he is projected to score 55 goals in 66 games this season. A big part of his goal-scoring comes on the power play. The Capitals average nearly three power plays per game, and four of his 15 goals have come on the man advantage. Based on his current pace, he is projected to score about 15 power play goals this season.
BACK-TO-BACK GOALS FOR OVI IN JUST MINUTES 🔥
Alex Ovechkin’s goal No. 856 and 857 give the Caps a 2-1 lead 💪 pic.twitter.com/54GmjfkVXf
— ESPN (@espn) October 29, 2024
Ovechkin averages 17:36 time on ice (TOI) this season. Of that time he spends 4:39 of it on the power play. Additionally, he begins his shifts heading toward or in the offensive zone 82.5% of the time, 14.2% start in the neutral zone, and the remaining 3.3% begin in the defensive zone according to MoneyPuck. This combined with his power play time supports his projected goal-scoring.
The Russian Iron Man
Throughout his career, Ovechkin has been a tank and has played in 96% of his games throughout his career. His goal numbers continued to rise despite having to navigate three incomplete seasons. In the lockout-shortened season in 2012-13, he played all 48 games. Then, when COVID-19 rocked the world, he remained steady, having missed one game during the 2019-20 season and 11 during the bubble year. The Moscow, Russia native has been a force throughout his career and I don’t see him intentionally slowing down. However, I don’t think Ovechkin will score above 50 goals this season. I don’t believe that Ovechkin will match his projected goals based on his pace so far, but I do believe that he will break the goal record and put up another spectacular season. It may even come against an all-too-familiar foe.
Ovechkin Will Break Goal Record Against His Oldest Rival
Despite the aforementioned projection, I think that he will score 42 goals this season and here’s why. Aside from Ovechkin’s blazing start to the season, there was a lot of doubt put on the Capitals with how competitive they’d be despite their numerous offseason additions. Coming into the season the Capitals were the 23rd-ranked team in the NHL, with a 19% chance of making the playoffs (from ‘NHL 2024-25 Stanley Cup Playoff Chances and Projected Standings,’ The Athletic, Dec. 20, 2024). The injury to Ovechkin’s leg could be a huge blow considering he is 39 years old. However, I think that all of these factors will ignite a fire inside the nine-time Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy winner to break the goal record sooner when he returns, so all of his focus can be on a playoff run.
The Capitals are second in the Metropolitan Division with a 21-8-2 record (44 points) in 31 games played. Ovechkin needs 27 goals to break the record, which would put him at 42 on the season. If he returns after the estimated 16-game absence, I think that he will break the record on April 17, the last game of the season, on the road against Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins. I’ll go even further and say that goal No. 42 will be the game-winner in overtime, sending the Capitals to the playoffs as the one seed.
It’s Only a Matter of Time Until the Great 8 Passes the Great One
In any sport, what makes a moment shine brighter is when it feels like it was written in a fairytale. What better way to make history than to do it against the biggest rival throughout Ovechkin’s career? Though, I don’t believe breaking the all-time goal record will be the end for Ovechkin, I believe he will go until his wheels fall off. His next chase? 1,000 goals. If anyone could do it, it’s the Great 8.
