The New Jersey Devils have been going through quite the rough skid, dropping nine of their last 11 contests. The Devils’ “big four” – Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier and Timo Meier – have seen their previous collective goal-scoring rate cut in half (0.4 G/GP -> 0.2 G/GP). (via Natural Stat Trick)
Meier has not scored a goal since December 31st against the Anaheim Ducks. His 31 points in 48 games would be his worst rate since the 2021 COVID-short season.
Many fans expect Meier to produce closer to his career norm of 30+ goals per season, especially given that he’s the Devils’ highest-paid forward, earning $8.8 million per year. However, it’s a little hard to tell how much of his raw production simply has to do with not getting as many opportunities, as a result of playing with more talent than when he scored at a 43-goal pace during his final two seasons in San Jose.
Related: Is Devils Prospect Simon Nemec Frustrated in AHL?
Keefe Gives Insight on Meier
The Hockey Writers asked Sheldon Keefe for his insight: “I think where his game is at, he’s like a lot of other guys trying to find it, trying to find his rhythm offensively,” Keefe said. “You know, at times, he’s maybe overthinking it a little bit, but he’s been a good player for us. He’s driving plays, getting us down in the offensive zone. He’s been physical. In terms of his numbers, I don’t look at that stuff. I really don’t over the course of the season. So I don’t know where he’s at. Obviously, he’s not on power play one. So that’s gonna take away some of your numbers and take some of the wind out of your sails a bit offensively, but that’s part of the deal. And he and I have talked about that. You know, he signed here, he committed long-term. He knew the talent that was around him and the type of team we’re trying to build. And, you know, we have him involved in our 6-on-5 situations, and he’s sort of the next man up on our power play quite frequently. He’s usually the first guy on the line change to come over the boards to begin the second unit, and be kind of that mix with the first unit. We want to get him those looks. To me, he’s eager to find his way back in his game. I don’t know where his game is at in terms of 5-on-5, historic numbers and stuff like that. I know as of late, it hasn’t been good, but there was a time that he was quite strong for us (…) We’ve got a lot of streaky scorers on our team. You know, there’s no 70-goal scorer like (Auston Matthews) in Toronto where I came from, and even those guys tend to be streaky…guys (here) who are getting 25, 35, 40, they’re very streaky. So, you’re going to get those ups and downs. It just so happens we’ve got a lot of (struggles) happening at the same time.”
In Meier’s two best seasons for the San Jose Sharks, he generated 1.17 expected goals per 60 minutes (ixG/60) at even strength, and scored 1.08 goals per 60 (GF/60). This season, from opening night up until Dec. 28, he generated 1.23 ixG/60, ~27% more than any other Devils forward (J. Hughes, 0.97). Even with a bit of poor finishing luck (0.89 GF/60), he still had 13 goals and 27 points in his first 37 games, a ~29 goal, 60-point pace despite not getting top power play minutes.
He had 29 power play goals between the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, and even had 10 last season for the Devils despite missing 13 games to injury. Right now, he just has three. That hasn’t been bad luck, it’s simply becoming a victim of circumstance. This season, Meier averages 1:40 of power play ice time (PP TOI) per game, compared to ~67% more in San Jose (2:47 PP TOI). Just based on that discrepancy alone, that’s costing Meier 4-7 goals. At his current pace, even with the slump, he’d still hover around a 32-33 goal pace if he were on the top unit.
With that all being said, there’s no reason for the Devils to change the current power play. They sit third in the league with a 28.2% conversion rate. It’s a luxury that they’re able to have someone as talented as Meier on their second unit.
Meier Still Needs to Improve
None of these numbers are an excuse for Meier’s recent play though, which has faltered along with the Devils’ entire offense since Dec. 28th. He’s created just 0.90 ixG/60, a ~27% decrease, and been completely snakebitten, scoring just 0.35 GF/60, a ~61% decrease. But that’s basically on par with the fall-off from all of the Devils’ key players, hence their 2-6-3 record in this span.
As Keefe said the other night, “When your best guys are clicking all at the same time, you’re probably thinking you’re better than you are. Then when they’re not going at the same time, you probably look like you’re worse than you are. That is kind of the reality of it.”
Fuel. Fire. Timo 🤬 Meier. pic.twitter.com/YGXtvkSp1O
— New Jersey Devils (@NJDevils) November 13, 2024
Furthermore, Meier is a plus-9 this season and Rono Hockey’s data puts him in the 76th percentile of league defense. His 83 hits are fourth on the team as well. And lastly, it’s certainly not his fault that Hischier and J. Hughes were locked up earlier in their Devils’ tenures, when the team took a bit of a gamble on their upsides. Otherwise, they’d be the highest-paid forwards. So the argument that Meier should be producing more than anyone else, solely based on contract, doesn’t really hold weight.
Meier is fully capable of putting together stretches where he’s one of the best in the league, like late last season where he scored 14 goals in 15 games. Once he starts to get his finishing touch back, he’ll be just fine.
