Last week, NHL insider Chris Johnston announced that the NHL and NHLPA forecasted a significant increase in the salary cap. For the 2024-25 season, the NHL has a limit of $88 million, but the salary cap is projected to rise as high as $113.5 million by 2027-28.
The rise in spending money is critical for a team like the Tampa Bay Lightning, who have been crunched against the salary cap for the past few seasons following back-to-back Stanley Cup championships. Allocating all their money to their stars, the Lightning haven’t been able to splurge on depth pieces compared to prior seasons or other playoff contenders. Tampa Bay hasn’t bolstered their bottom-six and third-pairing, as shallow scoring depth appears to be a trending issue with the roster. However, the Lightning are in good hands for the next few seasons with the rise in salary cap, and here’s why.
Lightning’s Core Locked Up With Upward Trending Salary Cap
How does a rise in the salary cap change a player’s cap hit for the next few seasons? JFresh, a writer and analytics advocate, used Aleksander Barkov of the Florida Panthers as an example, stating, “that $10M in 2025-26 will be the equivalent of $9.2M this year. In 2026-27, it’ll be the equivalent of $8.5M. In 2027-28, it’ll be the equivalent of $7.8M.”
The Lightning have six forwards, two defensemen, and their starting goaltender locked up past the 2027-28 season. The only player from that nine-player core who will need a new contract before 2027-28 is Nikita Kucherov, whose steal of a contract expires after the 2026-27 season. However, by that time, Kucherov will be 34 years old and likely won’t demand much more money for his services.
The Lightning have Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel, and Anthony Cirelli locked in for the next five seasons after 2024-25. The more exciting part is that all four players are between 26 and 30 years old, which means they will compete for the Stanley Cup in their prime. Furthermore, the backend of Victor Hedman, Erik Cernak, and Andrei Vasilevskiy between the pipes is under contract for the next three seasons. In other words, the Lightning contention window will likely last until around 2030 with the strategic contract negotiation and management of general manager Julien BriseBois.
Lightning Will Prioritize Depth in Coming Years
With their core players under contract, the Lightning can again emphasize the depth of their lineup like they did during their Stanley Cup runs. Tampa Bay will have plenty of cap space in the upcoming seasons and won’t have to worry about paying another star. Every young star and free agent will start demanding more money to meet the increasing salary cap. While players can’t negotiate a percentage of the salary cap for their contracts, agents will use previous deals and the rising cap as a framework for their clients to get the appropriate paycheck.
With more money, the Lightning can target bottom-six forwards to provide more offensive impact. Rather than having two lines that can score, Tampa Bay wants to get back that four-line juggernaut. After all, the Syracuse Crunch have produced defenders through the pipeline like Darren Raddysh, Nick Perbix, Max Crozier, and Declan Carlile, so defensive depth isn’t as much of a priority for now. With the rising salary cap, what should the Lightning do for the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline?
Stay the Course For the Remainder of 2024-25
With the rising salary cap projections, the Lightning don’t need to forfeit draft picks and future assets at the trade deadline this season. This season isn’t the Lightning’s chance to win. The depth isn’t strong enough for a deep playoff push, so rather than overpaying for rental pieces, the Lightning should continue to count on their youth and development this season.
Related: Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline Target: Mario Ferraro
Then, Tampa Bay can add pieces when they gain cap space for the 2025-26 season. Save those assets to make a splash in the next season or two, when the team will have a solid bottom-six and assets to sell to rebuilding teams.
Salary cap information via PuckPedia
