Drafting is hard.
No matter how good an NHL team is at finding hidden gems, every one of them has picked a handful of duds. Unless you’re taking one of the five best players available, it’s almost impossible to know how a draft pick will turn out. As The Hockey Writers’ Jacob Billington pointed out, there’s only about a 50% chance that a player picked just outside the top 10 plays 300 NHL games, with significantly diminishing returns the later the pick. But even the top picks aren’t guaranteed to hit; who would have guessed that Alexandre Daigle, described as ‘the next Gretzky’ after scoring 137 points in just 53 games in junior, would top out at 51 points in the NHL?
The Senators are all too aware of how that 1993 NHL Entry Draft turned out. Two Hall-of-Famers were selected in the next three picks, and the third ended up playing over 1000 NHL games over his 15-year career. But it’s hard to fault Ottawa for that decision, as any other team would have made the same selection in their place.
However, the same cannot be said for all of the Senators’ picks. While luck has a lot to do with finding top players, so does making the right decision at the right time. Here are five times that Ottawa made the wrong choice on the draft floor.
Even though it’s less than five years old, it’s hard to make an argument for a worse Senators draft class than 2021. Only three of the six players selected are still with the organization and the only one who has played NHL games was a second-round pick. While it’s not uncommon to whiff on multiple picks, what makes this draft class especially bad is how passionately the franchise defended their selections and how quickly they backtracked in the following years.
Starting with the team’s first pick, the Senators grabbed Tyler Boucher 10th overall. This selection drew the majority of ire from Senators fans. No publicly-available list projected him to go any higher than 16th while others considered him a second-round pick. The pushback from fans prompted Director of Scouting Trent Mann to go to the media and defend the selection by implying the public doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
“If we move back eight spots, is Tyler Boucher still going to be there? You know what? He’s not going to be there. I know that, Pierre Dorion knows that, and the general public doesn’t know that. They don’t have to know that, it’s not their job. For us, Tyler Boucher is another step in the Senators getting better and being what we want. I know Tyler Boucher is going to go 10 to 20. I know and the public list doesn’t know what we know.”
Director of Scouting Trent Mann (from ‘SNAPSHOTS: Senators’ chief scout Trent Mann says he deals in reality and he feels good about club’s choices,’ Ottawa Sun – 24/07/2021).
Criticizing the fans is not a great way to build confidence in a pick and, while some held out hope that it would work out like Brady Tkachuk and Shane Pinto, unfortunately, the pessimists have been proven right. In his second season in the American Hockey League (AHL), Boucher has just five points in 28 games and is still struggling to stay healthy.
The Senators then went on a run of low-impact picks, adding big defenceman Ben Roger, Swedish winger Oliver Johansson, another gritty depth forward Carson Latimer, and towering blueliner Chandler Romeo, giving Ottawa’s lineup a good blend of size and skill. Less than two years later, the team released Roger, Latimer, and Romeo without contracts and has yet to offer one to Johansson, who doesn’t look like he’ll ever make his way to Ottawa.
Had the Senators decided to pick the most skilled player regardless of position, they could have had Cole Sillinger, who went 12th overall, or elite goalie prospect Jesper Wallstedt, who was 21st. They also skipped over Matthew Knies and Aatu Raty in the second round, defensive defenceman Ethan del Mastro in the third round, and another skilled scorer in Joshua Roy in the fourth. Ottawa’s focus on adding big-bodied role players left them with almost nothing. Thankfully, second-round pick Zach Ostapchuk has worked out so far, but it’s a small consolation prize for a disastrous draft.
2. Trading the 16th Overall Pick in 2010
Whereas the Senators 2021 Draft can be criticized for its inaction, the 2010 Draft is the polar opposite. Ahead of the draft, the Senators were looking to add to their core. Led by the ageless Daniel Alfredsson and blossoming Jason Spezza, the Senators already had Erik Karlsson, Nick Foligno, Jared Cowen, Jakub Silfverberg, Mike Hoffman, and Patrick Wiercioch all either in the NHL or close to it. But, when the St. Louis Blues made star defensive prospect David Rundblad available, Ottawa jumped on it, sending the 16th-overall pick in exchange.
On paper, the deal made sense. Rundblad was the 17th-overall pick from the year before and a World Juniors hero, helping Sweden win a silver and bronze medal in back-to-back years, but the Blues were convinced they could get someone better at the draft. Ottawa was more than happy to help and add another top blueliner to their group. Yet, despite posting 94 points the previous season, they lacked a top-six scorer, and that’s exactly who the Blues got with their newly-acquired pick in Vladimir Tarasenko.
Both the Blues and Senators had to wait a little while before their new prospects came over to North America, but once they did, the gap between them was palpable. Tarasenko quickly became an All-Star in St. Louis and helped them claim their first Stanley Cup in 2019. Rundblad played just 24 games with the Senators before he was dealt to the Phoenix Coyotes along with a second-round pick for Kyle Turris. Ironically, that deal helped the Senators address their original scoring issue, with Turris leading the team in points in 2012-13 and playing a big role in their second-round appearance. But winning a single playoff round is hardly enough to erase it from being one of the worst deals in Senators’ history.
3. Not Picking Tuukka Rask in 2005
The 2003-04 Senators needed to find a new goalie. Then-starter Patrick Lalime had regressed after his Conference Final appearance in 2002-03, leading Ottawa to sign Dominik Hasek to a one-year deal after yet again bowing out in the first round of the playoffs. Lalime was then dealt to the Blues for a fourth-round pick in 2005, putting a sad period at the end of a great run with the team.
Related: Status of NHL Rebuilds: Senators, Sabres, Canadiens & Red Wings
However, despite having one of the greatest goalies in NHL history between the pipes, the Senators still didn’t have much depth behind him, and it seemed like it would make sense for the Senators to add a goalie with the ninth-overall pick at the 2005 Draft. Top North American goalie Carey Price would likely be gone by then, but the top-ranked European netminder, Tuukka Rask, was an intriguing option. “There were some rumours that Ottawa would pick me,” said Rask in 2023. “That was the most interaction I had from all the teams, and then after that, I had no idea (what would happen).”
Instead, Ottawa selected mobile defenceman Brian Lee, who couldn’t stay healthy after turning pro and was later dealt to the Lightning for Matt Gilroy in 2011-12. Rask, on the other hand, fell to the Toronto Maple Leafs at 21st overall, who almost immediately traded to the Boston Bruins for Andrew Raycroft. He didn’t leave Finland until 2007-08 and bounced between the NHL and American Hockey League (AHL) until 2009-10 when he finally took over as the Bruins’ starter. A year later, he had a Stanley Cup ring, and by 2013-14, he had his name on the Vezina Trophy as the best goalie that season.
While Rask was flourishing, the Senators’ crease was in constant disarray. After Hasek left, Ray Emery took the team to the Stanley Cup Final but fell apart the following season. He was replaced with Martin Gerber, who was then replaced by Alex Auld, who only lasted a season before Brian Elliott split duties with Pascal Leclaire. The goalie carousel lasted until 2011 when the Senators brought in Craig Anderson, who became Ottawa’s greatest goalie of all time, but his stellar performances were too late to bring Ottawa their first championship.
To add insult to injury, Anze Kopitar, who has the second-most points in his draft class behind Sidney Crosby, was selected two picks after the Senators picked Lee, and one pick after him, the New York Rangers selected Marc Staal, who played the exact kind of reliable, shutdown defence Ottawa hoped Lee could provide. While there was a world where Lee emerged as a top-pairing defender, the Senators’ decision to pass on three solid players set their franchise back years and likely cost them a Stanley Cup.
4. Drafting Mathieu Chouinard Twice
2005 was not the first time the Senators entered the draft with questions in net. In 1998, the team employed the dynamic duo of Ron Tugnutt and Damien Rhodes, who pushed Ottawa into the playoffs for the first time in 1996-97, but neither could be described as a top starter in the NHL. So, with the 15th-overall pick in 1998, they selected Mathieu Chouinard. Considered the second-best goalie of his draft class, he promised to be the Senators’ goalie of the future which was all but confirmed when he won the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL, now the Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League) MVP and Defensive Player of the Year in 1998-99. General manager Marshall Johnston even publicly voiced disappointment when he wasn’t added to Canada’s roster for the 2000 World Juniors.
However, during all this, the Senators had yet to talk contracts with Chouinard. Instead, they waited until the very last minute to make their goalie of the future a low-ball offer before he would have to re-enter the NHL Draft. It was a slimy tactic; either he would have to sign below what was expected of a first-round pick or give up his chance to play for the Senators.
“I actually called Marshall myself. I asked him if there was a vendetta against my agent Gilles Lupien. He said there wasn’t. But he said, ‘We think we should have drafted you in the second round. And you’re worth second-round money.’”
Mathieu Chouinard to Ian Mendes (from ‘Senators draft tales: The saga of Mathieu Chouinard, picked twice by Ottawa,’ The Athletic – 06/07/2022).
The Senators have always had money issues and it was no different in 1999-00, but there was also no limit for entry-level deals and first-round picks were often given over $1 million. Given that Ottawa reached to grab him in 1998, Chouinard felt disrespected by the lone offer, so he happily re-entered the 2000 Draft and looked forward to a new opportunity elsewhere. Unfortunately, Ottawa had other plans and picked him again with the 45th pick. “We felt like it was a free pick,” said Johnston when recalling the selection to Mendes. “We had the chance to take him again.”
Now the Senators had Chouinard between a rock and a hard place. If he wanted to pursue his dream of playing in the NHL, he had to sign with Ottawa, but the offer was now half of the original. Of course, he signed, but he didn’t like it and couldn’t hide his disdain for the franchise when he arrived at his first NHL training camp. That put him in the dog house of many of the Senators’ coaching staff, and after three years, he never got a chance to play an NHL game. He left the team as soon as he became a free agent, signing with the Los Angeles Kings in 2003-04, where he played less than three minutes in relief of Cristobal Huet.
Although the Senators didn’t miss out on any stars by selecting Chouinard – Simon Gagne was probably the best option on the board in 1998 but would have also been a big reach – they messed up by forcing a player to sign a bad contract, setting their entire relationship on the wrong foot. With that in mind, almost any other prospect would have been a better pick in 2000 as it was clear that there was no fixing that relationship.
5. Using a Laptop at the 1992 Expansion Draft
The Senators have made several more blunders on the draft floor, but only one lives in infamy across the NHL. Almost every hockey fan of a certain age knows about the Senators’ 1992 Expansion Draft and the infamous words, “Ottawa apologizes.”
Mel Bridgman, former player who became the first Ottawa Senators GM and presided over their draft debacle. “Ottawa apologizes”
And if you don’t know that story ask nicely and I’ll tell it tonight. pic.twitter.com/eWWEqgucAZ
— Jen (@NHLhistorygirl) July 14, 2023
Ottawa was ecstatic when the city was granted an NHL expansion franchise in 1990 for the 1992-93 season. They had been part of the original lineup in 1917 but lost their team in 1934 due to a lack of money and fans. But when they sat down at the Montreal Forum on Jun 18, 1992, to make their first picks as a franchise, everyone realized they were sorely underprepared. Their general manager, Mel Bridgman, retired from playing just two years before he was hired in 1991 and had never managed or scouted, let alone coached a day in his life. They also realized with growing horror that they had forgotten to charge their laptop which held all their draft notes before they arrived. With nowhere to charge it before the draft, they’d have to pick blind.
It went about as well as you could imagine. Drafting alongside Phil Esposito and the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Senators made three ineligible selections, forcing Bridgman each time to return to the stage and utter the phrase, “Ottawa apologizes.” First, it was after he tried to select Todd Ewen from the Montreal Canadiens without realizing Montreal had already lost two players. Then, it was Todd Hawkins from the Maple Leafs, who also already lost two players. Finally, Ottawa tried to select second-year pro, C.J. Young, who was never eligible in the first place.
While the Senators didn’t miss out on a lot of talent, their inability to construct a cohesive team had ramifications that echoed through the franchise for years. It’s hard not to see the thread of ineptitude that eventually forced them to declare bankruptcy in 2000, which allowed Eugene Melnyk to purchase the team. Although he saved the franchise, his ownership style also cost the team many free agents and talented draft picks because he refused to pay top dollar, which led to the Senators’ most recent rebuild and thus influenced their current issues. Just look at the previous draft blunders; they refused to pay Chouinard what he deserved, misdiagnosed team needs, and targeted cheaper depth options instead of high-skill players. All because Ottawa didn’t write down their draft lists.
