NHL free agency was never like this. A lot of good players will pay a price

It will be an NHL free-agency day like no other.

For one thing, it’s happening on Oct. 9, not July 1 — messing around with the Thanksgiving weekend instead of Canada Day.

Unlike previous years, teams were not allowed a three-day window to talk to players beforehand, although a few did get permission.

Oh yes, and it’s all happening in the midst of a worldwide pandemic.

The impact of COVID-19 has cut the budgets of any number of NHL teams. That’s kept the salary cap flat at $81.5 million (U.S.).

But some of what teams will be spending, starting at noon Friday, is Monopoly money. Twenty per cent of everything the players get will go into an escrow account, and will almost certainly be put back into the owners’ pockets in the end to maintain a 50/50 split of hockey revenue.

Read Kevin McGran’s Breakaway Blog on Friday for updates on NHL free-agent signings

On the eve of the market opening, managers and player agents alike were trying to figure out what it all means.

“It’s going to have a huge impact on many teams,” Oilers GM Ken Holland said of the flat cap.

“I don’t think anybody truly knows,” said Sharks GM Doug Wilson. “This is not anything we’ve ever gone through before. But it depends on teams and what phase they’re in. The good players are going to do very well. When the cap stays flat, there’s a squeeze somewhere in the system.”

Agent Anton Thun figures the middle class will feel it the most.

“In this marketplace, there is no such thing as a mid-range player,” said Thun. “You’re either going to be above the Mendoza line (elite), or taking what the team wants you to take.

“I don’t see there being a lot of deals in that mid-range, where term is three years and the average annual value is $3 million — unless the player expected a five-year term and $5 million. That’s the player that’s going to get hit.”

And plenty of players have taken hits already:

Foreseeing a market where there could be bargains, Holland made his choice.

Likewise in Ottawa with forward Anthony Duclair, Detroit with defenceman Madison Bowey and forward Brendan Perlini, the Maple Leafs with centre Frederik Gauthier.

In all, 29 restricted free agents who played at least 20 games last year were not tendered offers, becoming unrestricted. Most of them are under 25.

So, there are more unrestricted free agents than usual, with less money to sign them.

“There’s going to be some players that are going to be in the low millions, where you’d say: Holy mackerel, I didn’t think that player would ever sign for a million bucks,” said Thun. “But in this marketplace, there’s going to be potentially valuable players signing for lower numbers, simply because they want a job for another year.”

The players who get big money — and there will be a few, such as forward Taylor Hall and defenceman Alex Pietrangelo — will likely want back-loaded deals since three or four years down the line there will be more money in the system, and the escrow percentage of money they pay back will be less.

The contract extension worked out between the league and the players prior to the playoffs fixed escrow at 20 per cent this year, with reductions each following year for the life of the deal.

“The number of players that are going to hit substantial contracts in this marketplace will be less than in the past,” said Thun. “The longer-term deals will be back-loaded, because the escrow has been determined, and the players would want to pay six per cent instead of 20 per cent, even if it’s two or three years down the road.”

This could be a one-year blip.

There will be more money in the system next year, with the expansion Seattle Kraken coming aboard and filling their roster. So some players — even ones with top-flight resumés — might just want to take a short-term deal, hoping to cash in later.

“With no interview period, I really don’t know what free agency is going to look like,” said Leafs GM Kyle Dubas. “It’s almost impossible to know how things will look on Friday, and into the weekend.”

He suggested the signings could spread across a few days, or even a week, as teams, agents and players tried to figure out this new market. Friday’s television coverage of the market could end up being less dramatic than hoped.

“Truth is, I think it’s individual, on an ad hoc basis, what works for each team, what works for each player,” said Panthers GM Bill Zito. “For me, it’s wait, be patient and react to what our team needs and what’s out there, because you really don’t know. There’s always surprises.”