The Vegas Golden Knights were a juggernaut during the 2021 NHL regular season, and in the West Division finals, they made the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche look like pretenders.
Meanwhile, the Montreal Canadiens seemed to make the North Division bracket by default as the No. 4 seed. And yet, they shocked the heavily favored Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round, before even more shockingly sweeping the heavily favored Winnipeg Jets in division finals.
So will it be the Canadiens returning to the Stanley Cup Final — and looking to bring the Cup back to Canada for the first time since they did it in 1993 — or will the Golden Knights get another shot at the Cup after nearly winning in their inaugural season?
Let’s break it down position-by-position, assess the special teams and injury status of both clubs and make a series pick.
Note: Advanced stats are from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
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First line: Here’s a matchup between two of the best defensive forwards in the game: Montreal’s Phillip Danault and Vegas’ Mark Stone. In the Colorado series, Vegas coach Peter DeBoer often matched Stone’s line against Avs star Nathan MacKinnon. Stone, Chandler Stephenson and Max Pacioretty did a great job stifling the Avs star forwards after the Game 1 blowout.
Danault’s line can match Vegas’ physicality, with Brendan Gallagher and Artturi Lehkonen. The Habs trio also has a great track record so far of shutting down stars. Danault, specifically, was critical in thwarting Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner in the first round. The Golden Knights’ top line has more offensive potential, though. Pacioretty, who got a late start to the postseason nursing an injury, has been producing at a point-per-game pace. Advantage: Vegas
Forward depth: Both of these teams like to roll out four lines, and can get contributions from everywhere. Vegas saw its second line of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson and Reilly Smith — a.k.a. the “Misfits Line,” as all three are original members of the franchise — flourish against Colorado. After scoring just one goal in the first round, Marchessault popped off for five goals in six games against the Avs.
Montreal has offensive potential sprinkled throughout the lineup — specifically with rookie sensation Cole Caufield earning a permanent spot — as well as defensive responsibility. Both teams are well built and well balanced. While Vegas, generally, has had more offensive production, Montreal boasts some battle-tested playoff veterans like Corey Perry and Eric Staal, who can be X factors in a series like this. Advantage: Tie
Defense: For the first three years of the Golden Knights’ existence, they didn’t have a true No. 1 defenseman. They signed former Blues captain Alex Pietrangelo in free agency last year, and he’s been exactly that. DeBoer called Pietrangelo the best player in the entire Avs-Knights series, as the Knights feel great about their first pair of Pietrangelo and veteran Alec Martinez. Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore have emerged as a fantastic second pairing while Nick Holden, who was seldom-used in the regular season, has stepped into the third pairing role nicely alongside Zach Whitecloud.
Defense is a point of strength for the Canadiens, who have limited teams to just 2.18 goals per game this postseason. It begins with captain Shea Weber, of course, but Jeff Petry is also a big factor, and the Habs aren’t sure if he’ll be available for Game 1. Rookie Alexander Romanov drew into the lineup by the end of the Jets’ series, but don’t be surprised if the Canadiens rotate some defensemen through the bottom pairing. They have the depth. Advantage: Vegas
Goaltending: Reports of Carey Price‘s demise were largely exaggerated. Scratch that. He might not be the same regular-season goalie he once was, but Price shows up in the playoffs. Even in a final four featuring two Vezina Trophy finalists, the 33-year-old is standing out with a .935 save percentage and 1.97 goals against average this postseason. “He’s really in the zone and he wants to win. He gives us a chance to win every game,” Danault said. “He gives us wings.”
On the other end is Marc-Andre Fleury, who is having a magical season for Vegas. Fleury let in a few goals he’d like back in the Colorado series, but overall has been a steady backbone for Vegas this postseason, showing up when it matters most. The Golden Knights have Robin Lehner waiting on the bench. The team hung Lehner out to dry by putting him in for Game 1 in the second round, when the rest of the team was gassed and played poorly in front of him. It will be interesting to see how DeBoer manages the workload, and if Lehner gets any more action so he doesn’t get too rusty. Advantage: Tie
Coaching: Both of these coaches have their teams buying in right now. DeBoer made defensive adjustments after his team was exposed in Game 1, which worked seamlessly. From Game 2 on, Vegas clogged Colorado in the neutral zone, making puck possession and clean entries impossible for the Avs, and that’s typically what the Avs do best. Dominique Ducharme took over as interim coach after the team fired Claude Julien this season, and has brought out a lot of good in his players. He’s also made some bold lineup decisions. Though those personnel choices haven’t always been popular with fans, look at where the Habs are now. DeBoer has much more experience in the postseason, having coached more than 100 playoff games. Advantage: Vegas
Health: The Golden Knights aren’t managing any major injuries. Montreal is, though. Ducharme said he wasn’t confident that defensemen Jeff Petry and Jon Merrill would be available for Game 1. Same for Jake Evans, the forward who was concussed by Mark Scheifele in Game 1 of the second round. However, Ducharme said the team is hopeful all three players could return in this series. Advantage: Vegas
Special teams: The Canadiens have an excellent penalty kill, allowing just three goals on 31 opportunities (90.3%). They’ve actually scored more shorthanded goals than their opponents have scored on the power play. The Habs lead NHL teams with four shorthanded goals this postseason; no other team has more than one. The whistle wasn’t blown much in Vegas’ second-round series, but for the postseason, they are only operating at 71.4% on the penalty kill. The Habs are clicking on just 18.8% of their power plays, but Vegas is even worse, at 14.3%. Advantage: Montreal
Series pick: Golden Knights in 6. The Habs have made an unexpected run to the final four, though upon closer inspection, you realize Montreal is kind of built for the playoffs. Their defensive structure was good enough to thwart Toronto and Winnipeg, but just isn’t a match for the Golden Knights, who are balanced and play with a dangerously good blend of speed and physicality.