Welcome to THW’s 2021-22 Norris Trophy tracker, an ever-shifting ranking of the NHL’s top defensemen to be updated monthly throughout the entirety of the regular season. The NHL calendar has turned to March, meaning that each of the league’s 32 franchises has played through about three-quarters of their entire schedule. This provides a greater sample size to work with and allows us to sift through the noise and variance inherent to the opening salvo of the regular season.
Before we set out to the updated list, a few qualifying criteria should be established ahead of time to avoid potential gripes with the methodology or order. As always, these are subjective rankings meant to initiate discussion, so feel free to disagree (civilly) in the comments and offer your own picks.
First, five-on-five play is highly valued in these rankings, as power-play deployment greatly skews rates of production and fails to present a coherent evaluation of a defenseman’s overall impact. Next, a player’s reputation is largely ignored as an annual trophy should not be a quasi-lifetime achievement award; this season’s results matter most, but special cases can be made as it’s still early to make sweeping conclusions. Last, advanced statistics are critical tools in moving past superficial analysis (looking solely at boxscore stats, for example), and form the basis of reasoning for these rankings. With that being said, let’s dig in.
Note: Defensemen must have played in at least 75% of their team’s total games to qualify for this ranking.
February Rankings: 1. Adam Fox, 2. Victor Hedman, 3. Cale Makar, 4. Roman Josi, 5. Aaron Ekblad
5. Aaron Ekblad, Florida Panthers
2021-22 Stats: 61 GP – 15 G – 42 A – 57 PTS – 24:55 ATOI
It’s a shame that Aaron Ekblad suffered a lower-body injury in an anxiety-ridden reminiscent of last year’s season-ending collision. Although he’s likely to return for the playoffs, the most recent injury essentially marks an end to his otherwise outstanding 2021-22 Norris campaign.
The 26-year-old Ekblad took the next step offensively this season, flashing the tantalizing two-way potential which made him the first-overall selection in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft. He’s posted career-highs in assists (42) and points (57), and would likely eclipse his 16 tallies from the 2017-18 season if it were not for his unfortunate injury.
Although the boxscore numbers are what drives Norris discussion these days, Ekblad has been a force at 5v5 this season. With the 6-foot-4 behemoth on the ice, the Florida Panthers account for 59% of expected goals (xGF%), 58.9% of all shots (SF%), and 63.4% of actual goals (GF%). Those marks all sit within the top five or 10 of all defensemen this season (minimum 300 minutes played), and almost none of those ahead of him plays more difficult minutes than Ekblad.
Also working in Ekblad’s favour is his usage on the penalty kill, as his 166 total shorthanded minutes rank 18th among blueliners this season, and his impact on scoring chances puts him in the top-third of qualified skaters (minimum 50 minutes played). Of the four defensemen ahead of him in these rankings, only one other player joins him in the top 50 by cumulative ice time.
It’s not a stretch to say that this is the most talented team in franchise history. Florida’s 2021-22 points percentage (PTS%) of .730 is the best rate they’ve ever posted, and with 19 games remaining on the schedule, the Panthers’ all-time mark of 103 points (set in 2015-16) should be obliterated by season’s end. Florida leads the NHL in goals (4.1) and goal differential (1.19) per game and look set to take the Eastern Conference playoffs by storm. Not to mention, they added one of the trade deadline’s most coveted players in Claude Giroux for a relatively modest price. Is this the year they break through to the Stanley Cup Final?
4. Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning
2021-22 Stats: 63 GP – 17 G – 45 A – 62 PTS – 25:20 ATOI
After a down year in which he was hampered by a nagging knee injury that eventually required surgery, Victor Hedman has returned to the Norris discussion with a vengeance. It’s a testament to how loaded the field is this year that the hulking Swede ranks this low, but it’s not a slight against his immense two-way impact.
Even with key contributors in Nikita Kucherov (35 games missed this season) and Brayden Point (14) absent for good chunks of the year, Hedman has driven the bus in Tampa Bay. His 62 points are second behind Steven Stamkos for team scoring and fourth league-wide at his position.
Hedman is equally as effective while shorthanded, utilizing his size and positioning to snuff out opposing setups. Among defenders with at least 50 minutes played on the penalty kill this season, he ranks 10th in expected goals against (xGA), ninth in shots against (SA), and 32nd in goals against (GA) per-60. The last mark is mostly due to the play of the goaltender, but it still sits within the top-fifth of qualified defenders.
The Lightning are on the cusp of winning a third-successive Stanley Cup, an unprecedented feat in the salary cap era. After an offseason where the team understandably shed a number of significant contributors from their past two title runs, they’re still challenging for the divisional crown in the cutthroat Atlantic. Since making his debut in 2009-10, only seven other players have featured in more playoff games than Hedman, and only three have amassed more cumulative minutes. Tampa Bay might be depleted, but don’t count them out when their decorated on-ice general is still around.
3. Adam Fox, New York Rangers
2021-22 Stats: 62 GP – 10 G – 54 A – 64 PTS – 24:05 ATOI
While his 2021-22 campaign has been great by any standard, Adam Fox hasn’t hit the heights of last season where he claimed what should be the first of many Norris wins. Even so, he sits third in defensive scoring (64), and his 31 primary assists in all situations lead all blueliners. What’s holding him back are his 5v5 on-ice numbers in terms of shot- and scoring chance-share, easily the weakest of his closest competitors.
When Fox plays, the New York Rangers are plus-4 in goal differential, but just fail to break even in terms of shot attempts and chance quality. Even so, every other regular Rangers defenseman has posted worse results than Fox, significantly so in some cases. Compared to the rest of the NHL, the Rangers wallow in the bottom-third by every relevant possession-based metric. Consequently, he shouldn’t be overly penalized because the team as a whole struggle to drive play at 5v5. To add some more context, let’s look at his on-off numbers.
Among qualified defenders (minimum 300 minutes at 5v5), Fox ranks 31st in terms of his impact on his team’s xGF differential at 5v5. With the American on the ice, the Rangers are 0.22 xG better per-60 (xG estimates chance quality) compared to when he sits. He has to drag New York to even-strength relevance, but his impact is still surpassed by the other Norris hopefuls.
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If it weren’t for a scorching power play (second at 26.6% conversion) and a Hart Trophy candidate in net with Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers likely sit with the league’s bottom-dwellers. It’s not fair to discount those aspects as they are part of what drives an NHL team’s success, but it’s worth keeping an eye on when the postseason comes around and the referees swallow their whistles. New York’s trade deadline additions should help in this regard, but it’s difficult to flip the switch this late in the season.
Fox has taken a noticeable step forward this season, but the strength of the field pushes his admirable efforts to the wayside. In any case, expect the 23-year-old to feature prominently in the Norris discussion for the next decade and change.
2. Roman Josi, Nashville Predators
2021-22 Stats: 63 GP – 18 G – 61 A – 79 PTS – 25:15 ATOI
Since the publishing of the last Norris rankings on February 13th, no defenseman has been as prolific offensively as the Nashville Predators’ Roman Josi. In 17 games over that span, the Swiss dynamo ranks third in blueline goalscoring (five), and first in assists (27) and points (32). He’s not only feasting on the power play either, as his 16 even-strength points are second at his position during that time.
To further illustrate Josi’s dominance, let’s turn to Corey Sznajder’s micro-stat tracking data. According to the numbers, Josi leads all defensemen in controlled zone entries (with possession of the puck), primary shot assists (the last pass before a shot is taken), and is near the top in scoring chances coming off of zone entries and shots, all per 60 minutes. With Nashville’s somewhat limited scoring ranks, Josi is forced to function as a fourth forward, and this reality is borne out in the data.
Despite his overwhelming ability to dictate play in attack, Josi doesn’t shirk his defensive duties. In over 1200 5v5 minutes of ice time this season (second to only Brent Burns), Josi controls a 52% share of xGF, 51% of SF, and 59.1% of actual goals. Even while shouldering the burden of Nashville’s offensive gameplan, the captain thrives. Apart from the rearguard occupying the top spot on the March Norris rankings, no one better epitomizes the modern NHL defenseman than Josi.
The Predators are holding onto a Western Conference wildcard spot for dear life as the regular season winds down. They sit four points ahead of the Vegas Golden Knights and six over the Winnipeg Jets with two and one games in hand on them respectively. If the team can hold on, Josi’s Norris Trophy bid becomes that much more difficult to ignore.
1. Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
2021-22 Stats: 61 GP – 24 G – 49 A – 73 PTS – 25:26 ATOI
After an impressive start to his NHL career, all eyes were on Cale Makar to see if he could break into the league’s elite at his position. It’s arguable he already had after being named a Norris finalist last season, but it’s a testament to his potential that people were already expecting him to hit another gear. When your rate of 1.02 points per game is fifth all-time during seasons played before turning 24, Hall-of-Fame level expectations are sure to follow. To put it simply, he’s exceeded those lofty benchmarks this season.
| Games Played | Points | Points Per Game | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Orr | 343 | 471 | 1.37 |
| Mark Howe | 426 | 504 | 1.18 |
| Paul Coffey | 394 | 464 | 1.18 |
| Brian Leetch | 317 | 331 | 1.04 |
| Cale Makar | 162 | 167 | 1.03 |
Makar paces all rearguards in goalscoring this season (24 goals) and ranks second in scoring, his 73 points in 60 games sitting behind only Josi in all situations. Although he’s no stranger to the power play, Makar’s productivity at 5v5 (leads NHL defenders with 1.94 points per-60-minutes) and defensive prowess push him above his Swiss counterpart.
Makar’s 57.6% xGF% and 57% FF% (score-adjusted) both outstrip Josi’s on-ice impact, and it’s not just because of playing for the juggernaut Avalanche. In over 400 5v5 minutes played without the presence of Colorado’s renowned top forward line, Makar still boasts marks of 53.5% xGF% and 52.7% FF%. He tilts the ice significantly in his team’s favour, whether he can lean on his esteemed teammates or not.
Makar boasts a positive penalty differential of plus-7 (11 drawn, four taken) at even strength, the most favourable ratio of the five defensemen on this list. He leverages his ability to rapidly shift direction to great effect, leaving opponents with no choice but to commit infractions to impede his progress. Blueliners often struggle to maintain a clean ledger given the amount of time they spend on the ice and defending, but Makar is able to do so without resorting to illegally obstructing opposing players.
With how much the voters love to honour those who have never won a given award, it appears as though the Norris is Makar’s to lose this season. He’s yet to add the accolade to his trophy cabinet, and he arguably should have won it over Fox last season. As the Avalanche close in on a second-consecutive Presidents’ Trophy (and a franchise record in points to boot), the third-year defenseman has the individual and team arguments to sway the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) at awards time.
2021-22 Norris Trophy Honourable Mentions
Here are five additional honourable mentions – in no particular order – to round out this edition of the top 10: Miro Heiskanen, (Dallas Stars); Quinn Hughes, (Vancouver Canucks); Kris Letang, (Pittsburgh Penguins); Charlie McAvoy, (Boston Bruins); and Jaccob Slavin (Carolina Hurricanes).
Next Norris Trophy Tracker Update: April 2022
Let me know in the comments if I’ve overlooked any worthy candidates, and check back in April to find out which defender leads the Norris Trophy race after another month’s worth of games.
Data courtesy of All Three Zones, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference, MoneyPuck, and Natural Stat Trick. Statistics are accurate as of March 26th, 2022.
Marko is an aspiring sportswriter with a passion for crafting stories while using a combination of the eye-test and (shudder) analytics, which is complemented by an academic background in criminology and political science.
When not covering the Colorado Avalanche and Pittsburgh Penguins for The Hockey Writers, he can also be found pouring countless hours into various sports video games franchises, indulging in science fiction novels, and taking long runs around his neighbourhood.
Marko can be reached through his personal blog at unexpectedgoals.ca, and you can yell at him by following him on Twitter and other social media seen under articles like this one.