While we await the decision on Ilya Samsonov’s arbitration, which is supposed to happen on Sunday, we can’t help but notice that the Toronto Maple Leafs are not committing much beyond the 2023-24 season. Of the four unrestricted free agents (UFAs) they have signed, only one is for over a year.
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That signee is enforcer Ryan Reaves, whose contract is for three years at $1.35 million per season. Tyler Bertuzzi ($5.5 million), John Klingberg ($4.15 million), and Max Domi ($3 million) have all signed for just one season.
The Shape of Samsonov’s Upcoming Contract
With Samsonov’s next deal going to be for whatever amount the arbitrator decides, it is being reported that the contract will be for just one season. The Maple Leafs put forth a proposal for Samsonov’s contract at $2.4 million. His agent had countered with a proposal of $4.9 million. By NHL CBA rules the arbitrator can decide any amount within that range.
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Samsonov’s deal is not an either/or proposition. The halfway point between the two amounts is $3.65 million. We expect the arbitrator to side somewhat with Samsonov. As a result, we expect the final contract to be in the $3.75 and $4 million range.
Whatever the final amount is, it will only be for one year. That gives the Maple Leafs another full season to determine if Samsonov’s 2022-23 season was a fluke, or if he’s the real deal. It also means they have no commitment to him beyond the 2023-24 season. It also means, on the other hand, that he can walk to free agency after the 2023-24 season ends.
The Team Has Only 11 Players Signed Past the 2023-24 Season
If we look at the Maple Leafs’ roster on the website CapFriendly, we see that as of the writing of this, the team has just 11 players signed beyond the 2023-24 season. And they have over $46.5 million in cap space if the league salary cap rises to a predicted $87.5 million.
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Of the $40.8 million they have committed beyond next season, almost $22 million of that is the last season of Mitch Marner and John Tavares’ present deals.
The only major commitment the Maple Leafs have beyond the 2024-25 season is the remaining five years of Morgan Rielly’s present eight-year, $60 million contract. They only have three other contracts that go beyond the 2024-25 season. David Kampf is signed for $2.4 million; Calle Janrkrok is signed for $2.1 million, and Reaves’ $1.35 million that we noted earlier.
Marner, Tavares, Rielly & Matthews Will Likely Take Up Most of the Future Salary Cap
Going back to the 2024-25 season, other than the big contracts of Marner, Tavares, and Rielly, the next biggest contract the Maple Leafs have on the books is Kampf’s $2.4 million.
If we believe the majority of the reports out there, we expect Auston Matthews will be taking up a good chunk of the team’s future salary-cap space. We aren’t so sure about William Nylander.
The majority of reports have him and the Maple Leafs far apart. It does, at this point in time, appear that Nylander will be headlining the unrestricted free agent (UFA) market next July. After that, the two biggest questions will be how much of a raise Marner can expect and how much less Tavares will be willing to accept.
The 2023-24 Season Will Be a Tipping Point
The 2023-24 season will be a big season for the Maple Leafs. It will also be an important one for new general manager (GM) Brad Treliving. With all of the short-term deals and the expiration of core player’s contracts, the team will have the flexibility to take a major pivot if Treliving feels one is necessary.
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In just two short years this team could look vastly different.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs’ fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]