Mikael Granlund’s first stint with the Pittsburgh Penguins was a disaster. After posting 64 points in 80 games in 2021-22 with the Nashville Predators, Granlund took a step back last season. In 58 games with the Predators, he produced 36 points. Then, after being acquired by the Penguins at the trade deadline, he recorded only five points in 21 games. All-in-all that is 41 points in 79 games. This means, he went from 0.8 points-per-game (P/G) to 0.52, but even worse, he only scored at a 0.24 P/G pace in Pittsburgh.
It is impossible to ignore that Granlund’s short stint last season was incredibly underwhelming and caused many to speculate whether a buyout was the right move. But he does have an extensive track record to show that he is better than his point totals show. This in and of itself poses a few interesting questions. What factors led to Granlund’s decline in play? Is it too small of a sample size to make any definitive conclusions? As well, how could he improve if he is kept around? These are the types of questions Penguins coaching staff and management must ask themselves if they plan to make the most out of their current situation with Granlund. At the crux of it all is whether or not he is a Penguin come opening night and if he is, the best option for the player and team is to focus on the future.
There are many factors at play that will likely influence his performance next season. Quite a few of these factors are external, like his linemates and usage. There are of course internal factors on Granlund himself to improve upon his career in Pittsburgh so far. At this point, it seems most likely that he plays in the middle six on the second or third line. Granlund will need to make the most out of whichever line he plays on at 5v5 and special teams.
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Factors For Granlund’s Success
It is tough to gauge what the line combinations could look like with well over a month before training camp officially kicks off. However, if he plays on the second line, it’s likely that he plays with Evgeni Malkin and Reilly Smith. On the third line, it varies much more and he could find himself with players like Alex Nylander, Drew O’Connor, Andreas Johnsson, Reilly Smith, Matt Nieto, Noel Acciari, and Lars Eller. He also has utility as a winger or center, making his role even less clear at this point. What even further muddies the future is the amount of turnover in the bottom six that we’ve seen in the offseason. As well, the decline of the aging Jeff Carter seems to make the bottom six, especially the third line, even more unclear.
Last season, the most common line combinations featuring Granlund were: O’Connor-Granlund-Rickard Rakell or Danton Heinen-Ryan Poehling-Granlund. If he can cement a more common role with the team, that should allow him to establish more chemistry with his linemates. As well, if he plays with more skilled linemates, it would give him the opportunity to produce at a higher rate. Constant fluctuations with both his position and linemates likely played a factor in him being unable to get on the scoresheet more. Again, these are all factors that are out of Granlund’s control.
What is in his control is how effective he is in the minutes he is given. With the Penguins last season, he was quite effective even if it didn’t materialize in actual goals. While he was on the ice, they controlled the expected goals (xG) battle with 57.5 percent xG. Relative to his teammates, he ranked sixth in xG% amongst all forwards who played 200 minutes or more at 5v5. On the defensive side, he performed quite well, ranking second in terms of expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5v5. If these underlying numbers are any indication, he should be able to start producing more while playing solid defense. The new roster additions up front should help him produce more, especially if he finds himself in a similar role to what he had last season.
Assuming that the Penguins keep Granlund, he will need to perform better to help the Penguins get back to the postseason in 2024. Over his career, he has shown to be an effective play driver and could be a very useful player within the Penguins’ forward group down the stretch. Hopefully this season, with the changes already made, he has a little bit more luck putting the puck in the net and his 21-game stint last season will be a distant memory.
All stats and information from NaturalStatTrick and Hockey-Reference