At this stage of the NHL offseason, the Colorado Avalanche have accomplished all of their goals for the summer. They acquired a pair of centers (Ryan Johansen and Ross Colton) to fill the hole left by Nazem Kadri last offseason, signed the blossoming Bowen Byram to a bridge deal, and took fliers on players looking to rejuvenate their careers (Jonathan Drouin and Miles Wood).
All things considered, general manager Chris MacFarland addressed the concerns of a squad that disappointed in last year’s playoffs, which is all you can ask of someone operating under a stagnant salary cap. Despite a more positive outlook for next season, one crucial decision must be made ahead of the 2024 offseason and it could have ramifications for the rest of this core’s Stanley Cup hopes.
Toews (And Others) Need New Contracts
Creeping up on the horizon is the pending unrestricted free agency (UFA) of 29-year-old defenseman Devon Toews, one of the key cogs of the Avalanche’s 2022 Stanley Cup win, and one of the NHL’s most underrated rearguards.
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Currently owed $4.1 million against the cap for the 2023-24 season, Toews is coming up for renewal at a pivotal point in the Avalanche’s current competitive timeline. He will be 30 once the next deal kicks in and only one summer later (2025 offseason), both Byram and Mikko Rantanen will need new contracts.
If Byram enjoys a true breakout season, he could demand a healthy raise on his current $3.85 million cap hit on a longer-term deal, though he will still be a restricted free agent (RFA) upon expiry. Rantanen’s contract will be costly given his goalscoring prowess (he’s tied for fifth in goals scored since 2020-21), but it’s difficult to see him not re-signing when the time comes.
Research on aging curves suggests players peak much sooner than previously thought – around age 24 or 25 – rather than their late 20s which has often been thrown about in general discussion. Of course, every player is different and Toews’ workload is lower than most players his age having played in fewer than 400 regular-season and playoff games despite turning 30 during next season.
According to league sources, the NHL’s salary cap could rise to over $90 million for the 2025-26 season which would represent nearly a $10 million jump over the next three seasons (from ‘How and why the NHL salary cap could still see a larger increase this offseason’, Joe Smith – The Athletic, 6/8/23).
As a result, the Avalanche can (and should) keep Toews in the fold for as long as possible, with the new cap ceiling benchmarks giving them the breathing room to keep the current core intact. As both his boxscore and analytical statistics show, he’s an integral part of one of the NHL’s premier franchises.
Toews is One of the NHL’s Most Underrated Defensemen
Though Toews is much more well known now after starring for the Avalanche during their Cup run, his name wasn’t always in the spotlight. Long a darling of the analytics community, the late-bloomer only truly broke into the mainstream once he arrived in Colorado via trade.
Then-general manager (GM) Joe Sakic was able to acquire him from the New York Islanders for a modest package of only two draft picks, second-rounders in the 2021 and 2022 NHL Drafts due to the RFA filing for arbitration, and the Islanders hoping to hand the promising Noah Dobson an increased role on the blue line. While Dobson has since made himself indispensable on the Islanders’ blue line, there is little doubt that GM Lou Lamoriello sold low on a valuable asset.
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Since joining the Avalanche ahead of the 2020-21 season, Toews ranks 20th among all defensemen in goals (29), 14th in assists (109), 15th in points (138), and actually leads all blueliners in that time in even-strength scoring (113 points). It becomes even more apparent to what extent Toews contributes to the Avalanche’s on-ice success beyond the scoresheet when using Corey Sznajder’s microstat tracking data.
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Among the team’s defensemen in 2022-23, only Byram generated more zone entries than Toews per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. While he wasn’t tasked with carrying the puck out of the defensive zone as often as his peers, he also posted the lowest rate of failed retrievals and zone exits on the team and ranked 10th in the league. He also facilitated zone exits with possession of the puck – preferable to off the glass – at one of the highest rates among all NHL defensemen. When he has the puck, the Avalanche can breathe easy.
Additionally, Toews was one of only 27 NHL defensemen to have maintained a positive penalty differential (penalties drawn minus penalties taken) while playing at least 500 minutes in all situations last season, posting a plus-1 differential. Over the past three seasons, he’s one of only 39 blueliners to own either a positive or neutral penalty differential while playing a minimum of 1,000 minutes in all situations, with a neutral (0) differential over that time. He’s not the most fleet of foot but his defensive awareness and stickwork help give him an edge over his more athletic counterparts.
The above traits combine to come out favourably in the wash. Despite leading the Avalanche in cumulative 5-on-5 minutes last season (second in average per-game usage) he performed at an elite level according to his relative metrics, which compare the team’s results from when he’s playing versus on the bench.
Among qualified defensemen (minimum 300 minutes played at 5-on-5), Toews ranked seventh in relative expected goals (plus-6.7%) and sixth in both relative scoring chances (plus-7.1%) and high-danger chances (plus-8.2%). Not only did he outperform Cale Makar in each of those categories, but he posted similar shares of shots and chances regardless of whether or not he was playing beside his Norris Trophy-winning partner.
Toews is the defensive conscience for Makar, letting his free-wheeling teammate play to his strengths while ensuring they don’t get caught out of position when he becomes adventurous. Among defensive pairings to have logged at least 500 minutes together at 5-on-5 over the past two seasons, Toews and Makar rank seventh in shot-share, fifth in chance-share, and have outscored the opposition 99-51, posting the best goal differential over that span (plus-48). Toews is one-half of an almost unstoppable tandem, so retaining his services is of utmost importance.
Keeping Toews Should Be a Priority for the Avalanche
Age and the other upcoming contracts aside, keeping Toews in the fold for the long term should be one of Colorado’s top priorities, if not the main objective entirely.
Assuming the cap grows as expected, the Avalanche should be able to accommodate extensions for all their major stars due to having inked most of their key contributors to contracts of fair value or better. Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6 million), Makar ($9 million), Valeri Nichushkin ($6.125 million), Artturi Lehkonen ($4.5 million), and Samuel Girard ($4.5 million) are all under contract through at least the 2026-27 season and should form the nucleus of the Avalanche for years to come.
Organizations often struggle for years to assemble a core capable of challenging for the Stanley Cup, and some find that their rebuilds have hit a ceiling before they ever reach the heights of a championship. The Avalanche are in a unique position to add one or more titles with this current core in place, and trading Toews away at this juncture would be a massive mistake.
Data courtesy of AllThreeZones, Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.