Initial reactions to the Auston Matthews extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs are mixed. Many fans and insiders are thrilled with the deal, calling it a win based on the salary and the percentage of the cap it eats up. Others are worried that the shorter term is problematic. Then, there are some who don’t see this as a huge deal either way around and wish that every little nook and cranny of the deal stop being dissected and analyzed.
An argument can be made that all three points of view are accurate.
The Matthews’ Deal: A Win-Win
When looking at the positive side of things, the Maple Leafs got their superstar center locked up for the next four seasons (five if you include the 2023-24 campaign) and Matthews became the highest-paid player in the NHL. How can you not love that deal for either party?
For Matthews, he’s being paid extremely well despite not having to lock in long term and the structure of his contract alone means he’s not going to struggle to make ends meet. Chris Johnston reports, “The Auston Matthews extension will be paid almost entirely in signing bonuses with nearly $50M of the $53M contract coming that way. That includes a $15.925M bonus payment when the contract officially kicks in next July.”
Related: Auston Matthews Extension Could Cement His Legacy in Toronto
As the contract moves forward, Matthews nears his next deal with a $114 million career earnings. All the while, he’s poised for a third major payday as a free agent. With the NHL salary cap likely above $95 million in five years, a 50-plus goal scorer in his 30s is still worth a lot on the NHL open market.
Meanwhile, for Toronto, they remove any doubt that Matthews will be leaving at the end of next season and the dark cloud that could have overshadowed the season is now gone. They also eliminate the risk of being locked into a long-term deal with a player who has had some injury troubles.
The Matthews’ Deal: A Lose-Lose
For the Maple Leafs, this shorter-term contract only leads to a bigger payday down the road when the salary cap is higher and the player likely wants a bigger piece of the pie. Matthews settled for a percentage of the cap just under what Connor McDavid is taking with the Oilers and around what Nathan MacKinnon took with the Colorado Avalanche, but there’s no guarantee he will do so again. If the cap is at $100 million when he’s up for another extension, he could hold the Leafs to a higher percentage and really make that process painful.
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For the player, he’s taking a bit of a risk that his production drops, he gets seriously injured, or the Maple Leafs never win anything while he’s their star leader. If Toronto doesn’t do much better than they’ve done in the past, never getting over the playoff hurdles that have haunted them, that reputation will travel with Matthews wherever he goes. There are already whispers that Matthews isn’t worthy of holding the mantle of the league’s highest-paid player because he’s not taken his team to the promised land. Imagine what they’ll say about him if he can’t lead his team to a Stanley Cup, or even just the Final.
The Matthews’ Deal: Rather Insignificant
For fans that aren’t sure how the judge this contract, an argument can be made the deal doesn’t cripple or help the Maple Leafs in any significant way. The team isn’t handcuffed by the contract — the William Nylander situation is largely unrelated to the Matthews situation — and it’s not out of the realm of what everyone, including the Maple Leafs expected. Matthews is sticking with the team, he’s not making it impossible to do business, and he didn’t take such a high amount that the pressure of living up to the deal will eat him alive.
The reality is, he probably won’t be the highest-paid player for long. As the cap rises and stars look to his deal, then value themselves in comparison to a fair percentage of the cap, others will eventually sign for above his yearly salary. Matthews might have set a new bar or started a new trend for contract extensions, but it’s only a matter of time before someone else changes it again or follows suit and surpasses what he’s making.