Every player comes into a season with the expectation that they are at the start of a career year, but few realize that hope. Last season, many of the teams in the ultra-competitive Metropolitan Division succeeded or failed based on the ability of players like Jack Hughes, Alexis Lafreniere, and Martin Necas to have a breakout season. Below is one player from each team who is poised for a breakout in 2023-24.
Kirill Marchenko – Columbus Blue Jackets
Winger – 23 years old – 2022-23 Stats: 59 Games, 21 Goals & 4 Assists
One of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal season for the Columbus Blue Jackets was the emergence of 2018 second-round draft pick Kirill Marchenko. His 21 goals last season were good for third-best among rookies, just behind Wyatt Johnson and Matty Beniers, who both played 20 more games than Marchenko.
He excelled in the advanced stats, registering 54 percent in Corsi and Fenwick and 51 percent of expected goals while on ice. He also scored five goals above expected. Matching Marchenko with a pair of Michigan alums in Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli could make for one of the most exciting young lines in the league. It would not be a surprise to see Marchenko reach 30 goals, especially with increased power-play time and the offseason infusion of offensive defensemen like Damon Severson.
Owen Tippett – Philadelphia Flyers
Winger – 24 years old – 2022-23 Stats: 77 Games, 27 Goals & 22 Assists
The former first-round pick of the Florida Panthers, who was acquired in the trade for Claude Giroux, is the perfect player to define the Tortorella-style Philadelphia Flyers. Owen Tippett is a prototypical power forward who can both grind in the corners and contribute on the scoresheet, exactly the type of player sought after by John Tortorella.
Tippett began to fulfill the promise of his tenth overall selection in the 2017 NHL Draft this season, totaling nearly 50 points. With the departures of veterans James van Riemsdyk and Kevin Hayes and with Travis Konecny rumored to be on the trading block, the Flyers are likely to build around a core that includes Tippett. He is the only returning forward with an expected goal percentage (xG%) over 50. While the Flyers may still be in tear-down mode, Tippett will give fans a reason to have hope and watch the rebuild.
Rasmus Sandin – Washington Capitals
Defenseman – 23 years old – 2022-23 Stats: 71 Games, 7 Goals & 28 Assists
With a strong need to remake their defense corps and get younger, especially after trading away Dmitry Orlov, the Washington Capitals acquired Rasmus Sandin at the 2023 trade deadline from the Toronto Maple Leafs. Sandin looks to be the player who can slide into the gap left by Orlov’s departure and grow into the future of the Capitals’ blue line.
Sandin’s statistics were better for the Maple Leafs than for the post-deadline Capitals, which is to be expected. His xGF% of 60 in his time in Toronto may be a harbinger of what is to come once he gets acclimated to Washington. Another positive for Sandin is the hiring of new head coach Spencer Carbery, who comes from Toronto and is familiar with how to get the best out of him. Sandin should get additional opportunities on the power play and will have room to grow that was unavailable in Toronto.
Pierre-Olivier Joseph – Pittsburgh Penguins
Defenseman – 24 years old – 2022-23 Stats: 75 Games, 5 Goals & 16 Assists
In a season of disappointment for the franchise, the emergence of Pierre-Olivier Joseph was a bright spot for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Acquired in a trade with the Arizona Coyotes for Phil Kessel, he appears to be finally paying dividends for the veteran-laden team. Despite only averaging 15 minutes per game, he was able to post a respectable 21 points in only 75 games. With the offseason acquisition of Ryan Graves and Erik Karlsson, there is less pressure on Joseph to provide offensive output, but it should also allow him to continue to grow.
More encouraging for Penguins fans than the 21 points has to be Joseph’s advanced metrics. He finished the season second amongst Pittsburgh defensemen in xGF%, as well as in Corsi and Fenwick. He is currently projected to play on the third pair defensively and to get time alongside Kris Letang on PP2. With neither Letang nor Karlsson likely to play a full 82-game slate, there should be some opportunity to get power play time and increase his counting stats. For a team in desperate need of an infusion of young talent, Joseph may be in the perfect situation to break out.
Noah Dobson – New York Islanders
Defenseman – 23 years old – 2022-23 Stats: 78 Games, 13 Goals & 36 Assists
Similar to both the Capitals and the Penguins, the New York Islanders have decided to stock its roster with mostly veterans. Of the young players on the roster, defenseman Noah Dobson is poised to break out and has the potential to become a 60-70-point player. For the second straight season, he registered 13 goals. But with a full season of Bo Horvat and a healthy Mat Barzal, there is every reason to be hopeful that Dobson can increase that total in the coming season.
Dobson is projected to quarterback PP1 and take regular shifts on the second pair alongside Sebastian Aho. Last season, he led all Islander defensemen in points, nearly doubling the next closest. He also was the leader amongst defensemen in xGF%, Corsi, and Fenwick at all strengths. His strong regular season play carried over to the playoffs, where he again finished third on the team in xGF% for the series against the Carolina Hurricanes. If the Islanders are going to get back to the playoffs, they will need Dobson to play like a top pair defenseman.
Filip Chytil – New York Rangers
Forward – 24 years old – 2022-23 Stats: 72 Games, 22 Goals & 23 Assists
As he begins his sixth full season in a New York Rangers jersey, Filip Chytil is looking to duplicate and build on the success of his fifth season, where he doubled his prior season-high point total. He played most of the season at center, anchoring the underwhelming kid line between Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko. The Rangers certainly were impressed with Chytil’s growth, as shown by the four-year extension they gave him last March.
Related: Devils’ Ideal Power Play Units for 2023-24
Latest News & Highlights
Inconsistency, despite flashes of immense skill, had been the best description of Chytil’s game entering last season, but his improvement led many to think that he could achieve his potential. For a team that struggles to find goals at five-on-five, his ability to account for a 10 percent increase in actual goals over expected goals while he was on the ice at even strength has to give Rangers fans hope that Chytil could evolve into a 60-point player as a second-line center.
Dawson Mercer – New Jersey Devils
Forward – 21 years old – 2022-23 Stats: 82 Games, 27 Goals & 29 Assists
Only one player has played all 176 games for the New Jersey Devils over the last two seasons, that being Dawson Mercer. The versatile forward has spent time alongside both Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier and centered his own line. He also contributes in all three phases, excelling as a penalty killer last season, leading all forwards in xGF% on the penalty kill.
Mercer added 10 goals to his prior tally, finishing the season with 27. Should he get a full year in the top-six, there is reason to believe that he can get to 30-35 goals and cash in on the next long-term contract to be doled out by general manager Tom Fitzgerald. Last season, he played to a 58 xGF% at all strengths and just over 55 at even strength. With the departure of Tomas Tatar, Mercer is likely to get extended minutes alongside Hischier, which has been a boon for the team and should foster his breakout.
Seth Jarvis – Carolina Hurricanes
Forward – 21 years old – 2022-23 Stats: 82 Games, 14 Goals & 25 Assists
Veteran teams with high expectations often do not have room for younger players to grow into future roles. The Carolina Hurricanes are a deep, veteran team with sights on the Stanley Cup. One of the reasons why they may be able to get out of the Eastern Conference this season would be the emergence of Seth Jarvis. Over the last two seasons, Jarvis has plateaued around the 40-point mark. A team that finished fourth in the division in goals scored will need to find a way to generate more offense from their forward group, and Jarvis is the most likely candidate to show significant improvement.
Jarvis was a bright spot for the team in the playoffs, leading the squad with a robust 65 xGF% over the course of the 15-game run. He ran into tough luck with his shooting percentage dipping from 15 percent in 2021-22 to 7 percent last season, which is likely a big reason he scored 11 goals below expected. Should he find a way back into a double-digit shooting percentage, there is no reason to believe that he cannot total 25 goals this season.
The Metropolitan Division is likely the most competitive of all in the NHL. Like last season, playoff bids and seeding are likely to come down to the final game of the season. One of the above players could be the difference in whether a team is on the rink or the golf course come May.