With the 2023-24 NHL season just around the corner, the majority of offseason moves have been made and teams are getting ready for training camp and preseason with their new rosters. With the season coming up fast, staff from The Hockey Writers have made their predictions on how each team will place in their division, major award winners, and the Stanley Cup champion and runner-up.
The divisional rankings were all voted upon to rank the teams first through eighth, and their total score added up to place them. First-place votes are worth eight points, second-place votes are worth seven points, third-place is worth six, and so on. The rest of the votes are just based on percentage and the top three players to get the most will be listed as the winner and runners-up.
Atlantic Division Predictions
*points are not an indication of regular season statistics, only based on voting points for this division*
1st: Toronto Maple Leafs – 277 Points
2nd: Tampa Bay Lightning – 245 Points
3rd: Florida Panthers – 185 Points
4th: Boston Bruins – 181 Points
5th: Buffalo Sabres – 177 Points
6th: Ottawa Senators – 123 Points
7th: Detroit Red Wings – 89 Points
8th: Montreal Canadiens – 46 Points
Predicting the Toronto Maple Leafs to win the Atlantic Division is a pretty easy choice. They still have their four core pieces and added some quality pieces alongside them in Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi, while also adding more offense and depth options on defense. The Tampa Bay Lightning being a close second is also relatively predictable, but they are getting older, the salary cap is still eating away at them and changes are coming with every passing season.
The next three teams are all very close in voting, with the Ottawa Senators nipping at their heels. Having such a close race for third in the division will make for a very competitive season with quality teams missing the playoffs. The Detroit Red Wings have made plenty of offseason additions, but are not garnering much confidence from the voters quite yet. The Montreal Canadiens unsurprisingly finish eighth but have a lot of young pieces that will help this team take the next step over the next few seasons.
Metropolitan Division Predictions
1st: Carolina Hurricanes – 280 Points
2nd: New Jersey Devils – 269 Points
3rd: New York Rangers – 214 Points
4th: Pittsburgh Penguins – 189 Points
5th: New York Islanders – 130 Points
6th: Washington Capitals – 114 Points
7th: Columbus Blue Jackets – 86 Points
8th: Philadelphia Flyers – 50 Points
The Carolina Hurricanes come out on top of the Metropolitan Division yet again, but the young, star-studded New Jersey Devils are closing in on taking the reins from them. Both teams are very well-rounded, and it could all come down to health and goaltending for the top spot. It is hard to count out the New York Rangers though, as they have a very strong team and one of the NHL’s best goaltenders in Igor Shesterkin.
The race for a wild card position between the Atlantic and Metropolitan Divisions will be tight, and the Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Islanders and Washington Capitals are all in the mix for that as well. The Penguins made the biggest offseason splash in landing Erik Karlsson, which gives them the extra bump, but the Islanders have Ilya Sorokin and can’t be discredited either.
The Columbus Blue Jackets and Philadelphia Flyers are almost certain to be the bottom two teams in the division but are trending in opposite directions. The Blue Jackets have a chance to surprise some people, but they aren’t quite ready to jump up into the playoff race. The Flyers are still in the middle of their rebuild and with Danny Briere taking over as general manager, his fingerprints have already started covering the rebuild and he isn’t afraid to make moves.
Central Division Predictions
1st: Colorado Avalanche – 275 Points
2nd: Dallas Stars – 272 Points
3rd: Minnesota Wild – 223 Points
4th: Nashville Predators – 147 Points
5th: Winnipeg Jets – 144 Points
6th: St. Louis Blues – 133 Points
7th: Arizona Coyotes – 81 Points
8th: Chicago Blackhawks – 57 Points
The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars are predicted to be neck-and-neck for first in the Central Division. The Stars have done an excellent job of adding young stars to their team before the veterans get too old and the team falls behind, while the Avalanche are continuing to add players to complement their superstars in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. Health will be an important factor here as well. The Stars have more players that can jump up the lineup if a top-end player goes down, but we saw the Avalanche struggle with plenty of injuries last season.
The middle of the division is tight, but not strong. The Minnesota Wild come out with a big gap ahead of the rest, but still behind the top two teams. The Nashville Predators, Winnipeg Jets and St. Louis Blues are all teams with quality pieces and prospects, but are not in a full-fledged rebuild or contention window. Any one of those teams could surprise and make a jump up the standings.
Speaking of surprise, I am shocked the Arizona Coyotes are as far back as they are from the rest of the pack. They have a good forward group, solid defense, and goaltending, and depending on just how good of a season Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther have, they may be able to leapfrog one or two teams in the division.
Pacific Division Predictions
1st: Edmonton Oilers – 274 Points
2nd: Vegas Golden Knights – 263 Points
3rd: Seattle Kraken – 205 Points
4th: LA Kings – 196 Points
5th: Calgary Flames – 148 Points
6th: Vancouver Canucks – 132 Points
7th: Anaheim Ducks – 64 Points
8th: San Jose Sharks – 50 Points
There are so many questions in the Pacific Division, whether it be how the Calgary Flames handle their players wanting to leave, how the Vancouver Canucks’ season goes, and if they can stay consistent for more than a month or two at a time, and who comes out on top. The Edmonton Oilers are the easy bet as they have two of the best players in the league, but the Vegas Golden Knights have some great stars and strong depth that will rival them for the top spot.
The Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks are both rebuilding and won’t have high hopes for a playoff spot this season. The Ducks did add some players to help the team out and play with the young stars as they develop, while the Sharks are still selling off assets. The Seattle Kraken have some really strong pieces and with Shane Wright and Matty Beniers joining the club, they have some great youthful talent to work around too.
Presidents’ Trophy
1st: Carolina Hurricanes – 37.8%
2nd: Toronto Maple Leafs – 21.6%
3rd: Edmonton Oilers – 16.2%
The Presidents’ Trophy is a hard one to predict as one or two injuries can make a huge impact on a season, but predicting the 2023-24 Hurricanes to win it is a sensible choice. They have the best defensive group in the NHL, strong goaltending, great forward depth and star players like Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov leading the way up front.
The Maple Leafs and Oilers are certainly in contention for this as well as they have so much star power they are hard to count out. There are still some questions to be had about both in regards to depth and goaltending, but they do have the potential to put together fantastic seasons and challenge for the Presidents’ Trophy.
Stanley Cup Champion and Runner-Up
Carolina Hurricanes & Edmonton Oilers – 24.3%
There were two different polls done in terms of the Stanley Cup. In terms of who the Stanley Cup champion would be for the 2023-24 season, the Hurricanes and Oilers were tied, which in turn gives the answer of who the runner-up will be. The Hurricanes’ depth has the capability of taking them far into the postseason while the Oilers’ top players cannot be stopped anytime after May.
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What was interesting was that third place in both votes for the champion as well as the runner-up was the Stars. With great forwards in Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen on the back end, and Jake Oettinger in net, they have all of the key pieces and good depth to be a challenger for the Stanley Cup.
Hart Memorial Trophy
1st: Connor McDavid – 64.9%
2nd: Auston Matthews – 8.1%
3rd: Jack Hughes – 8.1%
It is no surprise to see Connor McDavid leading the way by a significant margin here. He has won this award in two of the past three seasons and has continued to take steps forward each season. Auston Matthews coming in second place isn’t much of a surprise either as he is the one that broke the potential streak of Hart Trophies McDavid could have had with his 60-goal campaign two seasons ago.
Jack Hughes is the only one here that is even slightly surprising, but after his 99-point season in a magical season for the Devils, he is worthy of being in this conversation. As mentioned in the divisional predictions, the Devils are on their way up and Hughes is their superstar. He is going to lead this team for many years to come.
Art Ross Trophy
1st: Connor McDavid – 96.4%
2nd: Leon Draisaitl – 2.1%
3rd: Auston Matthews – 1.5%
The trophy for the most points in the league could almost be given out on the first night of the season. Like the Hart Trophy, McDavid is far and away the favorite for this, and it isn’t relatively close for this one. He posted 153 points last season, which is the highest point total in almost 30 years. Since entering the league he has only missed winning this trophy three times. That is ludicrous.
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Leon Draisaitl is another fair bet for the Art Ross as he not only gets the chance to play with McDavid every night, but he is also in the same category of players that could contend for this on his own. Matthews joining this list is unsurprising too as he not only has great goal-scoring abilities, but linemate Mitch Marner has also picked up in scoring, and Bertuzzi is expected to play on his other wing and can put up 60-plus points.
James Norris Memorial Trophy
1st: Cale Makar – 59.5%
2nd: Rasmus Dahlin – 10.8%
3rd: Roman Josi – 8.1%
Makar is widely regarded as the best defenseman in the NHL, so it is no surprise that he comes out on top for the Norris Trophy. He has historical offensive stats which is one of the biggest things voters look at when submitting their ballots, but he also has exceptional defensive skills. He is a perfect, well-rounded defenseman that at this point, not many can contend with.
Rasmus Dahlin took a huge jump in offense last season with 73 points in 78 games, and like Makar, he does a lot more than just produce points. He is the number one defenseman on the Sabres and as they take a leap, he is going to get better and better. At just 23 years old he is looking like he will be one of the NHL’s premium defenders. Roman Josi is another very talented two-way defenseman but chips in offensively. The Predators are likely going to take a step back this season but if Josi can have another excellent campaign, the lack of team success could lead to bonus points.
Frank J. Selke Trophy
1st: Nico Hischier – 29.7%
2nd: Aleksander Barkov – 21.6%
3rd: Mitch Marner – 18.9%
Now that Patrice Bergeron has retired there are a lot more people that could challenge for the Selke Trophy. Awarded to the best defensive forward, Nico Hischier is going to be the front-runner to start taking this trophy home more often. He is just 24 years old, can produce at a point-per-game rate, and with the Devils getting better as mentioned with Hughes, Hischier is going to be relied upon more and more for his stellar defensive play. He is the go-to guy for any shutdown situation and as teams emerge as contenders, the spotlight on players like this will become brighter.
Aleksander Barkov and Marner have both been in this conversation plenty of times. Barkov is older and has more experience, but his injury history and the fact that he typically plays less than 70 games a season could factor into how voters look at this. With Marner, it is an interesting case. The last winger to win this award was Jere Lehtinen and that was over 20 years ago. Marner has all of the two-way talent to win this award, but the position and lack of faceoffs taken will be working against him.
Vezina Trophy
1st: Igor Shesterkin – 24.3%
2nd: Ilya Sorokin – 21.6%
3rd: Jake Oettinger & Juuse Saros – 18.9%
Shesterkin was ultimately voted as the top goaltender and is expected to take home the Vezina Trophy, but this is one of the closest votes we did. He was a contender for the Hart Trophy just two years ago, and while he didn’t have the same caliber of season in 2022-23, he was still fantastic. He, along with the Rangers, are very talented, and with team success on his side, he could make for another superstar season.
Sorokin is another popular option for the Vezina, but he may not have the same kind of team success with the Islanders this season that Shesterkin will. That being said, he is still capable of putting up similar or better numbers on a worse team. Having such a great goaltender along with a strong defensive system go very well together and could result in Sorokin winning the Vezina. The same can be said for Oettinger, who is the youngest goalie here. He has emerged as the best young goalie in the league, and with the Stars looking to have an enormous season, Oettinger will get a chance to show the league just how good he really is.
Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy
1st: Connor McDavid – 34.4%
2nd: Leon Draisaitl – 21.6%
3rd: David Pastrnak – 18.9%
McDavid is taking home his second consecutive Rocket Richard Trophy according to the polls. After the conversation about Matthews being close to taking the throne as the best player, McDavid came out last season and showed everybody how he was far and away the best player in the league and scored 64 goals. It is hard to predict anybody scoring 60 goals in the NHL, but the era is changing and scoring is going up. It is a safe bet that McDavid will come close to, or exceed 60 goals again and is a likely candidate for the Rocket.
Matthews not being on this list is crazy. He came in fourth place with just one less vote than David Pastrnak received. Draisaitl is a great goalscorer and can certainly be in the conversation for 55-plus goals as well. Pastrnak, who also passed the 60-goal plateau last season, will have an even bigger responsibility on the Boston Bruins this season and will be looked at as the primary source of offense.
Calder Memorial Trophy
1st: Connor Bedard – 62.2%
2nd: Luke Hughes – 16.2%
3rd: Adam Fantilli – 8.1%
Connor Bedard is projected to be a very special rookie. Depending on where you look, he is projected to score between 60 and 90 points in his rookie season, and if he does that, there is no question about him deserving the Calder Trophy. Putting up McDavid-like numbers in junior and a historic World Junior Championship tournament, the sky is the limit for Bedard and it should come as no surprise that he finished with the most votes.
Luke Hughes is the oldest player here but he will still only be 20 heading into the season. He is a very talented defenseman and has excellent two-way capabilities and could have a rookie season that builds on one similar to what Owen Power had in 2022-23. Adam Fantilli could be the dark horse here as there is a chance he plays the majority of the season as the first-line center of the Blue Jackets with players like Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine alongside him.
Jack Adams Award
1st: Rod Brind’Amour – 37.8%
2nd: Don Granato – 16.2%
3rd: Lindy Ruff – 10.8%
The Hurricanes were voted to win the Metropolitan Division, Presidents’ Trophy, and Stanley Cup, so it should be no surprise to see their head coach on top here. Don Granato and the Buffalo Sabres could be the team to make the biggest jump in the standings as they are young, talented, and ready to compete. Lindy Ruff has had the biggest turnaround over the past year as he has gone from hearing the “Fire Lindy!” chants to now being a top-three favorite for the Jack Adams.
The Hockey Writers has plenty of team-based season predictions, previews, and other content to take in as the 2023-24 season quickly approaches. Make sure to check those out and let us know your predictions for each of the categories. Most of all, enjoy the season!