“Facts are meaningless. You can use facts to prove anything that is even remotely true. Facts schmacts.” – Homer Simpson
In 1997, the above Homer Simpson quote was intended as satire. In 2023, it rings eerily true. The line between fact and fiction is easily blurred, making it hard to decipher what is true and what is false.
Truths can be wrong. For instance: sugar doesn’t make kids hyper; dogs sweat through their paws and not their tongue; and there are far more than five senses – just to start.
Blurred realities exist in sports as well. Here are four commonly held beliefs about the Winnipeg Jets. Are they fact or fiction?
Kyle Connor Is a Sniper
It is important here to define “sniper.” I would categorize a sniper as a player with a high-powered, accurate shot who is extremely efficient at finishing plays.
The average shooting percentage in the NHL last season was 10.1%. That means the average NHLer scored once on every ten shots on goal. On the high end, Andrei Kuzmenko of the Vancouver Canucks led the league with a blistering 27.3% shooting percentage (minimum 1000 minutes played).
Mark Scheifele paced the Jets at 20.1%, good for fifth in the league, while Kyle Connor had an “off” shooting year and capitalized at a rate of 11.4% (149th). Over the past three seasons, Connor’s shooting percentage is 13.8 which ranks 95th overall. Again, for context, Connor McDavid, Mark Stone and Steven Stamkos all hover above the 16% mark, and in the top 30. Scheifele ranks seventh at a robust 18.7%
Let me be clear, Connor is an excellent scorer and offensive weapon. That said, over the above three-year window, he has taken the eighth most shots in the league; Connor benefits from being a high-volume shooter, with an above-average shooting percentage.
On the Jets, Scheifele is actually the sniper. He takes fewer shots but capitalizes at a higher rate. There are many ways to produce in the NHL, but statistically, Scheifele is the more efficient shooter.
So, Connor being a sniper is fiction. Not, ostriches bury their head in the sand level of fiction, more like fiction adjacent.
Adam Lowry Is Still One of the Best Defensive Bottom 6 Forwards In the League
Here’s Adam Lowry’s regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM – a method for evaluating skater performance that seeks to improve on the known issues with on-ice metrics) profile from the 2017-18 season compared to 2022-23:
While it is somewhat unfair to compare players from their peak to their current state, time is undefeated. We can see that Lowry’s defensive prowess has waned over the years.
However, how does Lowry fare league-wide? An inconclusive list of comparable players includes Charlie Coyle, Nick Paul, Casey Cizikas, Mikael Backlund, Lars Eller and Yanni Gourde. Only Backlund and Gourde rank better statistically, but they are the gold standard.
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Taking into account penalty kill effectiveness and matchups, Lowry is still one of the better “shut-down” forwards in the league. On April 3, 2023, Harman Dayal of The Athletic wrote a piece, “Who are the NHL’s best shutdown centers and why are they so valuable?” which included ALL forwards (Patrice Bergeron was the winner) and Lowry ranked in the top 10.
While Lowry has regressed from his stellar 2017-18 campaign, it is a fact that he remains in the upper echelon of defensive forwards in the NHL.
The Winnipeg Jets Have Been a Disappointment Over the Past Six Years
“Disappointment” is subjective, depending on the benchmark. Technically, 31 teams have disappointing seasons every year.
Over the past six seasons, the Jets have a 251-166-38 record, good for 13th in that time span. They made the playoffs in five of those six seasons, with the pinnacle being a Conference Final appearance in 2018. Even without their stellar 2017-18 campaign, the Jets have an above-average record relative to the league.
Aspiring for great and settling for good is participation trophy nonsense. The Jets should never be content with being above-average, but that is what they have been – nineteen other teams would ostensibly change places with them if given a chance.
The last two seasons have been disappointing and obfuscate their relative success. Criticism is a healthy part of fandom, but it is important to remember that only 15 teams have won the Stanley Cup in the last 30 years.
Missing the forest for the trees is easy to do when analyzing the Jets, especially following seasonal unceremonious exits. That is not to lose sight of the ultimate goal – winning the Stanley Cup. Rather, it is to highlight the fact that the NHL is an extremely competitive league, and success should measured on a gradient, and not in black-and-white.
Nikolaj Ehlers is Kevin Bacon’s Son
This is just for fun and pure fiction, but the two bear a striking resemblance:
Both are underappreciated and have fancy footwork, so perhaps Bacon has some Danish lineage. What is a fact, however, is that Axel Jonsson-Fjallby and Ethan Hawke are brothers:
Nonsense aside, the fact remains that the Jets are embarking on their most uncertain season in 2.0 history. If they are to improve on last season, Conner will need to regain his shooting touch, Lowry will need to continue to be a defensive stalwart, and the team’s work ethic can’t be fiction. As fans, we can continue to analyze fact from fiction and not jump to conclusions like lemmings from cliffs (which is also untrue).
