Training camp is just a few weeks away. It has been another offseason of change for the Anaheim Ducks following the team’s last-place finish in 2022-23. General manager Pat Verbeek still has some work to do before opening night, and there are some lingering questions that need to be answered as the team enters the next phase of its rebuild:
1. What Will Contracts for Restricted Free Agents Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale Look Like & When Will They Be Signed?
The Ducks avoided salary arbitration with Troy Terry, signing him to a seven-year, $49 million contract in early August. The deal was announced just before the hearing was scheduled to take place with an independent arbitrator, so maybe having a deadline, like the start of camp, will push the two sides to complete contracts for Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale. New head coach Greg Cronin will be implementing his systems, philosophies, and strategies when camp opens. It would not be a strong start to his regime if he is missing two core players who are expected to play integral roles.
If the Ducks view Zegras as a franchise center – like Jack Hughes of the New Jersey Devils – it would make sense to lock him up to an eight-year contract in the $8.5 million per season range. Eric Stephens of The Athletic has noted that Verbeek hasn’t given the max term to any player yet, so it will be interesting to see what the team expects to get from Zegras (from ‘Troy Terry’s new contract — and what it tells us about Pat Verbeek and Trevor Zegras,’ The Athletic, August 2, 2023). The 22-year-old forward led Anaheim in scoring last season with 23 goals and 65 points in 81 games.
A short-term, prove-it contract for Drysdale makes a great deal of sense. He still needs to establish himself as a defender who can play in more than just power-play situations. Evolving Hockey’s projection of a two-year deal with an average annual value of around $1.85 million could work for both parties (from ‘Examining contract options for NHL’s top restricted free agents from Zegras to Lafrenière,’ The Athletic, August 18, 2023). Drysdale has the skill and the hockey IQ to be a major difference-maker, so he could significantly increase his earnings in the future.
2. Who Will Be the Next Player to Be Dealt in Anaheim’s Roster Shuffle?
The Ducks have been active sellers on the trade front over the past few years, and that is unlikely to change in 2023-24. Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg are likely to be moved ahead of the March trade deadline, as they are both playing on expiring contracts with unrestricted free agency on the horizon. If he continues to produce and avoids the injury bug, Henrique could be a very attractive acquisition for a contending team.
Longtime players John Gibson and Cam Fowler have probably grown accustomed to hearing their names in trade speculation. Is this finally the year the Ducks move one of them? Gibson’s representatives have denied reports that he has refused to play for the team, but it seems that he would welcome the opportunity for a change of scenery. Unfortunately, the trading process has been more difficult than Anaheim thought it would be, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. Fowler may become expendable if Anaheim’s talented prospect pool of defenders progresses quickly. However, that move might come further down the line.
3. How Much Will the Ducks Improve Defensively?
Anaheim had a nightmare season in their own end in 2022-23, finishing with the most goals against per game (4.09), the most shots against per game (39.1), the most high-danger 5-on-5 scoring chances against, the most 5-on-5 scoring chances against, and the highest 5-on-5 expected goals against.
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They brought in blueliners Radko Gudas, Robert Hagg, and Ilya Lyubushkin during the offseason. Each of them will add some physicality to the defense group, and they should help a penalty-kill percentage (72.1%) that ranked 31st in the league last campaign. Can Gudas handle the responsibilities that come with an increased role? As a depth defender, he performed well for the Florida Panthers, but he may be placed in situations that are slightly out of his comfort zone as a projected top-four rearguard on the Ducks.
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Anaheim desperately needs to cut down on shots against and alleviate some of the pressure that their goaltenders face on a nightly basis. A nastier presence on the back end could be beneficial toward that end. However, the ability to move the puck more efficiently out of the defensive zone is likely to be much more valuable. A healthy Drysdale, who only played in eight games in 2022-23 before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury, will help in that regard.
4. How Much Will the Ducks Improve Offensively?
Anaheim ranked 31st in the NHL last season in goals per game (2.51), 5-on-5 goals for (143), and power-play percentage (15.7%). The team paid a premium for free-agent winger Alex Killorn, who registered career highs in goals (27), assists (37), and points (64) as a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2022-23. He comes with a cap hit of $6.25 million over the next four seasons. Killorn will either play alongside Zegras or Mason McTavish, who provided the Ducks with some much-needed scoring beyond Zegras and Terry during his rookie campaign.
McTavish, Killorn, and a healthier Henrique, who appeared in just 62 games last season, will be counted on heavily to supplement Zegras and Terry’s offense. The Ducks will also need much more from Ryan Strome and Frank Vatrano following their inconsistent results last season. Still, Anaheim will largely be relying on goals to come by committee, which hasn’t exactly worked for them in recent years and puts the onus on Cronin to come up with schemes to generate more chances.
5. What Impact Will Anaheim’s Prospect Pool Have in 2023-24?
Adding some talented prospects into the mix could go a long way to addressing the team’s defensive and offensive shortcomings. Leo Carlsson, who was chosen with the No. 2 pick in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, checks both boxes as a strong two-way forward. His 6-foot-3, 198-pound frame and his incredible hockey sense made sure he didn’t look out of place playing against men in Sweden. If he quickly adapts to the North American game, Carlsson could be a valuable addition to the Ducks’ roster immediately. Additionally, Isac Lundestrom’s Achilles injury increased Carlsson’s odds of landing an NHL spot out of training camp.
Nathan Gaucher, who was selected with the No. 22 pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, is another potential replacement for Lundestrom. He can win faceoffs, plays well defensively, and brings plenty of value to the table away from the puck. If Carlsson continues to play overseas, Gaucher could end up splitting time between the NHL and the American Hockey League (AHL).
The bulk of Anaheim’s strong prospect group is on defense, which includes a plethora of mobile offensive-minded options. Olen Zellweger, Pavel Mintyukov, Jackson LaCombe, Tyson Hinds, and Drew Helleson will compete for NHL spots during training camp. However, it wouldn’t be a surprise if all of them began the 2023-24 campaign in the AHL with the San Diego Gulls.
The Anaheim brass will have plenty of decisions to make, but management intends to be patient with their prospects. Despite that preference, several of them will probably end up spending time with the big club at some point in 2023-24 due to the possibility of trades or injuries. It would also be good for the development of Zellweger, Mintyukov, and Hinds to get their feet wet at the NHL level before next summer.
Team Analytics courtesy of Hockey-Reference.
