We’re only about a full month into the NHL season, but it’s already panic time for some teams off to poor starts. While no one can win a season in October, they can certainly lose it. And for some teams, their poor starts mean it’s getting late early. Let’s look at five teams with legitimate red flags approaching the one-month mark of the 2023-24 season.
Edmonton Oilers
It was only about a week and a half ago that I wrote there wasn’t reason to panic for the Oilers. Well, it’s time to change course because there is definitely reason to be concerned for the Oilers and their fans.
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It’s not that the Oilers are necessarily playing poorly; their expected goals percentage (xG%) of 57.31 percent at five-on-five ranks third in the NHL. Sure, there have been some defensive breakdowns, and it’s not like that’s a complete surprise. Their blue line wasn’t their strength heading into the season.
But make no mistake, the Oilers’ 2-8-1 start is almost squarely on their goaltending. Stuart Skinner has an .856 save percentage (SV%) in six starts, while Jack Campbell is at .873 percent. Even if the Oilers’ defense isn’t great, there’s no way it’s as bad as the team’s goaltending has been. Their .861 team SV% is on their goaltending, and nobody should think otherwise.
The problem for the Oilers is that finding a solution will prove easier said than done. They’re tight on cap space, and acquiring a goalie in-season, especially this early, is difficult. They did place Campbell on waivers on Nov. 7, so that may give them some cap flexibility since they’ll have $1.15 million prorated against the cap (Per CapFriendly).
But for now, it appears they’re going to give Calvin Pickard a chance. He’s played well in the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors, totaling a .939 SV%. Perhaps he’s a short-term fix and can help the Oilers stabilize their situation while general manager Ken Holland tries to find a more permanent solution.
One would have to think Skinner will bounce back at some point, but the Oilers can’t afford to wait. At 2-8-1, it’ll only take a couple more losses before their playoff hopes are in serious jeopardy. They’d have to play at a 104-point pace from here on out to hit the projected 95-point cutoff to qualify for the postseason. It’s truly getting late early in Edmonton.
St. Louis Blues
The Blues may be 5-5-1, but there should be some concern with their start to the season. They’re getting great goaltending from Jordan Binnington, who has a .919 SV% through seven games. And his backup, Joel Hofer, has fared well, too, posting a .912 SV%.
But what’s concerning about the Blues’ start to the season is how they’ve played at five-on-five. Their xG% of 42 percent ranks 30th in the NHL, with only the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks having a worse number. The Sharks look to be historically terrible, and the Blackhawks are rebuilding. No one expects either team to be in the playoffs.
Defensively, the Blues are giving up 2.88 expected goals per 60 minutes, ranked 24th in the NHL. But it’s also their offense that’s a concern, as they’re generating only 2.08 expected goals per 60. That’s the worst rate in the NHL, even over the Sharks.
Teams outperform their expected goal rates from time to time. There are always outliers, but given Binnington’s last few seasons, there will probably be a correction in the Blues’ results at some point. Their process is concerning, and their results don’t seem sustainable if they keep playing as they are at five-on-five.
Ottawa Senators
If it feels like this happens to the Senators every year, that’s because it has over the last three to five seasons. The hype train begins in the preseason. Pundits and fans predict playoffs, but a bad start has everyone reversing course just a month into the season.
It seems like we’re going through this with the Senators once again. They’re 4-6-0 for eight points, putting them in last place in the Atlantic Division. Of course, there’s time for them to turn it around, but their process at five-on-five has been ugly.
The Senators rank 28th in the NHL in xG% at 44.23 percent, and their defense is a significant reason for their struggles. They’re giving up 3.24 expected goals per 60 minutes, the 31st rate in the NHL; only the Sharks’ five-on-five defense has been worse.
At some point, something has to give in Ottawa. Coach D.J. Smith is well-liked by his players, but there’s pressure on the Senators to compete for a playoff spot and play meaningful games in March. If things keep trending in the direction they are, they won’t be in that position. Interim GM Steve Staios may have to consider a coaching change if that’s the case.
Getting Artem Zub and Thomas Chabot back from injuries should help the Senators’ defense, but Staios may not be able to wait that long. The Senators are continuously underwater in shot and expected goals share, and that suggests more losses could be in store. I’m not going to guess who could replace Smith if that’s a route Staios decided to go. But there is concern with the Senators’ start, and it’ll be something to monitor over the coming weeks if Smith can’t get his team to right the ship.
Calgary Flames
The Oilers’ Alberta rival, things have not gone much better for the Flames, who are 4-7-1 and sit just above the Oilers in the Pacific Division standings with nine points. However, their five-on-five numbers are also solid and suggest they should be getting some better results.
The Flames have a 52.38 xG% through 12 games, placing them 11th in the league, and they have solid offensive and defensive rates at five-on-five. It’s a similar look to the Oilers, and they have one thing in common with their counterparts from Edmonton: shaky goaltending.
Jacob Markstrom has been better this season, specifically when it comes to stopping high-danger shots. His high-danger SV% of .862 percent is excellent, but he still has an overall SV% of .896. There’s probably room for improvement in his game, but the bigger question the Flames have to figure out is who backs him up.
Dan Vladar has struggled this season, posting an .844 SV% across three appearances. Granted, that’s a small sample size. But if they aren’t confident playing him, they might have to consider finding space for Dustin Wolf. He’s dominated in the AHL and doesn’t have much left to prove at that level.
Could the Flames turn it around? Perhaps, but it might be time for a retool in Calgary if they don’t. Elliotte Friedman reported on the most recent 32 Thoughts episode that GM Craig Conroy has already begun gauging the market for Nikita Zadorov, Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev, who will all be UFAs in 2024. That’ll be something to watch if the Flames don’t right the ship.
Minnesota Wild
The Wild are not in dire straits like the Oilers or the Flames, but they have not had the best start to the 2023-24 season. They’ve struggled at five-on-five, and their penalty kill has been one of the worst in the NHL through the first four weeks.
Let’s start with their five-on-five play, which has improved some but still lags behind where they need to be. They’ve only controlled 47.32 percent of the expected goals at five-on-five, and they’ve struggled to generate consistent offense and prevent quality chances defensively.
The five-on-five play is concerning, but what seems to be a bigger issue is the penalty kill. The Wild are killing off just 66.7 percent of the power plays they’re facing, and it’s not bad luck, either. Their penalty kill has been legitimately terrible.
The Wild are giving up an average of 9.79 expected goals per 60 minutes when down a man, the sixth-worst rate in the NHL. That’s a slight improvement from where they were heading into their game against the New York Islanders on Nov. 7, but it’s still not where it needs to be.
That penalty kill has affected Marc-Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson, who have save percentages below .900. There’s reason to believe the Wild can improve their five-on-five play. There’s talent on their roster, but the penalty kill could submarine their season. Luckily, they’re in the worst division in the league in the Central, but there are red flags in the Wild’s play they need to figure out.
Concerns Heading Toward American Thanksgiving
Teams like the Flames and Oilers are in worse shape than others, but there are concerns with each of the clubs mentioned here. American Thanksgiving is a key benchmark in the NHL season, so if some of these problems are prevalent in a couple of weeks, it could be a sign of things to come for the rest of 2023-24.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick