The Tampa Bay Lightning head into December with a 10-9-5 record, and their recent four-game stretch has been quite indicative of the inconsistency that has plagued the team in 2023-24. After a resounding 8-2 victory over the Carolina Hurricanes (Nov. 24), the team headed west and suffered a power outage, only being able to score one goal in each of their two losses against the Colorado Avalanche (Nov. 27) and Arizona Coyotes (Nov. 28) and then were unable to hold a league at home in their loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins (Nov. 30).
The current team statistics reveal some issues that have led to the Lightning’s inconsistency. The first thing that stands out is that they have struggled mightily in 5-on-5 situations. Through their first 24 games, only the Anaheim Ducks have a worse puck possession percentage than the Lightning. This has resulted in the team being in the middle of the pack when it comes to their shots-on-goal average, which is slightly inflated due to being so proficient on the power play. Their 32.5% success rate on the man advantage is currently second-best in the league.
The Lightning’s defensive stats should get a boost with the return of Andrei Vasilevskiy, but the team still needs to play better in front of him than they did for Jonas Johansson and Matt Tomkins. The Lightning have given up an average of 30 shots on goal this season, which is 21st in the league. With those 30 shots a game, only the Nashville Predators have given up more high-danger scoring chances than the Lightning.
Stock Up: Nikita Kucherov
Not much of a surprise here, especially after being named the second star of the NHL for the week ending on Nov. 26, which was followed up by being named the NHL’s first star for November. Kucherov produced six multi-point efforts, highlighted by five points (Nov. 4 at the Ottawa Senators) and four points (Nov. 6 at the Toronto Maple Leafs) in consecutive games. He then matched a franchise record with six points (Nov. 24 at the Carolina Hurricanes), marking the first six-point performance by any NHL player since Dec. 7, 2022 (Tage Thompson: five goals and one assist with the Buffalo Sabres). Kucherov’s 28 points were the fourth-most in a calendar month in Lightning history. Whatever the issues are with the team, it is not with Kucherov.
Stock Down: Team Execution
After the two losses to the Avalanche and Coyotes, head coach Jon Cooper assured everyone that the team’s lack of offense did not have anything to do with their effort. “It’s just been tough for us. It’s not like the guys aren’t trying. At some point we’ve got to start willing some of these pucks in the net.” While that seems like a worthwhile explanation, a look at the stats from the Coyotes games reveals a trend that has been common in Lightning losses this season. While the team did manage 32 shots on goal, there was not a significant amount of high-danger chances from those attempts.
The loss against the Penguins also saw the team revert back to another issue that has hampered their efforts this season, taking care of the puck. In what Cooper described after the game as “crazy, poor decisions”, the Lightning squandered a dominant two-goal lead in the first period only to see turnovers give the Penguins plenty of opportunities to get back into the game and eventually win. These two issues are the common thread in just about every loss for the Lightning this season.
Stock Down: Lightning Defense
When you look at the individual stats for turnovers, three of the top four Lightning players who lead that category are defensemen. It should be noted that Kucherov does lead the team in turnovers by a wide margin. However, his turnovers usually come in the offensive end and on the power play when he is trying to make a high-danger pass to set up a goal.
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While those numbers need to come down, it is the defensive players’ turnovers, especially on the breakout, that have caused a great deal of issues with the Lightning losing the puck possession battle in games they lose. Mikhail Sergachev, Victor Hedman, and Erik Cernak are the three Lightning that lead the defense in this category.
Stock Up: Brayden Point
After a slow start to the season, Point has really picked up the pace in scoring points for the Lightning, culminating in a hat trick in the win against the Hurricanes. He is now second on the team in points with 30, with Kucherov claiming the team lead with 39. He has registered five goals and two assists across his last five games.
In fact, Point and Kucherov have been quite the dynamic duo, as they made some history during the offensive explosion becoming the second pair of Lightning teammates to register five or more points in the same game when they accomplished this against the Hurricanes. They joined Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis, who did so on Dec. 7, 2006, against the Atlanta Thrashers.
Stock Up: Matt Tomkins
We need to give a little shoutout to the 29-year-old goaltender, who handled his demotion to the Syracuse Crunch in style. On Nov. 28, Tomkins stopped 21 of 24 shots, including all three Laval Rocket attempts in the shootout, to lead the Crunch to a 4-3 victory. He followed that performance up with another win on Friday (Dec. 1) against the Toronto Marlies. He is picking up valuable ice time in Syracuse in case he is needed on the Lightning roster in the future.
Related: Lightning’s Nikita Kucherov Is an Early Hart Contender
Before a rematch with the Penguins on Dec. 6, the Lightning have back-to-back games against the Dallas Stars (Dec. 2 and 4). With the Lightning sitting in fifth place in the Atlantic Division, they need to address these issues sooner rather than later so they do not fall further behind in the playoff race.