The Philadelphia Flyers are off to a solid start just over a quarter through the 2023-24 season, but their status as a rebuilder might make some hesitant to call their early success legitimate. Through their first 10 games from the 2020-21 season through the 2022-23 season, they had a combined record of 18-7-5, but an overall record of 63-100-27 in their last 72 games across those seasons.
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Contrary to what might have been the case in recent Flyers’ history, their wins appear to be sustainable. With no true fall-off in sight, perhaps they could be in the playoff race for longer than some might have expected in a rebuilding season. Why have the Flyers be winning games this season, and how much stock should they put into it moving forward?
Flyers’ System Allows Them to Compete
The biggest part of the Flyers’ success is the system they have in place. That goes beyond what head coach John Tortorella is doing as assistant coach Brad Shaw is doing a wonderful job with the defense. All around, the team has been coached tremendously in terms of the schematics they employ. Having some career resurgences throughout the lineup, the system the Flyers have in place have allowed almost everyone to flourish.
The most important thing for the Flyers has been not just the pace at which they play, but their play in their own zone and on the penalty kill, as well. For starters, they are a faster team than in previous seasons. They play the game smoother than they have before, and that makes them more team. In terms of expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60), the Flyers are the very best team in the NHL with their xGA/60 at 2.61. Last season, they ranked 21st in the category. In 2021-22, they ranked 30th. In 2020-21, they were 16th. This defensive improvement has been out of nowhere, and has sustained itself through a decent chunk of the season.
The Flyers’ elite play defensively has arguably been more impressive on Shaw’s penalty kill. They have only allowed eight goals, yet they have scored six of their own when down a man. With an expected goals percentage (xG%) of 42.9, the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks have a worse xG% at 5-on-5 than the Flyers when they are just limited to 4-on-5 play, while the Washington Capitals are identical in xG% to Philadelphia. Essentially, the Flyers have been more or as successful when limited to four skaters than some teams when they have five. Truly, the Flyers are an anomaly.
The latter point might have you think that the Flyers’ play is unsustainable, but the individual success of their players suggests otherwise. Collectively, the Flyers have a goals saved above expected (GSAx) of minus-4.2. Over an 82-game season, that would place them at a minus-13.8 rating — far worse than their team GSAx of a plus-0.2 last season.
In addition, the Flyers’ shooting percentages are more than sustainable. As a team, they are shooting at 8.8 percent, which puts them at fourth-worst in the NHL. Their most effective shooter, Louie Belpedio, is in the American Hockey League (AHL) and had scored on 16.7 percent of his shots on goal with the Flyers. The Flyers’ success has been much more about the system than it has about individual players blossoming, which shows that an injury or scoring slump likely won’t stop them from winning.
What Could Be in Store Past the Trade Deadline
Past the Trade Deadline is when the Flyers could start to fall. Essentially every single piece on the team is valuable, so when that’s messed with it could start some trouble. In some ways, the Flyers draw some comparisons to the Anaheim Ducks in the 2021-22 season. The Ducks entered March with a 26-21-9 record, yet ended the season with a 31-37-14 record after trading defenseman Hampus Lindholm to the Boston Bruins at the Trade Deadline. Finishing with the 10th-overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, they took defenseman Pavel Mintyukov, who might be one of the best players in that draft as of now.
This exact scenario could be the Flyers’ future, as well. While Flyers’ defenseman Sean Walker is no Lindholm, he has been a very good fit on the second pairing in orange and black. If the Flyers choose to trade him at the deadline, that’s when things might get dicey (but it would also give the team a good shot at acquiring a solid prospect in the draft.)
Sustainability is difficult to outright impossible to predict once the Trade Deadline hits. Most sellers will regress, but some teams can find replacements within the organization that give them wins during the final stretch of the season. It is unknown whether or the Flyers have that — or even if it will be a reality of theirs in the coming months — so projecting is tough. In all likelihood, the Flyers would start to see their record fall apart if they were to sell a number of players at the Deadline.
Flyers Need to Take Success With a Grain of Salt
If Shaw is not with the Flyers next season and earns a head coaching gig elsewhere, the Flyers will be in a tough spot. They will have lost the main anchor for their defense and excellence on the penalty kill alike. Neither has been dominant in recent memory, even spanning back to when the Flyers were legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.
Entering this season after the Flyers posted a 31-38-13 record in 2022-23, he was a candidate to be the head coach of multiple teams. If the team’s success continues, there is a good chance he will be a head coach somewhere else, especially if teams already gave him consideration before this season began. This would be devastating news for the Flyers, so they have to take their success with a grain of salt. Building off their success might be a mistake if they lose the system.
In addition to losing the mastermind behind the Flyers’ highly successful defense and penalty kill, the Flyers would likely have a tough time finding the same success without making any big moves in the first place. Whether the Flyers feel they are in a position to make a splash in the offseason is yet to be determined, but even that doesn’t guarantee them to be a playoff team. The goal is to win a Stanley Cup, so lots of things have to go right for the team to try to progress forward into that stage of the rebuild. For all we know, this season could just be a mirage and not anything indicative of the future. It seems as though the Flyers can continue their winning ways this season, but going beyond that is tricky.
The unpredictable nature of hockey from season to season is what should really make the Flyers cautious. They have to truly know what they have, and losing someone like Shaw on top of some pieces already on the team would be a bit concerning. Regression is the most likely result if those things play out, so being overly aggressive is not the move. Risks are necessary, but trading draft picks and young players even if the Flyers do make the playoffs this season would be a mistake.
Overall, the Flyers should be happy with where they are. For this season alone, their success can be sustained. Barring a colossal losing streak, too much time has passed to use the “it’s too early” excuse this time: they have continued to win and haven’t seen their play regress from two months ago in the slightest. With that being said, their wins shouldn’t dramatically alter their rebuild, either.