Before the season began, I wrote about potential Stanley Cup contenders in each conference. While the standings haven’t flipped upside down regarding Cup contenders, there have been some changes from the preseason. In this article, we’ll look at the Western Conference, which has seen one team emerge as a new Cup contender and one that has had quite the fall with a rough start to the season.
Vegas Golden Knights: Stock Remains the Same
The Golden Knights are the reigning Cup champions, and there’s no reason to think they aren’t contenders with their start to the season. They have cooled off a bit since a hot beginning to 2023-24 but still own a 17-5-5 record, good for 39 points and the top spot in the Pacific Division.
A significant reason for the Golden Knights remaining atop the Pacific is because of strong goaltending from Adin Hill and Logan Thompson. Hill has been excellent, totaling a .935 save percentage through 14 games while stopping 12.6 goals above expected. It’s early, but he’ll be a favorite for the Vezina Trophy if he keeps that up.
Thompson has been solid, too, totaling a .917 SV% in 14 games while saving 9.0 goals above expected. In an age where teams run tandems in net, the Golden Knights couldn’t ask for much better than what they’re getting from Hill and Thompson.
Even without elite goaltending, the Golden Knights would probably get by with league-average netminding. They have an excellent skater group and have played well at five-on-five, totaling a 52.65 expected goals percentage (xG%) to begin the season.
Injuries are always a concern for any playoff or Cup contender, but as long as the Golden Knights remain healthy, they should be in the running to win the Western Conference once the playoffs begin in April.
Colorado Avalanche: Stock Up
The Avalanche had question marks about their forward depth to start the season. While those questions remain, they’ve navigated through it quite well, with a 16-8-2 record through 25 games. And that’s while dealing with injuries to complementary players like Artturi Lehkonen, who’s out long-term.
Still, the Avalanche have fared quite well at five-on-five. They have a 53.78 xG%, ranked sixth in the NHL. While they’ve generated quality chances at a decent clip, it’s their five-on-five defense that’s been excellent. That’s helped cover up some of their depth concerns up front.
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It’ll be interesting to see what Avalanche general manager Chris MacFarland does to improve the team’s forward depth. Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin and Mikko Rantanen are scoring as expected of them, but there’s a big dropoff after those three.
After Nichushkin’s 21 points in 24 games, Ross Colton is the Avalanche’s next leading scorer up front, with 12 points in 26 games. He’s played the best of their offseason moves, as Tomáš Tatar hasn’t scored a goal in 24 games. Miles Wood has nine points in 26 games, while Jonathan Drouin has eight points in 24 contests.
Even though Ryan Johansen has nine goals in 26 games, he has just one assist. I think you get the point, but the Avalanche need to shore up their forward depth ahead of the trade deadline. They’re still Cup contenders without it, but the right moves could propel them as the team to beat.
Edmonton Oilers: Stock Down
The Oilers seem to be finding their game after a horrific start to the season, as they’re on a five-game winning streak as of this writing. Even though they’ve improved since moving on from Jay Woodcroft as coach and hiring Kris Knoblauch, their Cup-contender status has taken a hit.
Perhaps the Oilers will be Cup contenders at some point again. But even if they get it together and make the playoffs, which I think they will, there are still flaws on this team that may prove costlier than lacking forward depth, like the Avalanche.
Stuart Skinner has rebounded after his tumultuous start and has a .916 save percentage across his last ten games. But the Oilers are asking a lot of him, as he’s already started 17 of the 23 games the team has played. They need to find a goalie to be a 1B to him, and that will be easier said than done in-season.
There’s a lot to like about this Oilers team, even after the rough start. They’ve been among the best five-on-five clubs in the league, with a 57.04 xG%, ranked second in the NHL. Connor McDavid looks healthy and is on a tear again, but they need to figure out goaltending before declaring them Cup contenders. Adding some defensive depth help could help, too.
Dallas Stars: Stock Remains the Same
The Stars were among my favorites to win the Cup in the preseason, and their start to the season only reinforces their contender status. They sit in second place to the Avalanche in the Central Division, with a 15-7-3 record, good for 33 points.
The Stars have a good mix of veterans (Joe Pavelski, Tyler Seguin, Matt Duchene, etc.) and young players (Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen, Jake Oettinger) that should prove fruitful come the playoffs. The team has also thrived at five-on-five, totaling a 54.01 xG%, ranked fifth in the NHL.
Not only are the Stars a great five-on-five team, but their special teams are among the best in the NHL. They’re converting on 24.7 percent of their power plays, ranked eighth in the NHL, and killing 86.9 percent of the power plays they’re facing, ranked fourth in the league.
The Stars made it to the Western Conference Final a season ago before falling to the Golden Knights. There’s no reason they can’t get back to the WCF and even win it this time. This isn’t a team with many flaws, and it’s shown to start the season.
Los Angeles Kings: Stock Way Up
Before the season started, I had the Kings on the outside looking in because of their goaltending setup. Cam Talbot and Pheonix Copley didn’t inspire much confidence. But at least to start the season, they’ve quieted the naysayers, specifically Talbot, who the Kings signed to a one-year deal this past offseason.
Goalies are voodoo, so you never know when Talbot could fall off, but he’s been excellent to start 2023-24. He has a .933 SV% across 16 starts and has saved 11.4 goals above expected. I don’t think many folks could’ve seen this coming, especially after a rough season in Ottawa with the Senators in 2022-23.
To be clear, Talbot is not the sole reason the Kings are Cup contenders. They’re 16-4-3 because they’ve been dominant at five-on-five, totaling a 58.92 xG%, the best mark in the NHL. Anze Kopitar is still one of the best two-way centers in the game, and young players like Quinton Byfield and Arthur Kaliyev have taken significant steps forward in their development.
On the back end, Drew Doughty has shown he has plenty left in the tank, while Mikey Anderson has emerged as a reliable shutdown defender. The Kings, as a whole, have been one of the best defensive teams in the NHL. That’s likely helped Talbot and is why I don’t think he’ll be turning into a pumpkin any time soon. If that holds, the Kings are legit Cup contenders.
Top Teams in the West Are a Threat
The Western Conference may not be as competitive as the Eastern Conference, but the top five or six teams are threats, with the Oilers lurking. With most teams having played 25 games or approaching that number, the Kings look like the best team out west.
That doesn’t mean they won’t have competition, though. The Golden Knights are still the Golden Knights, while the Stars and Avalanche aren’t far behind them. And don’t discount the Oilers if they get hot. That should make the race to the top in the Western Conference exciting down the stretch run.
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