The Edmonton Oilers have recovered from a disastrous start to the 2023-24 season. The team is now .500 for the first time, thanks to many factors. Coaches Kris Knoblauch and Paul Coffey have done a great job, positively impacting all areas of the team, but it was about time that the third line played a major role and stepped up.
The Oilers haven’t been known as a shutdown team, nor do they have great goaltending, and since Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl arrived, the team has struggled to find depth scoring as well. The top-six has carried the load offensively until recently, and while the group couldn’t score at their usual high rate, the Oilers failed to win games. However, since the third line found chemistry and picked up their game, the team started to turn their play around. Coincidence?
What Kind of Trust the Oilers’ 3rd Line Has Earned
Since the coaching change, ice time has been reallocated throughout the forward lines to include the depth players. It is a great move to avoid wearing out the Oilers’ top players and allow the depth to step up. In previous seasons, this hasn’t been the case. I could argue that all except McDavid and Draisaitl were worn out by playoff time last season, and that caused the lack of production, as the other top players’ numbers dropped from the regular season.
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Knoblauch knew what needed to be done immediately after taking over as head coach: get production from his depth players by trusting them and allocating more time to the bottom two lines. More than the fourth line, who average an ideal eight to 10 minutes a game, the third line has been crucial to the Oilers’ success recently. Together, Ryan McLeod, Warren Foegele, and Mattias Janmark really started to gel when Janmark returned from injury and slotted back in.
This line has speed, tenacity, and drive, which was evident even when they weren’t scoring. So, as their strong play continued, they weren’t skipped over on the bench. Instead, Knoblauch started the game with this line on multiple occasions recently. They set the tone, and the Oilers have been feeding off them, winning seven in a row. Now that the team has started scoring at five-on-five, there’s every reason to continue playing them 14-plus minutes a night, matching up against top opposing lines. This line even had the tough assignment of shutting down Nico Hischier’s line in the win over the New Jersey Devils on Dec. 10, and they did it.
What the Oilers’ 3rd Line is Doing Right to Earn the Trust
All three of McLeod, Foegele, and Janmark have above 51 percent split in all of the following categories: Corsi for percentage (CF%), Fenwick for percentage (FF%), shots for percentage (SF%), expected goals for percentage (xGF%), scoring chances for percentage (SCF%), and high-danger chances for percentage (HDCF%), while all having a sub 1.00 PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage while on the ice).
Not only do they all rate above 51 percent in every single one of those categories, but in many cases, they are far above it.
| Ryan McLeod | Warren Foegele | Mattias Janmark | |
| CF% | 60.51 | 58.11 | 51.55 |
| FF% | 59.52 | 57.35 | 52.36 |
| SF% | 61 | 57.34 | 51.11 |
| xGF% | 58.68 | 56.72 | 59.25 |
| SCF% | 63.79 | 60.31 | 57.38 |
| HDCF% | 60.78 | 56.69 | 63.16 |
It took McLeod until his 22nd game of the season to score a goal (on an empty net), but his second goal, with a goalie in net, came in the next game. His lack of offensive production had some people suggesting the team move on from him, but he has two goals and five points in his last nine games. He’s a staple on the third line and not going anywhere.
Foegele’s strong play has earned him opportunities throughout the season, but the best place for him seems to be on this third line (from “Connor McDavid pushed for the Oilers to keep Warren Foegele. Here’s why it’s paying off,” The Athletic, Nov. 6, 2023). As for Janmark, he is showing that he deserves to stay on this line when Dylan Holloway returns, but I would also like to see how the young forward fits back in and adjusts to the line’s increased responsibility.
Related: Oilers’ First-Round Failures Since McDavid Was Drafted
The third line has been starting games, being matched against the opposition’s top two lines at home, and scoring while controlling the play. The Oilers have been waiting for this from them. There’s no reason to believe they will suddenly drop off, either. All three players’ confidence is high, and they will continue to contribute as the team marches up the standings.