As the league enters its Christmas break, giving all teams three days off for Christmas, New York Islanders fans have a lot to look back on. As of today (Dec. 20), the team sits third in the Metropolitan Divison, one point back of the Philadelphia Flyers and seven points back of the New York Rangers.
Despite being third, the team is only four points up on the New Jersey Devils, who sit sixth in the division. There is no doubt that a bad stretch of hockey could be catastrophic for the team’s playoff hopes, so how can they help solidify a spot in the top three of the division?
Islanders Caught Injury Bug
It would not be an Islanders season without losing a key player to the long-term injured reserve (LTIR). With defenseman Adam Pelech being placed on the LTIR on Nov. 25 and his long-time defensive partner Ryan Pulock getting placed on injured reserve (IR) on Dec. 8, the Islanders’ defense has taken quite a hit. These injuries have forced general manager Lou Lamoriello to resort to waivers to pick up defenseman Mike Reilly from the Florida Panthers on Nov. 25 and acquire defenseman Robert Bortuzzo for a seventh-round pick in the 2024 Entry Draft on Dec. 9.
The two defensemen have done their jobs well since coming to the Islanders. But missing both Pelech and Pulock has forced the defense to push players into roles they have never done before, such as playing Noah Dobson and Sebastian Aho on the penalty kill. The two, more known for their puck-moving and transition capabilities, have been forced to pick up extra shifts to mitigate their injured teammate’s losses. With Pulock expected to return in the coming weeks, Islanders fans need to pray to the hockey gods to stay away from the injury bug.
Getting the Most Out of the Special Teams
The Islanders currently sit last in the league in penalty killing, sporting a 72.04 percent success rate. These struggles may be attributed to the team’s injury-riddled defense, but the struggles have been there all season long. Before Adam Pelech’s injury on Nov. 25, the Islanders had a 70 percent success rate on the penalty kill, 2.04 percent worse than where they stand today.
Despite giving up the most goals on the penalty kill in the league, the team is tied for first in the NHL with eight short-handed goals. Out of the eight, five have been scored by 22-year-old Swedish winger Simon Holmstrom, who looks to be breaking out. His five goals on the penalty kill lead the league, helping make up for the Islander’s otherwise disappointing penalty kill.
While his ridiculous pace is bound to slow down, penalty kill partner Jean-Gabriel Pageau is hoping to start getting on the score sheet more. With a goal and three assists in his last six games, Pageau is finally getting the results he expects. Despite having 5.3 expected goals, he has only gotten on the scoresheet twice so far this season, shooting a mere 5.6 percent, a distinct contrast from his 11.4 percent career average. Islanders fans should not doubt that as the season progresses, Pageau will be leading the handshake line more and more.
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On the other side of the ice, the Islanders currently have three players who sit above a point per game: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, and Noah Dobson. These three players, alongside Brock Nelson, who sits at 15 goals and 28 points in 31 games, have redefined Islanders’ hockey, energizing the fan base to have hope after last season’s disappointing offensive production.
After finishing last season third to last in power-play percentage with a mere 15.77 percent success rate, the Islanders currently find themselves near the top of the league, rocking a 26.44 percent power play, the fifth-highest percentage of any team. This more than 10 percent rise can be attributed to the acquisition of Bo Horvat, who has added a veteran presence with an elite shot to the top unit. Horvat spends much of his time around the crease and in the slot, forcing defenders to leave the hash marks open to prevent these high-danger scoring chances from in front of the net.
This has opened up the ice for Brock Nelson and Mathew Barzal, who both spend their time around the hash marks on their respective one-timer sides, allowing them to get more looks from around the net. The results speak for themselves, as the three forwards have a combined 12 power-play goals just 31 games into the season. Last season, the three forwards combined for 11 power-play goals for the Islanders, a stark difference from where they stand today.
Sorokin and Varlamov Leading the Way
It is impossible to talk about the New York Islanders without bringing up their goaltending tandem. Having an undeniable top-three tandem in the NHL, Russians Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov have perhaps played the largest role in keeping the Islanders in the playoff race. Sorokin has 8.1 goals saved above expected (GSAx) this season, along with a .914 save percentage (SV%) and 3.04 goals against average (GAA). To average over three goals per game but maintain such a high GSAx shows just how much he has gone through so far this season.
The Islanders’ defense has left him out to dry night in and night out, forcing him to carry the load. Out of all qualified goaltenders who have played more than 10 games, Sorokin is first in expected goals against per 60 minutes. His 3.51 expected goals against per 60 minutes have taken quite a toll on his body, forcing the Islanders to play back-up Semyon Varlamov for 11 games.
Luckily for the Islanders, Varlamov has done just as well, maybe even better than Sorokin, possessing a 5.5 GSAx, .919 SV%, and 2.73 GAA in his 11 games. To compare, Sorokin has .397 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, while Varlamov has 0.501. There is no doubt that Sorokin and Varlamov’s performances so far this season have been outstanding, but if the Islanders hope to maintain a playoff spot, they cannot continue to rely so much on their two goaltenders.
Much Needed Rest
With the team’s next five games going against divisional rivals, the Islanders will look to get some much-needed rest over the holiday. From the power play to goaltending, the Islanders have quite a few positives to build on as they prepare for their important stretch of games in the coming weeks. If the team can maintain the success it has had over the past few weeks, this roster, once healthy, will look to match up well with anyone who comes their way.