The 2023-24 NHL season has hit the unofficial halfway point with the All-Star Break underway. At this point in the season, the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pack and likewise, the bottomfeeders are preparing to trade away players for value at the trade deadline in a few weeks. Before the season began, many fans and experts partook in a longstanding tradition of making predictions, inaccurate ones that is.
Related: The Hockey Writers’ 2023-24 NHL Season Predictions
The Hockey Writers made a handful of predictions and some have looked good but a lot of them are already showing they aren’t going to happen this season. With this in mind, let’s look at some of the predictions and perceptions that are aging poorly and when exactly it became clear they weren’t going to hit.
Sabres & Senators Are Ready To Contend
Heading into the season, both teams looked ready to take big strides in the Atlantic Division. Not only were the Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators expected to contend for playoff spots but both teams were expected to become juggernauts in the Eastern Conference.
The Sabres ended last season with a 42-33-7 record and just one point out of a playoff spot. With a young core led by Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, and Dylan Cozens who fueled an offense ready to take the league by storm, while Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power led the defense, they looked like a team destined for a playoff spot. The same could be said about the Senators who despite trading away Alex DeBrincat in the 2023 offseason, had a great roster assembled. The young skaters, notably Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk, were heading into their primes and the Jakob Chychrun addition at the 2023 Trade Deadline looked like it would solidify the blue line. This prediction became disastrous a month into the season.
The Sabres struggled on defense and failed to find a reliable goaltender but more importantly, haven’t been the same offensively. They scored 3.57 goals per game a season ago but have only averaged 2.98 goals per game at the All-Star Break this season. The issue has been highlighted by injuries notably with Thompson, who scored 47 goals and 47 assists last season, struggling to remain in the lineup.
The Senators meanwhile have seen their season go up in flames in every way imaginable. With a 20-25-2 record at the break, which is the worst in the Atlantic Division, they’ve been forced to fire both their head coach D.J. Smith, and general manager (GM) Pierre Dorion. What makes things worse for the Senators is that the season has gone off the rails despite possessing one of the best and most dynamic offenses in the league. They average 3.34 goals per game and struggle to win games with a defense allowing 3.62 goals per game.
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Both teams have enough talent to put together a strong second half of the season. The Sabres won seven of their last 11 games heading into the break and at 22-23-4 they could finish the season above .500 and not at the bottom of the division. The Senators meanwhile could see things turn around with Jacques Martin behind the bench. However, any hope of making the playoffs for either team is all but lost at this point barring a miracle.
Oilers Are Done!
The Edmonton Oilers entered the season expected to compete for the Cup (THW picked them and the Carolina Hurricanes to meet in the Final). When they started the season 3-9-1, it looked like any hopes of them winning it all went up in flames. The Oilers were a mess and their goaltending was a notable disaster with Stuart Skinner struggling and Jack Campbell playing poorly enough to be sent down to the American Hockey League (AHL).
Then came the coaching change. The Oilers fired Jay Woodcroft and hired Kris Knoblauch who immediately turned things around. The Oilers are led by a remarkable offense, one that averages 3.51 goals per game with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman lighting up the scoresheet while the defense has tightened up and rounded out the team. Moreover, Skinner has looked like a much-improved goaltender with the team in front of him playing better defense and limiting shots on the net. They went into the All-Star Break with a 29-15-1 record and with a 16-game winning streak which catapulted them into third place in the Pacific Division.
The turnaround has helped with many preseason predictions involving the Oilers, including winning the Western Conference and the Stanley Cup. They went from aging poorly to back on track to suddenly looking like an unbeatable team. There’s still of a lot of hockey left but the Oilers look like they’ll finish the season where everyone thought they would which is wild considering how things started.
Bruins & Panthers’ Regressions
The Boston Bruins went 65-12-5 last season to easily win the Presidents’ Trophy with the league’s best record. After failing to win the Cup, it was easy to think they wouldn’t follow up the great season with another remarkable one. The Bruins looked poised to struggle, especially with Patrice Bergeron, their captain and perennial Selke Trophy winner, and David Krejci, their other top-six center, retiring in the 2023 offseason.
Turns out, the Bruins are still a dominant team, and with a 31-9-9 record at the break, they once again boast the best record in the Atlantic Division. The top-six center issues were resolved with Charlie Coyle stepping up and becoming one of their top skaters with 18 goals and 24 assists. The defense and goaltending duo of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman remained intact from a season ago and it’s proven capable of beating anybody in the league.
The Florida Panthers were the team that beat the Bruins in the first round last season in a dramatic seven-game series. After the stunning upset, they defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs in five games and swept the Hurricanes to reach the Stanley Cup Final. After a remarkable run, it was hard to expect them to once again be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Keep in mind, this is a team that barely reached the playoffs last season as the final wild card team.
The regression never happened. The Panthers have the second-best record in the Atlantic Division and the same stars who led them to the Final are helping them have another great season. Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk remain two of the best two-way players in the game and have helped turn the defense into one of the best in the league. The Panthers allow only 2.57 goals per game with Barkov and Tkachuk combining for 3.2 defensive point shares while the defensive unit is led by Gustav Forsling, who is one of the best skaters in the defensive end this season.
The Bruins and Panthers are intertwined for their playoff series last season and the two teams could once again meet up in the playoffs. This time, with neither team expected to end the season in a wild card position, they could face each other in the second round with the winner getting a clear path to the Stanley Cup.
Devils & Hurricanes Wouldn’t Be Derailed By Goaltending
The top two teams in the Metropolitan Division a season ago have two of the best rosters in the NHL. With good or even average goaltending, both teams would once again contend for the Stanley Cup. After all, the Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils have star-studded rosters that can make up for the weakness in the net, right? Wrong! The goaltending woes set both teams back and became the primary reason for their slow starts.
The Devils hoped Akira Schmid would build off his performance in the 2023 first round series where he helped them defeat the New York Rangers in a seven-game series. He’d be a great fit alongside veteran starter Vitek Vancek and the duo could hold down the fort. However, Schmid became a liability in the net with a .893 save percentage (SV%) and a 3.26 goals-against average (GAA) on 383 shots with negative-4.1 goals saved above average (GSAA), forcing the team to send him down to the AHL. Vanecek meanwhile was tasked to be the primary starter and didn’t have another goaltender to split starts with causing him to struggle as he has a .886 SV% and a 3.24 GAA on 763 shots with negative-13.4 GSAA.
The Hurricanes hit a low point when they lost 4-3 to the Vancouver Canucks on Dec. 9, falling to 14-13-0 on the season. Frederik Andersen was on injured reserve while Antti Raanta continued to struggle as the primary starter. Ultimately, the team had to send Raanta to the AHL and ask 24-year-old Pyotr Kotchetkov to carry them in the net before they called Raanta back up out of necessity. All season long, the offense has played at a high level and the defensive unit continues to impress on both ends of the ice yet the goaltending costs them games they otherwise could have easily won.
Fortunately for both teams, the goaltending issues didn’t doom them. The Hurricanes, with Raanta’s recent rebound and the acquisition of Spencer Martin, found their footing and have climbed to the top of the Metropolitan Division. The Devils have stumbled throughout the season but remain in the middle of the division and a strong second half will once again have them in the playoffs. That said, goaltending set back two otherwise well-built teams and it’s a lesson for front offices around the league to not overlook the position.
Flyers Are Still Rebuilding
Many fans and experts were way off on their Philadelphia Flyers predictions. They were in the middle of a rebuild and a questionable one at that. Their prospect pool wasn’t great and the core looked limited. Fast forward to the break and they have a 25-19-6 record which is the third-best in the Metropolitan Division.
The question is how the Flyers surprised everyone and not only became competitive but remained that way throughout the season. Coaching plays a big role as the team has bought into John Tortorella and his disciplined, gritty, and accountable style. The other major factors have been the youth and the depth stepping up.
Joel Farabee, Morgan Frost, and Tyson Foerster are all 24 years old or younger and have combined for 33 goals and 49 assists while Yegor Zamula and Cameron York, both 23, have combined for 4.0 defensive point shares. The Flyers already had Travis Konecny leading the forward unit and Travis Sanheim leading the defense but the young skaters have given them a surplus of talent on the second and third line as well as the later pairings.
The Flyers stumbled into the All-Star Break, losing five games in a row and being outscored 27-12 in the process. A dropoff in the second half is possible, especially with a handful of teams in the division finding their footing but that shouldn’t take away from the strong first half they put together and the pleasant surprise they’ve been thus far.
Canucks & Jets Aren’t Cup Contenders
The Vancouver Canucks and Winnipeg Jets were projected to be middle-of-the-pack teams before the season started. They are now two of the best teams in the Western Conference and favorites to win the Stanley Cup.
The Canucks have played great across the board with an offense scoring 3.80 goals per game and a defense that allows only 2.55 goals per game. The stars stepped up and Rick Tocchet has balanced out the roster in his first full season as the head coach. Without a glaring weakness, they are starting to push all their chips in and make all the moves necessary during the break.
Almost a year to the date that they traded Bo Horvat to the New York Islanders, they acquired Calgary Flames star center Elias Lindholm at the start of the All-Star Break in a blockbuster deal. The addition signals they are going all-in and might be the first of many big moves the front office makes to win in a season where everything has gone right.
The Jets lost Kyle Connor for multiple weeks with a lower-body injury and the absence of their best scorer made a drop in the standings seem inevitable. They started to win with their defense and boy, did they. Since Dec. 2, they have allowed only 1.80 goals per game with their suffocating defensive unit leading the way. Josh Morrissey remains the best two-way player on the unit while Dylan DeMelo has emerged as a shutdown defenseman with a team-leading 4.1 defensive point shares and 81 blocked shots. Along with the great defense, goaltender Connor Hellebuyck looks like one of the favorites to win the Vezina Trophy with a .924 SV% and a 2.20 GAA on 1,017 shots with a 21.0 GSAA.
For casual hockey fans, the Canucks and Jets have become two teams to root for and in a way, hope they meet up in the Western Conference Final. At first, they were surprises but now, they look like teams of destiny, ready to bring a title to a fanbase that deserves it and snap the Canadian title drought in the process.
Other NHL Predictions That Have Aged Poorly
When it was announced ahead of the season that Andrei Vasilevskiy would miss multiple months due to injury, the assumption was that the championship window had closed on the Tampa Bay Lightning. Age was catching up to the roster and the best years were in the rearview mirror.
Once again, the Lightning proved they can’t be counted out. Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman have not only kept the team competitive but the veteran players set the tone for the rest of the roster. They’ve led the way for the younger skaters and have kept the Lightning a model franchise, one that is in third place in the Atlantic Division and a contender.
The Detroit Red Wings didn’t receive a lot of confidence heading into the season. In the first few months of action, they looked like they proved the doubters wrong as they soared to the top of the Atlantic Division and proved the rebuild was over. A 5-9-1 December had their roster questioned again and it looked like they were still a season away from contending. With a 26-18-6 record at the break, they are in fourth place in the division and have yet to prove whether they are ready to compete or not.
In terms of awards, Igor Shesterkin was one of the Vezina Trophy favorites and many anticipated him winning it for the second time in his career. Likewise, Ilya Sorokin, who was a finalist for the award a season ago, was expected to take the next step and win it this season. Sorokin hasn’t received much help from his defense but Shesterkin has flat-out struggled in the net in what’s been a rough season for the world-class goaltender.
Is there a prediction you had before the season started that is aging poorly? Let us know in the comments section below.