The first round provided plenty of takeaways for fans and experts alike but for a few teams, there was one big theme that stood out. The New York Islanders, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Toronto Maple Leafs won’t win a Stanley Cup title with the core they have right now. These three teams have different issues involving their cores but the reality is that they all have the same obstacle that can’t be overcome.
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There’s a common question in the NHL when it comes to team building. Can a team win when a significant amount of the salary cap is taken up by four players? Historically, the answer is yes, plenty of teams have won it all with that type of roster build. The problem is when a team doesn’t have the elite talent capable of compensating for the lack of depth.
So as we head into a long summer for the Islanders, Lightning, and Maple Leafs, they must figure out what to do next. How can they pivot and more importantly, improve enough to become Cup contenders with minimal flexibility to do so? There are a few options but each one has unique challenges, especially since these three teams have different outlooks heading into the offseason.
Tearing Down the Core
This is the most reasonable option for the fans (at least as soon as the team is eliminated) yet the most unrealistic for all of the front offices. Aside from the fact that no team wants to blow it up after making the playoffs, it’s hard to move on from a core when all the players are locked into long-term deals. The biggest issue in particular is the no-movement clauses attached to the contracts, something the Maple Leafs have four of for each of their star players.
It’s possible to tear it down but more of a long-term project. Ironically, if any general manager (GM) knows how to tear a roster down and restart in a single offseason, it’s the Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving. As the Calgary Flames GM, he saw Johnny Gaudreau leave in free agency in the 2022 offseason and then Matthew Tkachuk demanded a trade. Treliving moved Tkachuk to the Florida Panthers in a blockbuster trade and still managed to add core players to the roster (he was fired in the 2023 offseason and the next GM had to truly tear things down and start all over again). The bottom line is that it’s possible to move on from a core and start from scratch, but it’s a long-term project.
The two things that are needed for a teardown are players who want out and players heading into free agency. This leaves the Lightning as the team in the best shape to start from scratch with Steven Stamkos heading to free agency and Victor Hedman heading to free agency after next season. They could move on from the four or five pillars that helped them win back-to-back Stanley Cup titles in 2020 and 2021, but it’s a difficult ask and probably something they want to avoid. Stamkos is the face of the franchise and even as he declines, his value to the team both on and off the ice can’t be quantified.
It’s easy to overreact to a playoff exit and demand for a team to blow it up and start all over again. With these teams, there are more realistic paths forward.
Moving on From One Piece
This is the easiest way for the teams to improve. They all have stars leading them, but do they have them in the right positions and playing the roles needed to win the Cup? The Maple Leafs invested in four forwards, putting all of their money into Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and the recently-extended William Nylander. Their core has no defenseman and no goaltender. The Islanders have a core that mirrors the Lightning, one that had success, but here’s the thing, the Islanders players aren’t good enough while the Lightning have a track record but are starting to decline with age.
The Maple Leafs pivot has all eyes on Marner, who had a forgettable first round against the Boston Bruins resulting in the playoff exit. He’s a free agent after next season and despite having a no-movement clause attached to his contract, he’s the player they can trade this offseason considering he might want to waive it to start a new chapter in his career. Moving him could allow the Maple Leafs to add a two-way defenseman and change the dynamics of the roster. If Marner doesn’t budge, they still have an avenue to pivot with Tavares becoming a free agent in the 2024-25 offseason as well. He’ll remain on his hometown team but likely on a discount and it will allow the team to reshape their roster.
The Lightning moving on from Stamkos, while difficult, will allow them to bring in someone else, albeit a less valuable player even if they are younger and more talented. With the extra cap space, they can build around Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, but for the first time in a long time, they can add depth to both the forward and defensive units.
The Islanders meanwhile have a difficult path when it comes to moving on from one piece at a time. Their star players are locked into long-term contracts with Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, and goaltender Ilya Sorokin under contract for the next seven seasons. Add in an inevitable Noah Dobson extension and the team has little room to maneuver. This makes a Brock Nelson trade an intriguing but risky proposition. He’s a free agent after the 2024-25 season but has become one of the faces of the franchise and the type of skater that would start and end his career with the Islanders. He’s this team’s Stamkos, a player that by trading him, would affect the team both on and off the ice.
The roster reshaping is possible and within reason for all these teams this offseason. If they choose to avoid it, there’s only one other option that makes sense.
A Reboot Around the Core
It’s hard not to admire what the Colorado Avalanche did. They won the Stanley Cup in 2022 and since then have gone through a significant overhaul. They moved on from essentially all the depth players from that team and built around their four stars, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar, and Devon Toews. Fast forward and they are once again competing for the Cup and have one of the best rosters in the NHL. Sure, it was easy for the Avalanche to add depth when they have four of the best skaters in the NHL, but it’s something a lot of teams invested in a core can and should do.
If the Lightning end up running it back with their stars and re-sign Stamkos while extending Hedman, they will reboot elsewhere. They have seven pending free agents aside from Stamkos and it allows them to make a handful of team-friendly signings to add depth to the roster.
The Maple Leafs seem to reboot every offseason and build around their four forwards, making the idea of doing it again appear like the definition of insanity (as some claim that insanity is trying the same thing again and again and expecting different results). The Maple Leafs have had this group together since the 2018-19 season and only have one playoff series to show for it, a sign that things must change. However, this could be their best path forward without their front office showing signs of panic.
The Islanders don’t have a good enough core, not nearly on the same level as the one the Avalanche have to emulate them, yet this is their best path forward. They have an aging roster and a reboot is needed, especially after their embarrassing showing in the first round against the Carolina Hurricanes. They can move on from some veterans and inject youth into the lineup to give this team a new and exciting look heading into next season. They don’t have a core to win a Cup but they could easily have a roster that can do it with the right type of moves in the offseason.
Other Teams That Might Tackle This As Well
The Edmonton Oilers will be an interesting team to watch. If they come up short, they must address a question they’ve dodged for a while. Is it possible to win with two skaters, in their case Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, taking up a significant amount of cap space? If the answer is no, then what comes next?
This is a franchise that is known for trading the greatest player in NHL history. If they could trade Wayne Gretzky, they could trade anyone, right? If they fail to win the Cup and see the best path forward is a pivot and a blockbuster trade, they could make the offseason all the more interesting. Draisaitl is a free agent after next season and the clock is ticking to either get an extension done or figure out a way forward.
It’s hard to make big changes to a roster that had success in the regular season. The goal however is to win the Stanley Cup and the Islanders, Lightning, and Maple Leafs are becoming more distant from that goal every season. It makes changes this offseason for these teams a must.