It’s awfully difficult to get terribly worried about the NHL these days when your local bars, restaurants and gyms are going out of business.
In fact, there’s probably not much to be worried about at all when it comes to the world’s best hockey league.
With all due respect to my good friend Brian Burke and his suggestions on Sportsnet that the NHL will face catastrophic consequences if there is no 2021 season, there’s not a lot of evidence, historical or otherwise, to believe that is actually the case.
It wouldn’t be great for business, of course. Might a team or two be lost? Theoretically, but that’s only a concern if you think the NHL, with 31 teams and about to grow to 32, is at its best with that many clubs.
Few believe that. In fact, the NHL could be well served from a business point of view if teams that contribute little or nothing to the overall health of the league (Florida, Arizona) went under. Or were mothballed, then moved.
Moreover, the current outlook envisions teams playing 56 games or less, either without fans in the stands at all or with a fraction of their seating capacity available to paying customers. So revenues are already down by 50 per cent, guaranteed. Probably much more. The remainder has to be split 50/50 with the players.
The damage, in other words, has already been done to a league that hasn’t sold a single ticket since March.
It’s really just a question of how many billions the league will lose, not whether they can play enough games to be profitable. Anything NHL owners try to do, whether it’s outdoor games or whatever, is just about slightly mitigating their losses.
No wonder the notion of not playing at all undoubtedly appeals to some NHL owners. Las Vegas owner Bill Foley, remember, said playing at 40 per cent of capacity or less just doesn’t cut it financially for the Golden Knights.
For the players, they won’t be getting their full salaries. Not even close. Regardless of how the accounting is done, if NHL revenues are down 50 per cent, the salaries of NHLPA members will be, too. It’s simple math.
For the players, then, it’s about trying to get something for playing hockey this season. Some will suffer, but the average NHL salary is about $2.5 million (U.S.), so it’s not like anybody will have to go out and find another job to put food on the family table.
Lousy, but not a catastrophe.
Then there’s the appeal of the NHL product, and whether fans will come back if the league decides it cannot play, or if a missed season will destroy customer confidence. Well, of course they will come back, particularly in the healthiest markets. The fans came back in 2005 after the league and players intentionally shut down an entire season.
If the NHL doesn’t play, it will be because worsening pandemic conditions don’t allow it do so safely, or on a solid financial footing. What intelligent person is going to hold that act of God against owners or players?
Both sides already demonstrated via last summer’s expensive bubble playoffs how much they want to play. We know that vaccines will likely allow the NHL to return to normal next fall. We also know the NHL doesn’t want to play past early July, and probably won’t be ready to start much before the end of January.
So we’re talking about a small window here. Maybe five months of hockey. That’s not going to make or break the NHL.
True, it’s going to take years to recover from the economic damage. Same as the NBA and NFL and Major League Baseball. They will all gradually recover by cutting costs and raising ticket prices and trying to get more for television rights. Or by recruiting more partners. Maybe this economic crisis will be how Quebec City gets its NHL team back.
But what happens over the next half-year isn’t going to decide anything.
This notion that the NHL must play the season at all costs or face ruin is mostly circulated by disappointed fans who miss the sport terribly, and hockey media folks who understandably want to be able to do their jobs. And keep their jobs.
In an ideal world, Gary Bettman and Don Fehr will be able to figure out a way to play next month. But conditions may not allow that to happen safely. There isn’t a game of major junior hockey being played in Canada right now because of the coronavirus.
It’s hard to imagine NHL teams flying from city to city while completely avoiding COVID infections. If the Baltimore Ravens ended up with more than 20 cases on their roster while playing once a week, aren’t NHL teams likely to run into similar challenges?
Financial constraints, meanwhile, may make playing illogical. These teams are in business to make money, not for the love of the sport. No ticket revenue, no profits.
Loading…
Loading…Loading…Loading…Loading…Loading…
That said, enough of the hyperbole. The Detroit Red Wings haven’t played since March, but if they can’t play again until September, they will survive. Hopefully that won’t happen, but the virus is making the decisions these days.
Sports are going to get back to normal, folks. We just have to be patient. People in the business of making money from sports, whether they be the owners or labour, have to be just as patient.
It doesn’t matter if they don’t want to be.
