There are two major factors that will shape NHL free agency when it officially begins on July 28.
The first takes place a week before the market opens for business: the Seattle Kraken expansion draft, in which every team not named the Vegas Golden Knights offers up a player to the NHL’s 32nd team on July 21. In turn, the Kraken will open up salary cap space for many of those teams, and will open up even more as a landing spot for veteran players whose contracts teams want to shed — sacrificing draft picks and prospects in order to do so.
“People are looking at Seattle as the Swiss bank. I don’t think [GM] Ron Francis will totally be that, but he’ll take some contracts on,” one NHL agent told ESPN this week.
The other factor is the flat salary cap, which will be stuck at $81.5 million for the second straight season due to the COVID-19 pandemic’s effect on revenue.
Some agents are optimistic that the cap will be on the rise after the 2021-22 season. One said the NHL could eclipse the $4.8 billion threshold for hockey-related revenue next season, which would allow the cap to increase by $1 million each season until the players’ escrow balance is paid off. Another anticipated “one more cycle of this” before the cap starts growing again.
But for now, it’s a flat cap, coming after a regular season in which teams lost considerable revenue playing in empty or nearly empty arenas.
Some general managers we spoke with believe this free-agent market will look like last offseason’s, with a lack of long-term deals and stagnant salaries for midlevel talents.
“I think it’s going to be the same. I don’t see how it changes. Teams still have cap issues. There’s only so much money that can go around,” said one NHL general manager.
Others believe there will be an uptick in activity.
“I feel it will be more active. Teams have had time to set up for the flat cap. Expansion concerns will be over by free agency,” said another NHL general manager, who predicted the player pool could once again increase with teams walking away from players instead of giving them qualifying offers.
“It will be a busy free-agent period, due to expansion as well as the flat cap,” said another GM. “There will be a group of players that will always get their money, but there will be a group of players that will have to be smart in regards to where they fit into the market, or they could get squeezed out with few options.”
That’s how the agents see it too. “The market is going to be tight. The players that you expect to get their money will get it, and everyone else will get squeezed,” said one agent.
One other factor worth considering: the big names potentially available via trade, including Buffalo Sabres center Jack Eichel (with a contract that pays him $10 million in average annual value) and Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Seth Jones ($5.4 million AAV). That’s going to impact whom teams are seeking to sign, and how much they have leftover to do so.
What does the current NHL free-agent market look like? Here’s a tiered guide to the players available this offseason:
Jump ahead: Best bets
Best values
Boom-or-busts
Rickety investments
Single-team stars
The spackle
Note: Players are arranged in alphabetical order within each tier. Ages listed are as of June 22, 2021.
Tier 1: The best bets
Age: 29
2021 cap hit: $3.75 million
Barrie signed a one-year contract with the Oilers in order to juice his offensive numbers and mend his reputation as a puck-moving defenseman. Mission accomplished: With 48 points in 56 games, Barrie led all NHL defenseman in scoring. He scored 23 of those points on the power play. Will teams see this as merely a product of the “Connor & Leon Show,” or will Barrie find the long-term deal he’s seeking as a free agent? And can he find it in Edmonton?
Age: 29
2021 cap hit: $3,333,333
The Avalanche goalie certainly played for a contract this season: He won 30 of his 40 appearances, going 30-9-1 with a .922 save percentage, a 1.95 goals-against average and a league-high seven shutouts. His .914 save percentage in the playoffs wasn’t stellar, but he also wasn’t reason the Avs peaced out in Round 2. The first-time Vezina Trophy finalist is going to get paid. It’s hard to imagine the Avalanche not doing the paying, unless they’ve got another option up their sleeve that can repeat the performance of this known quantity. The six-year, $6 million AAV deal Jordan Binnington landed with the Blues would seem the likeliest comparable contract.
Age: 29
2021 cap hit: $8 million
Turns out, Taylor Hall played the free-agent market pretty well last offseason. The pandemic flat cap unexpectedly reduced his options, especially for the long-term contract he was seeking, so he took a large sum of money in exchange for one year with the Buffalo Sabres and full trade protection. The Sabres stunk, and he used that protection to nudge them toward a trade with a franchise with whom he’s long desired to play: the Boston Bruins. He had a successful audition with 14 points in 16 regular-season games and scoring more playoff goals (3) than anyone not on the “Perfection Line.” He wants to remain in Boston. If the Bruins want another run with their veteran core, one assumes that’s where he’ll stay, but nothing’s signed yet.
Age: 28
2021 cap hit: $5.75 million
The Hurricanes have given their top offensive defenseman permission to find the contract he feels he’s due in free agency, potentially setting up a sign-and-trade on an eight-year deal. We chronicled some of the potential landing spots for Hamilton — from the Blackhawks to the Kraken to the Maple Leafs — but don’t count out Carolina here. The Hurricanes like Hamilton, and he knows it’s a good situation for him in Raleigh. But both sides know that some big offers could come in for a blueliner who’s as good at playing the puck (42 points in 55 games) as he is helping his team possess the puck — Hamilton has had a positive Corsi relative to his teammates in every season of his nine-year career.
Age: 28
2021 cap hit: $6 million
It wasn’t the strongest season for the Nuge, whose points per 60 minutes rate dropped under two points (1.9) for the first time in four years. There have been reports that the Oilers and Nugent-Hopkins are working on a new deal; there have also been reports that their financial offers are below expectations for the talented two-way center, who could command interest in the free-agent market as a quintessential No. 2 center on a good team — with the ability to play wing as well.
Age: 33
2021 cap hit: $4 million
Martinez just completed a six-year deal that he signed in 2014 as a member of the Los Angeles Kings. He has been one of the NHL’s better defensive defensemen — his 8.42 blocked shots per 60 minutes was the best in the league this season. But he’s a point producer too, with 32 points in 53 games this season. An ideal co-star for a top-pairing defenseman, including those on the Golden Knights, he’ll be 34 years old at the start of next season and there are a lot of miles on those tires between his 660 regular-season games and multiple deep playoff runs. But two of those runs (so far) resulted in a Stanley Cup ring, which always adds a few more dollars to the free-agent bounty.
Age: 28
2021 cap hit: $6 million
There’s some speculation that Saad’s future with the Avalanche could be tied to Gabriel Landeskog‘s future with the team, i.e. if the captain re-signs, they might not have much left over for what Saad commands. If he hits the market, he’ll be a coveted left wing: Saad is a consistent goal scorer who drives possession and can play up and down the lineup effectively.
Tier 2: The best value
Age: 29
2021 cap hit: $1.8 million
Attention to all of those contending teams seeking a “Blake Coleman type” for their bottom-six forwards after the Lightning’s playoff success: Why buy generic when you can have the genuine article? Coleman is a speedy winger who’s good for 20 goals per season, can solidify a checking line and is an asset to the penalty kill. He won’t lack suitors, and will get a considerable raise.
Age: 28
2021 cap hit: $3,083,333
Danault is having a stellar postseason. He’s playing shutdown hockey on the biggest stage of the season and he finished sixth in the Selke Trophy voting for the second straight season. He didn’t have a strong offensive season (24 points in 53 games), but that was after two straight seasons averaging over 2.3 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. It’s easy to see a team throwing some money at him as a third-line center and instant defensive fix.
Age: 29
2021 cap hit: $3.75 million
The Predators forward would be an asset for any numbers of teams looking to ratchet up the compete level of their top lines, but he does so much more. As Predators coach John Hynes summarized after the season: “He’s extremely reliable, consistent. He’s durable. He shows up every night. He practices hard. Very coachable. He can play in all situations. He can play wing, center. Very good penalty killer, can play multiple positions on the power play. You need to have guys like that to win, because he maximizes what his potential is.”
Age: 28
2021 cap hit: $2.25 million
A “Swiss Army Knife” forward, as he has a multitude of functions. He can score. He can defend. He can play up the lineup with offensive talents, or down the lineup in a depth role. The Knights acquired him on a retained salary trade with Chicago, and he’s likely a luxury they can’t afford going forward. But his versatility will be an asset for someone else next season.
Age: 28
2021 cap hit: $4,166,666
If the Oilers can’t work out a deal with the centerpiece from the Taylor Hall trade, other teams would be smart to pounce on the 6-foot-3 Swede. He’s a classic defensive defenseman who plays a tough game, both suppresses and blocks shots, and gives quality minutes on the penalty kill. Ideally, given the state of Edmonton’s back end — it doesn’t have anything resembling Larsson on the right side if he leaves — the Oilers would want him back, even after a brief playoff performance that was notable for his gaffes. Larsson has now played over 600 games, mostly with the Oilers in their top four. Finding the right term is going to be tricky, as the NHL has seen its share of defensive D-men hit a sharp decline past 30 years old.
Age: 28
2021 cap hit: $2,137,500
The Stars love the 6-foot-6 defenseman, especially as a partner for young star Miro Heiskanen, and held on to him though the trade deadline despite a lot of interest from other teams. That interest is only going to increase if he hits the market. He can play 20 minutes per game in a top-four role and kills penalties. Assuming that interest, will Oleksiak’s new deal get a little too rich for the Stars?
Age: 36
2021 cap hit: $750,000
The new Pat Maroon? Perry has left everything on the ice (including his blood) for the Dallas Stars and the Montreal Canadiens in the past two postseasons. Another one-year, league-minimum contract with a contender seems likely if he wants to continue his career. The question is whether that contract comes during the free-agent frenzy or during training camp after teams see what their rosters look like.
Age: 30
2021 cap hit: $4,250,000
A steady presence for the Lightning and the Blue Jackets this season, Savard played well with the spotlight on him in during the postseason. He has some offensive upside on his résumé, but his value is as a defensive defenseman and especially on the penalty kill. Given Tampa’s salary cap situation, this seems like a straight rental. It’s a crowded market for guys with his skill set, but he’s on the top end of them.
Age: 27
2021 cap hit: $2.6 million
The Sabres would like to re-sign Ullmark, who has played effectively for them in the past two seasons — when he has played. Ullmark’s health is a consideration for any team that wants to sign the talented Swede, but he could help shore up someone’s goaltending tandem.
Tier 3: The boom-or-busts
Age: 27
2021 cap hit: $850,000
Driedger is a tough goalie to figure out. He was a revelation in his fifth NHL season, going 14-6-3 with a .927 save percentage and a 2.07 goals-against average. With Sergei Bobrovsky‘s immovable contract and rookie Spencer Knight having arrived, there’s no room for him with the Panthers. Does another team see him as a late-blooming solution in goal, a “No. 1-A” to rotate with an incumbent, or a one-hit wonder who’s not worth a long-term investment? One possible landing spot: Seattle, where the Kraken could sign him and make him their selection from the Panthers.
Age: 31
2021 cap hit: $4 million
Hoffman was what the Blues knew he was when they signed him to a one-year deal: a goal scorer (17 in 52 games) who excels on the power play (17 points, second on the team) but whose defense was lacking to the point where coach Craig Berube limited him to 15 minutes per game and made him a healthy scratch at times. His best run in the season was when the Blues needed it the most, helping them make the playoffs. Was that enough to earn another look in St. Louis, or is Hoffman on to his third team in three seasons?
Age: 29
2021 cap hit: $2.25 million
The expectation is that unless Hyman is willing to take a steep hometown discount, his days with the Leafs are numbered. He could command a contract in the neighborhood of six years and $6 million annually on the open market. Toronto’s probably not going there for the 29-year-old forward, given its cap complications — and frankly, Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner should be the ones elevating their winger, not the other way around. Hyman is a solid 5-on-5 player who kills penalties, and his performance as a top-line winger can’t be underestimated. He’s going to help someone.
Age: 27
2021 cap hit: $3.85 million
The theory from GM Bill Zito in acquiring Montour from the Sabres was that a change in scenery would do wonders for him. That it did: He was a plus-8 in 12 regular-season games and helped drive possession in the postseason. Before three tough years in Buffalo, Montour was seen as a strong offensive defenseman with some obvious defensive holes on his game. It’ll be interesting see whether the stint in Florida helped rewrite his story.
Age: 29
2021 cap hit: $3.125 million
The Hurricanes’ most frequent starting goalie for the last three seasons, he can be effective (23.3 goals saved above average over the last two seasons) when he’s in the lineup … which he wasn’t too often this past season, as injuries limited him to 12 games.
Age: 27
2021 cap hit: $4.6 million
Murray was solid if unspectacular this season for the Devils, playing well in his own end while having the ability to move the puck along to the offensive players. The market for this kind of defenseman is so robust that someone could end up with a nice short-term bargain in Murray.
Age: 30
2021 cap hit: $4.65 million
What a difference a postseason makes. After scoring eight goals in 34 games with the Devils and two goals in his first 17 games as an Islander, he scored seven goals in his first 15 games in the playoffs. This season broke a streak of five seasons in which Palmieri played to a 20-goal pace. While he’s got some miles on him, Palmieri can be an effective winger on a scoring line on both ends of the ice.
Age: 27
2021 cap hit: $1.5 million
Few players saw their stock rocket up after the trade deadline like Reilly did, as he fit snugly on the Bruins’ blue line and had eight points in 15 games. If the price is right, the Bruins could explore keeping the puck-moving defenseman around. But given his play, and his penchant to help drive possession, he could help someone’s blue line and power-play depth.
Age: 30
2021 cap hit: $5.3 million
While Tatar played well on a line with Brendan Gallagher and fellow free agent Phillip Danault, his age and salary likely mean his days in Montreal are numbered. Tatar is a play-driving winger who averaged 3.0 points per 60 minutes at even strength in 2019-20, before his numbers dipped this season. “Tuna” is a 20-goal threat in the regular season … but his postseason numbers might have potential contenders thinking twice about him, with just five points in his past 23 postseason games.
Tier 4: The rickety investments
Age: 31
2021 cap hit: $5 million
All indications are that the five-season relationship between Andersen and the Leafs is at an end, due to his salary ($5 million against the cap) and two straight seasons of diminishing returns. But it’s probably also time for Andersen to move on, too. As one of the only established starters on the open market, he’ll attract a lot of interest, perhaps from Eastern Conference rivals like Pittsburgh, Washington and Carolina, who sought a trade for him before the season.
Age: 44
2021 cap hit: $1.525 million
Chara said he’s going to discuss his future in the NHL with his family before making a decision on returning for 2021-22, which would be his 24th season. He had five points in 55 games last season with Washington, playing 18:19 per game. He might have lost a step, but he was far from unrespectable. “After those conversations, I’m going to probably let those emotions settle in and see where I’m at,” he said.
Age: 33
2021 cap hit: $5.5 million
An injury foiled the plans for both the Leafs and Foligno to have him be a postseason difference-maker. Reportedly, he wants to remain with Toronto, and at the right price for a player turning 34 in October that could make sense. But his shooting percentage has dipped under 10% in two straight seasons and he isn’t driving play like he once did. Foligno brings grit and undeniable intangibles, though.
Age: 30
2021 cap hit: $1.25 million
Since 2017, Hamonic’s spot in the NHL has been determined by geography, with a stated desire to play in Western Canada. Sportsnet reported that the defensive defenseman is willing to consider all options after his one-year deal with the Canucks this season. That doesn’t take Vancouver out of the running, but it does open up the marketplace for a strong 20 minute-per-game blueliner.
Age: 34
2021 cap hit: $5 million
Remember when the Hammer was considered among the NHL’s elite defensive defensemen? That was probably overstated at the time, but age and injuries have really dragged his stock down in his four seasons with the Coyotes, putting him at a sub-replacement level in the past two campaigns. Might be worth a look as a third-pairing shot-blocker.
Age: 32
2021 cap hit: $4.25 million
On the one hand, Raanta is 21st in the NHL in goals saved above average over the past three seasons (31). On the other hand, he has played only 57 games in those three seasons, ranking him 54th among all goaltenders. That’s Raanta in a nutshell: He can be fantastic when he plays, but he’s been limited to just 12 games in two of the past three seasons.
Age: 32
2021 cap hit: $1.5 million
Simmonds had a resurgent year in a depth role on the Leafs for 38 games, with a strong puck-possession season, good power-play work and some much-needed physicality. But he was sub-replacement level (minus-2.5 goals scored above average), thanks mostly to his nonexistent point production at 5-on-5. He would be open to coming back to Toronto, but given what happened with the Leafs in the playoffs, one assumes changes are afoot and they’ll begin in the team’s depth departments.
Age: 35
2021 cap hit: $6.5 million
The vibe from Stastny after a solid season playing several roles for the Jets was that he likes the fit and wouldn’t mind remaining in Winnipeg, where he feels “wanted.” The question is how much of a haircut he’s willing to take from that cap hit on his last deal. As a point of reference, his actual salary this season was $5.5 million. If things don’t work out, he could be a good veteran to have on hand on a one-year deal for a contending team.
Age: 29
2021 cap hit: $5.35 million
When asked about Schwartz after the season, Blues GM Doug Armstrong said Schwartz indicated earlier in the year that he was willing to wait on talks. “He was going through a lot of things personally, and now we have until the end of July to figure out if this relationship is going to continue,” said the hard-negotiating GM. The Blues have over $17 million in open cap space. Will they want to dedicate enough of it to Schwartz, a 10-year veteran with the team who produced offensively but misses time to injury seemingly every season? If not, he can slide into someone else’s top six with ease.
Age: 41
2021 cap hit: $700,000
Jumbo turns 42 on July 2. The icon played his 23rd NHL season with the Leafs, driving play and averaging a respectable 1.7 points per game. His 13:43 in ice time was a career low, and he produced one goal in seven playoff games for the Leafs. If he wants to continue playing, there might be another one-year, league-minimum deal out there for him. “I feel really, really healthy. I feel really, really good. But we’ll see. I haven’t made any decision yet,” he said.
Tier 5: Hey, if Chara can leave Boston…
Age: 35
2021 cap hit: $6 million
The Canucks are the only team Edler has known in his 15-season NHL career, and there’s a good chance it stays that way after he signs his next contract. While his agility isn’t what it used to be, Edler is a steady two-way defender and the essential veteran the Canucks want on hand for a very young left side of their defense. The only issue here is term, and whenever you’re dealing with a beloved veteran, that can sometimes be a point of demarcation.
Age: 36
2021 cap hit: $8.25 million
No one knows for sure if Getzlaf will return for a 17th NHL season — not even Getzlaf, who said he’s going to discuss his future with his family. His massive eight-year deal finally ended this season, ushering in what we’re sure is a series of one-year contracts should he seek to continue his career. He seemed open to leaving for a contender if the right deal came around for GM Bob Murray at the trade deadline. But as far as a contract for next season, it’s hard to imagine Getzlaf signing elsewhere given the roots he has put down locally in Anaheim.
Age: 35
2021 cap hit: $7.25 million
The Bruins’ longtime second-line center was third on the team in goals scored above average (12.5) in a season that saw him amass 44 points in 51 games. He clicked well with Taylor Hall (a fellow free agent) and continued to build on his legacy as “Playoff Krejci” with nine points in 11 games. He has expressed a desire to remain in Boston, but he also has told the Bruins that he’d like to return to his native Czech Republic with his family and play there at some point. “We’re going to sit back down and have a real honest conversation,” GM Don Sweeney said recently. It’s likely either home or adopted home for the veteran center.
Age: 28
2021 cap hit: $5,571,429
There’s no reason to believe that Landeskog and the Avalanche won’t find some common ground on a contract. He’s their team captain, has spent 10 seasons with the organization and had 52 points in 54 games as the third component of their immensely effective top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. But the Avalanche cap picture is no longer as quaint as it’s been under GM Joe Sakic, with star defenseman Cale Makar coming off his rookie deal and Vezina Trophy-nominated goalie Philipp Grubauer needing a new deal. If Landeskog isn’t keen on taking a hometown discount compared to what he could earn on the open market, he could end up in a different town.
Age: 35
2021 cap hit: $9,538,462
Admittedly, it’s fun to fantasy cast Ovechkin on other NHL teams. Taking passes from Connor McDavid or (gasp!) Sidney Crosby? Skating for his old GM George McPhee in Vegas? But Ovechkin wants to retire as a member of the Capitals and his agent is confident that they’ll find common ground on a new deal after his 13-year, $124 million contract finally expires. (That agent, of course, being Alex Ovechkin himself.)
Age: 34
2021 cap hit: $7 million
After the Bruins’ playoff exit, it was revealed that Rask needs surgery to repair a previously undisclosed torn labrum in his hip, which will put him on the shelf until January. GM Don Sweeney has discussed Rask’s situation in a way that makes it sound like he’s in the plans if he decides to play again next season: “We’re still in the early stages, and feel comfortable with the depth, but we have a very crucial decision to make and chart a course for certainly the first part of the season as to when Tuukka will be ready. And we have to forecast that accurately if Tuukka does decide to come back and play and how he fits in,” he said. However, until we see what the Bruins ultimately decide to do in goal, there are no promises that Rask is wearing black and gold for a 15th season.
Age: 38
2021 cap hit: $5 million
Rinne hasn’t ruled out playing for someone other than the Predators if he decides to return for season No. 16 in the NHL. The three options he’s facing: returning to Nashville, where he’ll be the clear backup to Juuse Saros; retirement, as he turns 39 in November; or joining another team’s tandem after a career in Nashville. “I don’t want to say anything that I’m going to regret. I want to keep that door open too and weigh my options here,” said Rinne, who bounced back to a .907 save percentage and a 2.84 goals-against average in 24 games after a horrible 2019-20 season.
Tier 6: The spackle
Artem Anisimov, C, Ottawa Senators
Joel Armia, LW, Montreal Canadiens
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, LW, Vegas Golden Knights
Jordie Benn, D, Winnipeg Jets
Jonathan Bernier, G, Detroit Red Wings
Zach Bogosian, G, Toronto Maple Leafs
Nick Bonino, C, Minnesota Wild
Tyler Bozak, C, St. Louis Blues
Connor Carrick, D, New Jersey Devils
Alex Chiasson, RW, Edmonton Oilers
Casey Cizikas, C, New York Islanders
Andrew Cogliano, C, Dallas Stars
Cody Ceci, D, Pittsburgh Penguins
Ian Cole, D, Minnesota Wild
Jason Demers, D, Arizona Coyotes
Ryan Dzingel, C, Ottawa Senators
Devan Dubnyk, G, San Jose Sharks
Tyler Ennis, C, Edmonton Oilers
Alex Galchenyuk, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Alex Goligoski, D, Arizona Coyotes
Barclay Goodrow, LW, Tampa Bay Lightning
Carl Gunnarsson, D, St. Louis Blues
Erik Gustafsson, D, Montreal Canadiens
Erik Gudbranson, D, Nashville Predators
Jaroslav Halak, G, Boston Bruins
Darren Helm, C, Detroit Red Wings
Erik Haula, C, Nashville Predators
Carter Hutton, G, Buffalo Sabres
Marcus Johansson, C, Minnesota Wild
Jack Johnson, D, New York Rangers
Dmitry Kulikov, D, Edmonton Oilers
Sean Kuraly, C, Boston Bruins
Trevor Lewis, RW, Winnipeg Jets
Jon Merrill, D, Montreal Canadiens
Jake McCabe, D, Buffalo Sabres
Kevan Miller, D, Boston Bruins
Patrik Nemeth, D, Colorado Avalanche
Riley Nash, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
Tomas Nosek, C, Vegas Golden Knights
Mathieu Perreault, C, Winnipeg Jets
Michael Raffl, LW, Washington Capitals
James Reimer, G, Carolina Hurricanes
David Rittich, G, Toronto Maple Leafs
Bobby Ryan, RW, Detroit Red Wings
Brendan Smith, D, New York Rangers
Mike Smith, G, Edmonton Oilers
Eric Staal, C, Montreal Canadiens
Marc Staal, D, Detroit Red Wings
Brandon Sutter, C, Vancouver Canucks
Sami Vatanen, D, Dallas Stars
Travis Zajac, C, New York Islanders