Chris Johnston: Inside the NHL: Win-now Leafs have growing anti-Ontario roadblock to deal with, plus Tuukka Rask goalie class redraft

The financial hit is one thing.

An organization with deep pockets like Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment can deal with that aspect of provincial restrictions that have forced it to stage games in an empty arena since the start of January.

But the competitive hit? That’s a little more difficult for the Maple Leafs to stomach nearly two years into the pandemic.

With more than three-quarters of NHL teams based in cities where local restrictions are limited or non-existent, the Canadian clubs find themselves at a distinct disadvantage. Not only are they missing out on the energy a home crowd brings, but there are also growing whispers of players who look at the vast difference in lifestyle between, say, Dallas and Toronto and want no part of any trade that might bring them north.

Consider it an added wrinkle that Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas needs to smooth out in the weeks leading up to the March 21 trade deadline.

It’s a dynamic that will affect his colleagues in Alberta, too, with Edmonton’s Ken Holland and Calgary’s Brad Treliving both expected to be deadline buyers. But at least the province is allowing the Oilers and Flames to have some fans now.

The outlook is even sunnier in Manitoba, where the Winnipeg Jets will be permitted to return to full capacity on Wednesday.

Here in Ontario, the Leafs and Ottawa Senators are playing in front of tarped-off sections and no more than 500 fans. While there are whispers of the reopening dates being moved up by a few days — Ontario plans to allow 50 per cent capacity as of Feb. 21, and full capacity March 14 — the damage may already be done.

St. Louis Blues defenceman Justin Faulk wasn’t speaking only for himself last month when he said: “I’m not looking forward to going to Canada one bit, but we’ll play some hockey games and get it over with and then come back.”

Asked to elaborate, he replied: “I mean, it just seems to be that things are going a little bit differently up there than they are here. I like where we’re at in this country, so we’ll go with that.”

Even though his peers haven’t been so forthcoming publicly, it’s not difficult to find a player agent who will quietly tell you about clients who feel the same way. The winds are blowing strongly in that direction.

It comes at a particularly inopportune time in Toronto, where so much is riding on this season for the organization and Dubas. The Leafs are unquestionably one of the NHL’s top teams, but they play in the top-heavy Atlantic Division and will face a tough matchup in round one.

The GM will want to do everything he can at the trade deadline to give his group a chance at a long playoff run. But his job is being made tougher — not by the salary cap or the acquisition cost, but the diminished view of life in Ontario among the NHL fraternity.

Carolina’s time?

Some oddsmakers peg Carolina’s odds of winning the Stanley Cup as low as 7-1.

But do the Hurricanes fancy themselves as serious contenders?

“I’ll tell you in a few months, right? I think we’ve got the pieces,” head coach Rod Brind’Amour said in a recent interview. “I think to kind of jump on the motivation, like the fire that’s there, I feel like that’s the key to it. Obviously every team that wins, there’s a lot of things that have to line up. You’re going to have to stay healthy, all of this stuff is going to have to line in, but I think we’ve got a good chance.

“Like, I believe in this group, I’ll say that, but is it our time? I don’t know, but I’m not betting against us, that’s for sure.”

Carolina looks like it has been building toward a breakthrough with three straight playoff seasons where it won at least a round. The Hurricanes entered Sunday sitting second in the Eastern Conference with a .728 points percentage, but Brind’Amour wasn’t shy about sharing the healthy respect he has for the only team above them: Florida, at .734. He looks at the Panthers as a team without flaws.

“Listen, everybody knows Florida is the real deal. We’re going to have to beat them,” he said. “That’s the juggernaut team for me. That management team’s done a great job in how they’ve assembled that team. There’s no weaknesses.

“When you play a team sometimes you think, ‘OK, we might be able to take advantage of this or that.’ They play to their identity, which is what all the top teams do. You know what you’re going to get. You’re going to get a high-octane team, and you’ve got to be on your toes or they make you pay.

“It’s a fun team to watch; it’s not so much fun to play against. But we only have two more games with them this year.”

The next one is Wednesday. It should be a doozy.

As for the biggest improvement between this year and last, Brind’Amour pointed to the signing of goaltender Frederik Andersen over the summer.

“He’s been lights out. If I could pinpoint where we really leaned on this year … where we’re that much better, Freddie’s been the answer,” he said.

#AskCJ

Who’s a team flying under the radar that might make a trade deadline splash?

@Boyd_1212

Keep your eyes on Calgary. The Flames have the best points percentage in the Pacific Division, and were in on the bidding for Jack Eichel before he was traded to Vegas earlier this season. They’re in the market for another forward at the trade deadline and could swing big.

Do you see the #NYR being very active this trade deadline, and what’s the main position of need for the Rangers in your opinion?

@DaveyUpper

I’d expect the Rangers to be active, yes, and they’ll be shopping for a forward. They’ve kept tabs on J.T. Miller this season, but it’s not clear if Canucks president Jim Rutherford is inclined to trade his top-scoring forward with one year still remaining on his contract. There are other options out there for Rangers GM Chris Drury if a Miller reunion fails to materialize.

Will Arizona or a west coast team take a big run at Auston Matthews when he becomes a UFA?

@PeterGe38317344

It’s safe to say that every team in the league would want to take a big run at Matthews as a free agent. The real question, though, is if he’ll become one. The Leafs are eligible to extend him as of July 1, 2023 and that gives them a one-year head start on everyone else to get his signature on another contract.

I want to know why there aren’t more goaltenders in the Hall of Fame.

@Snoogins13

My best guess is that it’s because there tends to be more variation in results from year to year for goaltenders than you get with forwards or defencemen. Very few goalies put up 10 straight dominant seasons, for example, while a player like Connor McDavid will consistently be one of the league’s top point producers over that period of time.

Can you pick 3 NHL teams and choose which NFL team resembles them? You can pick whatever teams you want!

@SDPNMemes

The Leafs resemble the Cowboys. The Lightning resemble the Patriots. The Sabres resemble the Lions.

What’s your favourite Taylor Swift album?

@TaylorC_2112

I’m really not qualified to answer this question with any authority, but I’ll go with “Evermore.”

Tidbits

The Canadiens are hoping Ben Chiarot brings back at least a first-round pick at the March 21 trade deadline, so seeing him placed on injured reserve with an ankle issue should be cause for some concern … Chiarot’s absence isn’t believed to be long term, however … If the Leafs are unable to trade Nick Ritchie, he’s a candidate for a buyout this summer … Ritchie would only count $300,000 (U.S.) against the cap next season if bought out, a $2.2-million savings … Marc-André Fleury could be a big addition ahead of the trade deadline, but so far he’s received no indication from the Chicago Blackhawks about the likelihood he’s moved … The Ottawa Senators are undecided on pending UFA Nick Paul — they’ve had some brief discussions with agent Paul Capizzano on a contract extension, but haven’t ruled out putting the 26-year-old forward in play at the deadline … Despite having the NHL’s best record, the Colorado Avalanche are in the market for multiple additions via trade … It took Nazem Kadri just 43 games to register a career high in points with 62 … Among the teammates Martin St. Louis had with the University of Vermont? Dominique Ducharme, the man he replaced behind the Canadiens bench … Montreal owes Ducharme $1.7 million each of the next two seasons … The three-year extension coach Craig Berube signed with St. Louis this week came in at roughly $3.5 million per year … Of Sidney Crosby’s 499 career goals, 24 were scored against Henrik Lundqvist and 10 on Carey Price … Evgeni Malkin earned an assist on 108 of them … Crosby will become the 46th player in NHL history to hit the 500-goal mark.

C.J.’s Top Five

Tuukka Rask retired this past week, winding up a career that began with him being drafted by the Maple Leafs in 2005. Here are the top five goaltenders from that draft class:

1. Carey Price

No. 5, Montreal

The leader in games played, wins and point shares among the 2005 class. Headed to the Hockey Hall of Fame.

2. Jonathan Quick

No. 72, Los Angeles

You can’t look past his two Stanley Cup wins. Rask was the better regular-season performer, but Quick has more hardware.

3. Tuukka Rask

No. 21, Toronto

His career .921 save percentage speaks to the fact he was consistently one of the NHL’s best.

4. Ben Bishop

No. 85, St. Louis

Injuries were arguably the only thing that kept Bishop from being higher on the list.

5. Ondřej Pavelec

No. 41, Atlanta

Pavelec had some decent seasons before retiring in 2018, but was a tier behind the four ranked ahead of him here.

Parting thought

Auston Matthews has quietly entered the Hart Trophy conversation. He’s climbed inside the top 10 in the scoring race and is on pace for a 60-goal season, all while producing the strongest defensive impact of his career. The last Leaf to win the Hart was Ted Kennedy in 1954-55. Matthews has a legitimate chance to become the next one.

Chris Johnston is a Toronto-based journalist with a new gaming company. His work will be seen on the website and app for the new gaming company, and also in the Toronto Star. Follow him on Twitter: @reporterchris