Two huge names have been linked to the Edmonton Oilers this week. The first rumblings came from Sportsnet’s Mark Spector, who reported that the Oilers had talked extensively to the Chicago Blackhawks about Patrick Kane. He writes, “My sources tell me the Blackhawks would retain half of Kane’s $10.5 million salary, take Warren Foegele and Jesse Puljujarvi to make the money work, and require a first-round pick and a prospect — not Holloway or Broberg — in return.” The second name was Erik Karlsson. Chris Johnston of TSN first broke the news that the Oilers and Sharks were revisiting trade talks, with Elliotte Friedman acknowledging the same when speaking on Hockey Night in Canada Saturday evening.
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It’s not clear how serious the Oilers are about acquiring either player, but with connected speculation that Edmonton is out of the running on Jakob Chychrun (not clear how much they were ever in the running) and with GM Ken Holland saying he’ll only upgrade and not add at this year’s trade deadline, both names make sense, assuming Holland can figure out the money.
That won’t be easy to do without some juggling, but if we assume that either deal is a move the Oilers can pull off, fans are starting to wonder who makes more sense.
The Argument for Patrick Kane
The addition of Patrick Kane would give the Oilers arguably the best top-six in the NHL. Being able to deploy a combination of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, and Patrick Kane would make the Oilers deadly from an offensive perspective and give the team two incredible units at both five-on-five play and the power play. The case for going with Kane is simply that Edmonton should be able to outscore any of their other problems and win the Stanley Cup by potting more goals than their opponents.
Edmonton hasn’t had a top-flight regular right-winger for a while. Kane is having a down season, but even at his worst, he’s better than most of the plug-and-play options the Oilers have been using to round out their top two lines. He’s a legit threat to score or make a play on every possession and the idea of what he could do in a new city, with the best players in the world have fans salivating.
When compared to Karlsson, Kane’s status as a pending UFA should be taken into consideration as well. The price to acquire him should be lower, especially if the Oilers are among the few teams he’s willing to accept a trade to. He’s a rental and while he likely fetches a first-round pick, and maybe a prospect, the Oilers won’t be asked to move much more than that and can dump some of the salary cap concerns to Chicago in the deal.
The Argument for Karlsson
While Kane would look good as a winger, Erik Karlsson is an elite blueliner that the Oilers haven’t had since Chris Pronger. Karlsson and Pronger aren’t the same kinds of players, but he could have the same sort of impact from a puck-moving and offensive-production standpoint. The idea of watching him hit McDavid in stride as he breaks out of the zone, hitting Draisaitl for that one-timer, or quarterback the Oilers’ already potent power play is enticing. And, that he’d be doing so for the next four seasons makes the idea even more attractive to many.
One could argue the team’s need at defense is stronger than their need at forward. The Oilers can score; there’s no doubt about that. It’s keeping the puck out of their net that often hinders them. Some will argue that’s not Karlsson’s specialty, but others will contend the best defense is a good offense and the theory behind someone like Karlsson running your right side is that the Oilers won’t need to defend as frequently because they’ll have possession more often. His job is to get the puck going in the right direction and he does that extremely well.
The term on a reasonable contract (meaning salary retained) is what will require a bigger return from the Oilers. If Karlsson’s contract gets shaved down to around $7 million, he’s a fair value all day long, even if he never reaches the same level of production he’s having this year in the next four. But, it will cost the Oilers to have San Jose retain that much and Tyson Barrie is likely a goner.
Who Is Ultimately The Better Fit?
If looking at only this season, it might be best to take your big swing on a healthy Kane. The cost isn’t as high, the rumored return seems fair and he’d certainly help. The continued progression of Philip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais has changed the conversation a little. Kane might solve a bigger current need.
But, if the idea is to look beyond this year and build this team to be as good as Holland can possibly make it over the next four seasons and while you have McDavid and Draisaitl on their current contracts, Karlsson is the guy. He seems to have found his game again and the idea of him spearheading the Oilers’ blue line for the next four years at a reasonable number (assuming the salary retention) makes Edmonton better and a legitimate Stanley Cup contender until the end of the 2025 NHL season.