The Montreal Canadiens are just three years removed from a Stanley Cup Final appearance. So, it’s that time of year, Round 3 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, when the true contenders emerge, when Habs fans may find themselves playing “what if?”
Related: What Canadiens Can Learn from 2023 Cup Semi-Finalists
However, fans don’t need to look back with regret over what may have been. They can instead look forward to what still can be, using the teams that are still alive as models for their own success moving forward. And, if they look closely, they’ll find each semi-finalist serves as proof that the Canadiens aren’t as far off as they may seem:
4. Florida Panthers: Adequate Goaltending Can Get You Far
Obviously Sergei Bobrovsky was nominated for the 2024 Vezina Trophy as one of the league’s best goalies. And no one can deny that, following a second-straight trip to the Eastern Conference Final (winning it last year), his oft-ridiculed seven-year, $70 million deal has worked out far better than initially expected by the vast majority for the Panthers.
However, Bobrovsky’s trademark with the Panthers has far from been his consistency. One season, he’ll be a candidate to win the Vezina, posting a .915 save percentage (SV%). The ensuing postseason, he’ll be just good enough with one of .902, which ranks 11th in the playoffs.
To be clear, Bobrovsky hasn’t been bad. His 2.6 goals saved above expected (per MoneyPuck.com) rank eighth. However, it is the third-best mark among the starting goalies of the teams that remain. So, it’s just as fair to say he hasn’t been elite these playoffs, which should comfort Canadiens fans, seeing as starter Samuel Montembeault has emerged as simply NHL-calibre up to now. And Bobrovsky proves that’s perfectly all right, especially if the former’s contract is so incredibly cheap by comparison (three years, $9.45 million).
Granted, Montembeault is unproven as a playoff goalie. However, it bears reminding Bobrovsky wasn’t either when the Panthers bet on him, as he had just been coming off his first-ever playoff-round victory immediately before he signed the big contract in 2019. He’s since won six more, his current string of success effectively starting in his mid-30s.
So, the lesson is clear: As long as you build a complete team, with the Panthers having scored the 11th-most goals in the regular season (265) and having given up the third-lowest amount of shots (27.8 per game), you don’t need a star in net. Of course, seeing as the Canadiens ranked 26th (232) and 30th (33.4) in those categories, they’ve got a lot of work to do in other areas. At least they can rest easy knowing goaltending shouldn’t be a priority.
3. Dallas Stars: You Don’t Need First-Overall Picks to Find Success
Of all the players to dress these playoffs for the Dallas Stars, there’s not a single first-overall pick among the bunch. The highest-drafted is Tyler Seguin, at No. 2 overall in 2010. More to the point, he’s not even a player the Stars themselves drafted. They acquired him after the fact in a trade with the Boston Bruins. He’s also 32 and far from in his prime.
Ditto for 33-year-old Matt Duchene, who was drafted third overall in 2009, and is even further removed from his prime having gotten his contract bought out by the Nashville Predators last summer. Having signed a one-year deal on the cheap with the Stars, he’s admirably found new life with a 65-point regular season.
In the end, the Stars’ best player is defenseman Miro Heiskanen, who was similarly drafted at No. 3 in 2017. Heiskanen has obviously emerged as one of the league’s best defensemen, but he’s not exactly the generational talent Canadiens fans feel like they missed out on in Connor Bedard last summer or potentially Macklin Celebrini by failing to win this latest NHL Draft Lottery. And, even though the Canadiens did pick Juraj Slafkovsky first overall in 2022, the general consensus is the Habs missed out by winning the Lottery in a weak year.
Overall, the Stars have been built by smart drafting, with players like Wyatt Johnston (23rd overall in 2021), Thomas Harley (18th, 2019), Jake Oettinger (26th, 2017), Jason Robertson (39th, 2017), Roope Hintz (49th, 2015) and Esa Lindell (74th, 2012) all massively contributing to their success.
Some may argue the Stars are proof to the effect that tanking doesn’t pay. They would be wrong in the sense that teams that have consistently finished at the bottom of the standings, to stockpile top talent, whether by design or not, have traditionally found success themselves. The vast majority of recent Stanley Cup champions are proof to that effect and, if the Stars do go all the way, they’d end up one of the exceptions, not the rule.
Secondly, by virtue of how the Canadiens are in the process of going that road far more travelled (again, whether by design or not), the point is moot. Nevertheless, with Slafkovsky having emerged as a top-six player and a second-consecutive fifth-overall pick waiting for them, the Habs are in good shape, despite the same lack of generational talent as the Stars on their roster.
2. Edmonton Oilers: But Elite Talent Certainly Does Help
It’s admittedly been a long road to get to this point for the Edmonton Oilers, who effectively started stockpiling top draft picks in 2007 following their last trip to the Stanley Cup Final the season before. Granted, not all of them are still with the team, but enough are to make a significant difference: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1st, 2011), Darnell Nurse (7th, 2013), Leon Draisaitl (3rd, 2014), Connor McDavid (1st, 2015) and Evan Bouchard (10th, 2018).
Some may point to the exclusions of Taylor Hall (1st, 2010) and Nail Yakupov (1st, 2012) as proof that tanking doesn’t always work. And that’s true. It doesn’t. However, without the Oilers having been as bad as they had been for so long, they wouldn’t have the winning team they do now. That’s a fact. And, as alluded to earlier, plenty of recent champions have stagnated at the bottom of the standings before transforming into a winner.
With exception to the Vegas Golden Knights (2023), St. Louis Blues (2019) and Boston Bruins (2011), every champion dating back to 2009 has drafted elite talent that made a difference in their respective runs, having “earned” the opportunity to do so by struggling over extended periods of time. So, no, tanking isn’t the only strategy to win, but it has been proven to be more effective. As a result, the Canadiens and their fans can rest easy knowing as hard as the last few years have been, there’s a good chance it won’t be all for naught.
1. New York Rangers: Trust the Process
By now, everyone knows the story of the New York Rangers’ fairly quick turnaround. In 2018, general manager Jeff Gorton co-wrote an open letter to Rangers fans acknowledging the team is in the process of rebuilding, which, needless to say, is an unorthodox approach to maintaining fan loyalty, when ticket sales are traditionally a priority.
It took the Rangers four years to win a playoff game (and round) after that. In Year 6, so this season, they won the Presidents’ Trophy. It shouldn’t be lost on anyone that Gorton is now gainfully employed by the Canadiens as their executive vice-president of hockey operations. Furthermore, the end of next November will mark the start of his fourth year in the role, meaning the Habs are theoretically on pace to replicate the Rangers’ success.
Some Canadiens fans may still hate the Rangers for Chris Kreider’s collision into goalie Carey Price a decade ago now. That’s their right. However, cheering for them wouldn’t as much be a show of forgiveness as much as acknowledgement that five-year plans can for all intents and purposes work. Having gone from a league-low 55 points in 2021-22 to 68 and then 76 points this past season, the Canadiens are by all appearances on the right track.
