We’ve got our first Game 7 of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild will square off on Friday night, after the Wild fought their way back from a 3-1 deficit.
Who will be the biggest X factors of this game? Should Vegas coach Peter DeBoer go with Marc-Andre Fleury or Robin Lehner in goal?
And, who do our panelists believe will win the game, moving on to face the Colorado Avalanche in the second round of the West Division bracket?
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Who should the Vegas Golden Knights start in goal for Game 7?
Emily Kaplan, national NHL reporter: I’m genuinely torn on this. I don’t think the last two losses were Marc-Andre Fleury’s fault, by any means. But the Golden Knights have a finishing problem. They’re 2-8 in their last 10 potential close-out games, and need a jolt. I think they should start Fleury — he’s been the team’s best player all season — but if he allows one or two goals, they pull him for Robin Lehner to give the team a wake-up. It’s unfair Lehner has had to ride the bench, but that’s what happens when you have this good of a goalie tandem.
Greg Wyshynski, senior NHL writer: Fleury has a .935 save percentage and a 1.66 goals-against average in six games this series, but for two straight games he’s been on the negative side of expected goals saved above replacement. If you want to start Lehner, you can point to that. But I’d start Fleury, who has a 2.25 GAA and a .916 save percentage in seven previous Games 7. Plus, Lehner hasn’t played since May 10. The intention of moving to him now would be to send a shock to the Golden Knights’ system after two straight losses. But if a veteran team playing Game 7 on home ice needs a jolt like that, then there are problems much deeper than the crease.
Arda Ocal, In The Crease/SportsNation: Fleury might get a little blame, but I agree it’s not his fault; he’s kept Vegas in this series. Game 1 was a shutout until a redirection off Alec Martinez‘s skate in front of the net went in. Look at the first period of Game 2, where he faced 17 shots. In Game 4, he made 35 saves. Fleury has shown enough this series to start him Game 7. If things don’t go his way early, Lehner can come in.
Ben Arledge, general NHL editor: Fleury. For any other team, we aren’t even having this conversation — it speaks to the strength of this tandem. But Lehner last started on May 10, and as pointed out above, the Knights’ past two losses aren’t on Fleury. There’s no way I’m flipping to a goalie who hasn’t played in over two weeks in a Game 7 when it’s not completely necessary. It’s way easier to stick with a Vezina Trophy candidate in Fleury and turn to Lehner if the Wild start hot, than it is to start a cold goalie and have to go back to the guy who was just benched.
Sachin Chandan, fantasy hockey editor: I believe that Fleury will start, for the reasons above, but let’s compare them to see where Lehner would have an edge. Both goalies have given up more goals off their left side than their right. Six of the Wild’s 11 goals this series have come off the left side, all within 20 feet, which seems like failures of the defense in front of the goalie. At 5-on-5, the two goalies have been fairly even with their strengths. The one area where Lehner has been decisively better than Fleury this season has been on the penalty kill. Lehner has a clear edge on saving shots in front of the net on the kill, and a .918-to-.900 edge in PK save percentage, with an .889-to-.781 edge on high-danger chances. However, the Golden Knights haven’t been shorthanded all that much, being the least penalized team in the playoffs. I’d go with Fleury in Game 7.
Which non-goalie will be the biggest X factor in deciding Game 7?
Emily Kaplan: Mark Stone. He’s the emotional heartbeat of the Golden Knights — the first captain in franchise history — but he didn’t look like his dominant self in Game 6. One shot on goal, one giveaway, no hits. In his short career with the Golden Knights, Stone has put up better numbers (1.20 points per game) in Games 1-4 of a series, than in Games 5-7 (0.5 points per game). A big Game 7 could rewrite that narrative. A secret X factor is if Max Pacioretty, who led the Golden Knights in scoring this season, suits up for the first time this series. We don’t know much about Pacioretty’s injury status, other than he’s been skating on his own.
Greg Wyshynski: Since we didn’t specify “skater” here, I’ll cheat a little bit. Vegas coach Peter DeBoer is 5-0 in Games 7 as a head coach. He’s won a Game 7 with three different franchises (New Jersey, San Jose, Vegas), and he’s the only coach in NHL history to win his first five career seventh games. His call in goal for the Knights is enormous. Diagnosing why Vegas has only mustered two goals in its last two games, in which they had a chance to eliminate the Wild, is essential. He’s been behind the bench during a furious rally by an underdog to win a series. How he imparts that knowledge on the other side could be as impactful as anything his players do in the game.
Arda Ocal: Ryan Hartman has been all over the ice for the Wild. In Game 6, he scored a goal on two shots and blocked three shots. He’s been one of those players that sparks the people around him and the team. I’ve really enjoyed watching him this series, and feel like he could make a big impact in Game 7 in one way or another.
Ben Arledge: Shea Theodore. I considered Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov here — he’s due for an offensive take-over game — but I wanted to lean on someone from my predicted winning team. That’s why I’m tabbing Theodore, who is pacing all defensemen in the series with 24 minutes of ice time per game. Despite posting 42 points in 53 games this season, and ripping 22 shots through six games this series, he has been held off the score sheet in the playoffs. Ending that streak on Friday amid another heavy-minute outing could be key for the Knights.
Sachin Chandan: Jonas Brodin has been the best defensive defenseman for the Wild this series. He draws huge minutes when the Wild are in vulnerable situations, such as when they are defending a lead or on the penalty kill. He’s chipped in with three assists, tops on the Wild, and his pairing with Matt Dumba will play a significant role late, especially matched up against Vegas’s top lines.
What’s your final score pick for the game?
Emily Kaplan: Golden Knights, 4-1. I see this going similarly to their 3-0 Game 7 win over the overmatched Vancouver Canucks in last year’s playoffs. Vegas takes out some frustration, gets a boost from the home crowd and closes this out. Also give me an Alex Tuch goal. He’s been a huge factor against the team that let him go in the expansion draft.
Greg Wyshynski: Wild, 3-2 in overtime. The Golden Knights have, in their short history, made it a habit of making opposing goalies look really, really good in the playoffs. Vegas is dominating in shot attempts at 5-on-5, but is scoring below expectation. The Wild, meanwhile, are playing with a stats-be-damned level of confidence. Part of me is very sad that the Wild will win Game 7, since it will deprive us of the expected heavyweight bout of Vegas vs. Colorado for the division title. Part of me is very excited if the Wild win, because the Golden Knights could have an apocalyptic offseason reaction to this level of playoff disappointment.
Arda Ocal: Wild, 1-0 in double overtime. This feels like one that will come down to the wire, even if the rest of the series didn’t really suggest that. The series ends as it started: a tight game featuring both goaltenders standing on their heads.
Ben Arledge: Golden Knights, 5-2. I think this one starts tight, but Vegas ultimately pulls away, adding an empty-netter to seal the series. Some other gut predictions: I’m feeling a big game from Fleury, goals from Kaprizov, Stone and Reilly Smith, and as suggested earlier, at least one point from Theodore.
Sachin Chandan: Wild, 2-1 in overtime. Minnesota has all the momentum right now, and the Golden Knights’ offense has had trouble scoring lately. I expect this to be a conservative game, much like the first two periods of Wednesday’s Game 6, with the Golden Knights taking a 1-0 in the second period and the Wild getting a deflection late to send us to OT, where they ultimately win.