Dave Poulin: The Leafs can expect Matthews, Marner and Nylander to best their best seasons

It’s expected. It’s demanded. And it has been evolving for the last six NHL seasons, in one case six-plus.

Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Willie Nylander are going to have monster seasons. I don’t mean good, I don’t mean great, I mean their best respective seasons, for the second year in a row. This may sound obvious, but I’m taking each of them to a new level, which is saying a lot considering what they’ve accomplished.

The three have been good since they first put the Maple Leafs jersey on. Matthews scored four times in his first NHL game. Marner has been the Sundance Kid to Matthews’ Butch Cassidy, providing a deft pass when required but entirely capable of going solo. Nylander, often maligned for his cool and calm demeanour, has managed to show enough of his brilliant skill to always remain in the conversation of the potentially elite.

The success of the Leafs this year has been pointed at many different things: the play of their goaltenders, the health of their defence, the stregth of their third and fourth lines. But the main factor will be how brilliant their top three forwards can be.

Nylander, the elder statesman at 26, and Marner and Matthews, 25, are ready. They are at that perfect age of understanding how best to maximize your skill while still being capable of significant growth. Each is bigger and stronger, each has played more than 400 NHL games, each has enjoyed individual success. Marner has been the league’s first-team all-star right-winger the last two seasons. Matthews, the reigning MVP, also has a Calder, a Lindsay and two Rocket Richard trophies. Nylander is coming off career highs in goals (34) and points (80).

Most importantly, they’re at the stage of their careers where you realize individual awards and regular-eason wins aren’t enough. They have to want more. They have suffered staggering defeats in playoff series they were expected to win; they have lost four times in heart-wrenching seventh games. The summers have gotten longer and the reasons for those losses harder to explain. Each of these players is capable of being the difference at a key moment.

Nylander, who many felt was the most talented player in the 2014 draft — before everyone understood exactly who Leon Draisaitl was — is choosing to impose himself on the game more frequently. His low pulse rate at high-pressure moments will always be there, and he can swing that to a positive by producing results. Cool and calm can be a huge asset with positive production. He often gets better matchups because of the attention paid to Marner and Matthews, and his growing experience should turn that into his first 40-goal campaign.

Marner is poised to both separate himself from and supplement his co-star at the same time. His goal production and shot production will continue to increase, and he will top the 100 points for the first time. His decision to shoot more opens up more passing options for one of the most gifted passers in today’s game. He has averaged 53 assists through his first six seasons, and is both bigger and stronger and learning how that helps his game. He always knew how to excel as one of the smaller players.

As good as both Nylander and Marner are, they look up to the elite packaging of Matthews, six-foot-three and 215 pounds and with stick strength and board play that make him special. Our friends at SportLogiq assembled a stunning grouping of statistics that spell out how the NHL’s top goalscorer the last two years has continued to improve, expanding both his scoring range and the types of goals he scores.

He ranks in the top six players in the league in types of goals scored, being first in goals off the cycle (24) and on the forecheck (seven). He was fifth with seven rebound goals and sixth with 13 goals off the rush. Equally impressive is his diversity; he scores every way imaginable, including getting 28 goals with his trademark wrist shot.

The biggest increase could come from where Matthews is going on the ice; he has seen his scoring rise from the inner slot in each of the last three years. His willingness to attack the net and his elite puck-handling ability strike fear into the opposition.

The importance and the continued growth of Matthews, Marner, and Nylander can’t be overstated if the Leafs are to take the next step. Winning a playoff round has to come from the actions of these three players. It will be one of these stars scoring the critical goal in a Game 7, or scoring an overtime goal earlier in a series so they don’t go to a deciding game.

Exceptional seasons are on the horizon. They have to be.

Dave Poulin is a former NHL player, executive and TSN hockey analyst based in Toronto. He is a freelance contributing columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @djpoulin20

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