The San Jose Sharks and Erik Karlsson are going to go their separate ways in the near future. That’s essentially guaranteed at this point. The return is the part that will remain unknown until the deal gets done, though, and depending on what they receive, it may cause a change in their future plans. There are a few different ways that this can go, so let’s evaluate the options.
Return for the Future
The first route that the Sharks could go for a return is probably the most logical, which is acquiring future assets from a team that wants to push for a Stanley Cup. Teams in that category won’t be likely to give up many current roster players outside of what is necessary to make the salary cap numbers work. Teams rumored to be heavily in the mix, such as Carolina and Pittsburgh, would be in this category.
The Hurricanes want to make the next step to truly become a Stanley Cup contender, while Kyle Dubas hopes to bring a little more success to the Penguins before the core starts to retire. If the Sharks go this route for a return, it can lead to some other major moves. At this point, it would push them toward a full rebuild rather than the retool that they’ve been trying to attempt while keeping most of the core intact.
A team losing their best defenseman is never a step toward contention, and with players like Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl not getting any younger, it may make them get more interest on the market as well. Draft picks, prospects and young roster players would make up a majority of the return, but there would likely be a high cap hit or two coming in return in order to make the salaries work.
In the long run, this would likely be the best way to get eventual success, but it would go against the Sharks’ typical strategy of pushing for the playoffs every year. At this point, though, the best road back to the playoffs will likely be high-end youth more than anything else.
There’s a chance that a team feels they have strong depth at the NHL level and strictly want to acquire Karlsson as an upgrade to a specific player. If this is the case, then there’s a chance that the Sharks would acquire roster players instead of future assets. The most likely scenario for this would be a team like the Seattle Kraken, who have a strong NHL roster but lack a deep prospect pool. As a result, the only future assets they can truly offer would be draft picks, and they’d have to send some roster players to make up the rest of the value.
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If the Sharks went this route, it would push them into a better chance to compete now. However, it’s likely the worst way to go. If they’re unable to compete with Karlsson, it’s difficult to see any type of return making the team better immediately. It will essentially keep them at the same mediocre level they’ve been at for the past few seasons. This is the route Doug Wilson was attempting to take the organization, but there has been no improvement since the 2019-20 season. Current general manager Mike Grier would be wise to avoid continuing down the same path that has led to disappointment for nearly half a decade.
A Mix of the Two
There’s also a path that could help the Sharks in both situations, now and for the future. It’ll be a bit more difficult to pull off, but a return featuring roster players and draft picks could be the best of both worlds for Grier. If this were to happen, it’ll likely consist of a few players on inflated contracts to make the salaries work for both teams, though the Sharks would also get a couple of draft picks to help make up for it in the long run.
It’s the least likely way for this to go without getting a third team involved, but it could give the Sharks some additional assets for taking on bad contracts. Of course, it’s easy to forget that an inflated deal doesn’t mean a player is bad. Paying some extra salary for a useful player during an organization’s down year is never a bad strategy if it’s possible. Cap space is a premium in the modern NHL, so teams will pay quite a bit to clear some off their books when they get too close to the salary cap. It’s important to avoid getting contracts with too long of a term, though, as the Sharks have a lot of salary tied up in Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl for the foreseeable future.
The Karlsson trade will have a long-lasting effect on the Sharks’ future. It’s not often that the reigning Norris Trophy winner is on the trade market, and it’s even rarer for teams to question if he’ll be a fit for their organization. As a result, it’s unclear what a return for the Swedish defenseman will look like, but it should be a big one. Whichever way Grier decides to take the organization will certainly be clear once this deal gets done. Although it’s early during his run with Sharks management, this is the type of move that will define his management career.