The Edmonton Oilers’ faithful have plenty to be thrilled about with Connor Brown, including the past chemistry he’s shown with superstar Connor McDavid. Almost a decade ago, the duo combined for 227 points as linemates, and fans are eager to see if the pair can replicate that same chemistry this season. But stay tuned, as you’ll find out later in this article on which centerman I feel he’ll play most with in 2023-24.
Brown was out almost all of last season due to a knee injury; however, with a new chapter ahead of him, we’ve outlined three predictions for the new forward for this season.
Brown Comes Just Shy of the 20-Goal Plateau
Brown’s career high in points is 43 in 71 games during the 2019-20 season, and he tallied his highest points-per-game (P/G) average (.625) a year later when he was a member of the Ottawa Senators.
Related: 3 Predictions for Oilers’ Evander Kane in 2023-24
Taking that into consideration, he’s never been purely an offensive force, so expecting a 60-plus point season out of him may seem unreasonable. That said, with the potential to play alongside two of the best players on the planet, it’s logical to project that surpassing his career-high in points will be within reach.
Brown has only cracked the 20-goal plateau twice in his career and factoring in that he only played four games last season, I’d imagine it will take him more than a few games to get going in the regular season, not only getting his legs and timing back, but adjusting to the team’s systems.
That said, Oilers’ colour commentator Bob Stauffer predicted he’ll score 18 goals. I’ll do one better and predict he scores just one shy of the 20-goal plateau, scoring 19 goals and 30 assists, for 49 points in 2023-24.
Brown Will Be a Workhorse on the Oilers’ Penalty Killing Unit
Brown only suited up in four games last season due to injuries; however, an interesting stat is from 2019 to 2022, no forward in the NHL played more minutes shorthanded than him (512:43), according to Natural Stat Trick. On top of that, he led the NHL in shorthanded tallies with five goals during the shortened 2020-21 season.
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On that note, the Oilers finished 20th in the NHL with a 77 percent penalty-killing unit last season and the forwards that played the most shorthanded minutes were Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (153:24), Mattias Janmark (128:10), McDavid (104:43) and Derek Ryan (97:52).
The prediction for Brown this season will be that he finds a home on the Oilers’ penalty-killing unit and plays the third most shorthanded minutes, behind Nugent-Hopkins and Janmark.
Considering Edmonton picked up an ace up front to play shorthanded in Brown, I’d imagine the team’s penalty-killing unit will improve in 2023-24. Moreover, they also led the NHL in shorthanded goals scored (18) last season and they’ve now become an even more significant threat to score shorthanded with Brown in the lineup.
Brown Will Play More With Draisaitl Than McDavid
The Oilers parted ways with forward Kailer Yamamoto this past offseason to free up cap space to sign Brown and one of the reasons they made the upgrade was because of the diminutive winger’s lack of finish in prime scoring areas.
However, head coach Jay Woodcroft liked playing Yamamoto with Leon Draisaitl because he was feisty on puck retrievals and could get the puck in the hands of the big centerman to start a cycle. While many expect Brown to play alongside McDavid this season, I’m making a prediction that he’ll play more with Draisaitl because I feel their style of play will mesh more effectively.
From 2019 to 2022 Brown was ninth in the NHL in takeaways, demonstrating his tenacity in retrieving pucks, again, an attribute Yamamoto was known for, and I foresee the coaching staff trying to replicate the magic of the Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl and Yamamoto line, which was dynamic in early 2020, but with Brown taking over Yamamoto’s role.
The Athletic’s Allan Mitchell also sees Brown playing more minutes with Draisaitl, but more so because of the fact that Zach Hyman has a better goal share at 5-on-5 playing with McDavid than Draisaitl (57 percent compared to 41 percent). He states:
“Over two seasons combined, it is Hyman who emerges as the one winger coach Jay Woodcroft may not be able to deploy effectively with either centre.
That could impact Brown, who many believe will spend time with McDavid in 2023-24. Hyman’s 41 percent goal share with Draisaitl comes in a large sample (589 minutes) and may dictate the look of both skill lines.”
– Allan Mitchell (From “Lowetide: Evander Kane, Connor Brown, and the Oilers’ Aging Skill Wingers, The Athletic, 09/03/23)
Additionally, while many feel Brown is slated to play in the top six, there’s a possible scenario that forward Dylan Holloway, who’s proven to succeed in his second year in any league he’s played in, steps up and steals top six minutes from Brown throughout the season and that wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. Brown could drop down to the third line to play with Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele, forming an impressive top-nine for the Oilers.
Oil Country has every right to be excited about Brown’s sound defensive ability and scoring touch and he could be a critical piece to the Oilers’ Stanley Cup puzzle this season.
What are your thoughts about the three predictions for Brown? How many points do you think he gets this season and where do you think he’s best suited to play in the lineup? Have your say in the comments below!
