Few players in the NHL take losing more seriously than the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Nikita Kucherov. The winger is constantly trying to improve his game to ensure he is doing the absolute most he can to help his team. That was true in 2015 when the Lightning fell to the Chicago Blackhawks in the Stanley Cup Final, and it remains just as true today. The Lightning experienced a devastating defeat at the hands of the Toronto Maple Leafs last spring in the Stanley Cup Playoffs in the first round and it would seem Kucherov is doing all that he can to keep the Lightning from suffering a similar fate this season.
In the offseason, he put in an insane amount of work. He was leading by example, for sure, but he was also building on his already elite skillset. So far, that hard work is really paying off. The Lightning star has been one of the best forwards in the league for years and even has a Hart Trophy to his name, but this season could be his best yet.
Kucherov’s 2022-23 Recap
Last season went pretty well for Kucherov. The Russian winger recorded 83 assists, which was just a touch short of his career high of 87. He also put the puck in the back of the net 30 times, giving him a total of 113 points. The 2022–23 season was Kucherov’s third time reaching the 100-point mark and his highest point total outside of 2018–19, in which he won the Hart Trophy. The Lightning star is, of course, one of the league’s greatest playoff performers in recent memory, and he did not disappoint in the Lightning’s lone playoff series. He had one goal and five assists over the six-game series.
Looking at his play at even strength and on the power play, his assists were almost perfectly even between the two. He recorded 42 assists on the power play and 41 at even strength. The goals, though, were much more skewed towards even strength, with 22 goals coming at even strength and eight on the power play. His numbers for blocks and takeaways were comparable to his 82-game pace for previous seasons, though his hits were up to a level that had not been seen since 2015-16 with a total of 61. Not everything went perfectly though, as he had a career high in giveaways at 98, and his shooting was not nearly as on point as the rest of his career. What is going so well for Kucherov this season, though?
Kucherov is Shooting With Precision
Perhaps the biggest reason for Kucherov’s surge is his shooting. The simplest way to put it is he is putting more pucks on the net and shooting with more precision than last season. What might surprise Lightning fans is that even though last season was currently tied for Kucherov’s fifth-highest goal total in a season, he was just two shot attempts short of tying a career high of 547 shot attempts. To give perspective, his next highest shot attempt total in a season is 499. The shots that were on target totalled 271, which is the second highest of his career at the moment, but the percentage of shot attempts that translated to shots on goal was below 50 percent, which has only happened one other time in Kucherov’s career.
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What is more interesting is that his shooting percentage dipped substantially below its typical range of 14 to 16 per cent down to 11.1 per cent. The only time it has been lower in his career was in his rookie season, when it was at 8.8 per cent. This season has been a different story. He is averaging 4.68 shots per game and has amassed 103 total shots. His career high for shots per game sits at 3.49, back in 2017-18. His current shot rate is so absurd that if it he kept it up for the remainder of the season, he would have 379 shots on goal — 100 greater than his career high.
His 15 goals sit second in the league at present and is nothing short of impressive. Getting his number of shots up and having higher-quality shots has unsurprisingly translated into a career-high goal-scoring pace. He has a career best goal per 60 minutes of 1.91 and a career high expected goal per 60 minutes of 1.29. If he keeps his pace of .68 goals per game, he will finish the season with 55 goals. That is 14 goals clear of his current best, 41.
Kucherov’s Passing is Still Elite
Make no mistake, Kucherov is just as good at passing as ever. At the quarter mark of the season, he has the second-highest point total of any NHL player over the past 20 seasons outside of Leon Draisaitl‘s 2021–22 campaign. That would not be possible without his 22 assists. He is averaging an assist per game, which is quite impressive. While it is not on pace for a career high like his goal scoring is, it is not all that far off either. If Kucherov keeps up this pace, he will have 81 assists on the season, which would be his third-best season in terms of assists and just six short of his career best of 87.
That does not mean his passing this season is not historic, though. Of Kucherov’s 22 assists, 15 of them are primary assists. He is on the exact same pace for primary assists as he is for goals at the moment. If he can keep setting up the likes of Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel, he will have 55 primary assists when the season comes to a close. That would, in fact, be a career high, as his current best is 52. It’s his seven secondary assists that are lagging behind a little, but even then, he is on pace to finish the season with 25, which would be a respectable fourth-best season in that regard. Kucherov is one of the best passers in the league, and his ability to maintain his elite passing, coupled with his scoring prowess, is what is really making this a special season.
Kucherov has Chemistry with his linemates
As good as Kucherov is, he would not be off to such a hot start if not for his linemates. The Lightning offense has been rather streaky so far this season, but Kucherov’s line has generally performed quite well. They are really driving the offense and are a big part of what is keeping the team afloat. Kucherov’s aforementioned linemates are, of course, Point and Hagel. The trio are the top-three Lightning goal scorers, with Kucherov and Point being the top two scorers overall for the team. Hagel is not too far behind in a three-way tie for third with Victor Hedman and Steven Stamkos. Of the team’s 80 goals — which is oddly the second highest total in the league right now — the trio account for nearly half of them with 37 goals.
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Point might just be the most underrated center in the league. After a bit of a rocky start, he has really stepped it up and recorded two hat tricks this month. Point had a career season in 2022-23, putting up 95 points and crossing the 50-goal threshold for the first time with 51. This season, he is not on pace for new career-bests, but is still putting up stellar numbers and providing a high level of play for the top line.
Hagel is quite an unsung hero in his own right. The Lightning got him on an absolute bargain of a contract during 2021–22 from the Blackhawks. The energy and skill were there from the start, even if the scoring was not. After an offseason to adjust, he really blossomed into a quality goal scorer the Lightning could count on. He has not looked back, and with each passing month, even he looks better. The 25-year-old forward is yet to reach his peak. Last season he scored 30 goals, which was his best to date, and this season he is on pace for 35 goals. While it’s unknown how high his ceiling is, Lightning fans have to be happy about his contract extension this past offseason (especially with the salary cap purported to rise soon). Kucherov no doubt elevates the play of his teammates, but they do the same for him, and together they have had quite the campaign.
What’s Next?
Well, if Kucherov can keep it up, then he’ll finish the season with a career high 136 points. As ludicrous as that sounds and as unrealistic as it might be, it is possible for him to do it as 136 points is not that huge of a leap from his current career high of 128 points. Should Kucherov complete the feat, he would have the second-highest point total of any player in a given season since 2000. In fact, he would have had two of the top five point totals since 2000. Should such a scenario play out, there is no doubt Nikita Kucherov would win the Hart Trophy. There is a long way to go, and there are a ton of great contenders for league MVP that could usurp Kucherov, but for now, he is off to as good a start as anyone could hope for.