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Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter
Figuring out who will win this year’s Calder Trophy has turned into something of a complex discussion — all because of what happened on Jan. 5.
That’s the day Chicago Blackhawks star center Connor Bedard fractured his jaw. Until that evening, Bedard was making not only a strong case for the Calder, but for one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory. He led this year’s rookie class in several offensive categories, was doing the same thing with his team, all while playing as a top-line center — which led to him being the only rookie named to the NHL All-Star Game in Toronto.
Now that Bedard is out (until February at the earliest), is he still the favorite to win the Calder, or could someone else take over? Brock Faber has navigated the Minnesota Wild throughout all sorts of challenges, while Luke Hughes has a chance to reach the 50-point plateau for the New Jersey Devils. Adam Fantilli is handling the demands of being a top-line center and is among the Columbus Blue Jackets‘ best players in several categories.
Who leads the way, and who’s not that far behind? Let’s find out.
Stats: 39 GP | 15 G | 18 A | 33 P
Previous ranking: No. 1
Why he’s here: At the time of his injury, Bedard had a nine-point gap in the rookie points race over Adam Fantilli. Even as of Jan. 17, his lead is still eight points. Bedard has remained one of the constants on a Blackhawks team that has struggled to find offensive contributions this season. The Blackhawks must try to find answers elsewhere without their top-line center, who not only led them in goals, assists and points, but also led all forwards in average ice time.
Going forward: The Blackhawks announced on Jan. 10 that Bedard was slated to be out for six to eight weeks. His earliest projected return would be the week of Feb. 18, but it could be later in the month or early March. It’s possible that the slew of players who are behind Bedard in the rookie points race, such as Faber, Fantilli, Hughes and Marco Rossi, could surpass him by that time, while Fantilli and Rossi could overtake him in goals.
Stats: 43 GP | 2 G | 19 A | 21 P
Previous ranking: No. 5
Why he’s here: Faber has become such an integral part of the Wild. If not for Jake Middleton, Faber would be the only Wild defenseman who has played in every game this season. His role has continued to develop from being one of their most important defensemen to arguably becoming one of their most important players regardless of position. Even before injuries really began decimating the Wild’s roster, they were still using Faber to log heavy 5-on-5 minutes, evidenced by the fact he leads his team and all rookies in average ice time.
Going forward: Something that could continue strengthening Faber’s case for the Calder is his usage and how it compares to others. Even when Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon were healthy, Faber was still playing heavy minutes and key roles, which further reinforces how important he is to the Wild’s overall setup. Continuing to play those minutes while also having the sort of offensive production similar to that of a more scoring-oriented defenseman such as Hughes has a chance to play a role in Faber capturing the Calder.
Stats: 41 GP | 7 G | 16 A | 23 P
Previous ranking: No. 2
Why he’s here: Hughes is on pace to finish with 14 goals and 46 points as a defenseman. For context, compare those numbers to what all-rookie-team duo Owen Power and Jake Sanderson did last season: Power had 35 points, while Sanderson finished with 32. The last rookie defensemen to finish with 50 points were Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes back in 2019-20, and Quinn’s little brother isn’t far off of that pace.
Going forward: Hughes is averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game, and is at the controls of a Devils power play that’s a top-five unit in the NHL. The difference between Faber and Hughes when it comes to their Calder chances is that Faber has been playing top-pairing minutes all season, while also playing on the Wild’s first-team power-play and penalty-killing units. For all the talk about a generational forward this season in Bedard, it could be two defensemen who could decide the Calder Trophy race.
Stats: 44 GP | 11 G | 14 A | 25 P
Previous ranking: No. 8
Why he’s here: Fantilli’s December production is what allowed him to make such a large jump in the rankings. After nine points in his first 19 games, Fantilli had seven goals and 13 points in 14 games in December. He parlayed that success into becoming the Blue Jackets’ first-line center, and is second on the team in points and tied for third in goals.
Going forward: “Role” has become the attribute that has defined this year’s rookie class, and Fantilli is an example of that. Much like contemporaries such as Bedard and Faber, he has been elevated into a key role by being the Blue Jackets’ first-line center and is also anchoring the second-team power-play unit. Fantilli is projected to finish the season with 21 goals and 47 points, which is three goals and 10 points shy of what reigning Calder Trophy winner Matty Beniers did last season. It’s what makes him among the strongest contenders to take over the goals and/or points race until Bedard returns.
Stats: 43 GP | 12 G | 12 A | 12 P
Previous ranking: No. 7
Why he’s here: Rossi is another rookie who is operating in a top-six role, though he has been moved to the second line with the Wild turning to Joel Eriksson Ek to operate as their top-line center. Still, Rossi has remained active on the second line and has carved out a place on the Wild’s top power play unit as a winger next to Eriksson Ek. As for how he ranks among the rest of the rookie class? He’s tied with Fantilli for second in points, and is three goals behind Bedard for first in that category.
Going forward: How he performs in the second half of the season could have implications both for the Wild and for Rossi’s place in the Calder discussion. Rossi is on pace to score 23 goals, a significant number for the Wild considering they reside in the bottom third in goals per game and are clinging onto the hope of reaching the playoffs. As for what it means in terms of the Calder race, it’s possible that Rossi could end up finishing the season leading all rookies in either goals, points or both. If he does, it only adds to his case, and presents another question: Who has been more valuable to the Wild between Faber and Rossi?
Stats: 19 GP | 11 W | 2.33 GAA | .910 SV %
Previous ranking: NR
Why he’s here: Of all the goaltenders in this rookie class, Ersson has been the most consistent. He entered Jan. 16 leading first-year goalies in wins, GAA, minutes and shutouts, and is second in save percentage. Those performances have done more than make him front-runner to be the first goalie on the all-rookie team — though Toronto’s Joseph Woll isn’t too far off in the distance. He has been part of the collective that has helped the Flyers go from being in a rebuild to potentially winning the Metropolitan Division in a year’s time.
Going forward: Relying upon a tandem approach in goal has proven vital for a Flyers roster that’s reached mid-January in a playoff spot. The difference between Ersson and Carter Hart? Ersson has the better GAA while Hart has a slight edge in save percentage. Either way, it has given the Flyers consistency in net.
Stats: 33 GP | 9 G | 13 A | 22 P
Previous ranking: NR
Why he’s here: With Zary debuting in early November, he was at least seven games behind the rest of the rookie class. Since being called up, he has been one of the more consistent performers of this season’s group. With nine goals and 22 points, Zary has given himself a chance to be within striking distance of his contemporaries, considering he’s tied for fourth in goals and fifth in points. He has also been the most accurate of anyone in the rookie class, as he leads the group with a 23.1% shooting percentage (minimum 30 games played).
Going forward: Zary’s situation is potentially unique within this class. Many of his contemporaries have either started or gradually worked their way to top-line or top-pairing roles. Zary is one of 11 Flames players who has scored more than 20 points this season, a reflection of how they’ve found contributions from everyone. He has been playing on the third line while also logging minutes on the second-team power-play unit. Zary’s place within the lineup hasn’t played an issue in his production, and if that continues, it could see him remain as one of the challengers in the rookie scoring race.
Stats: GP: 22 | 11 W | 2.50 GAA | .903 SV %
Previous ranking: NR
Why he’s here: Frederik Andersen was moved to injured reserve with blood clots, while Antti Raanta, who had a .857 save percentage through his first two months, was sent to the AHL. That led to the Canes promoting Kochetkov to serve as their No. 1. Similar to last season, he has provided them a sense of stability in goal. The trust he has gained has led to him being in the top 10 in games started since his first game on Nov. 11. Kochetkov is also tied for the lead in wins among rookie goalies and is second in goals-against average among rookie netminders with more than 10 starts.
Going forward: Kochetkov was giving the Canes stability in net, while also making a case as the top rookie goalie in this class. On Jan. 12, the team placed Kochetkov in concussion protocol with the notion that he will be out indefinitely. His absence means the Canes will once again turn to Raanta along with rookie Yaniv Perets now that Andersen and Kochetkov are both sidelined.
Stats: 38 GP | 9 G | 13 | 22 P
Previous ranking: NR
Why he’s here: Similar to Zary, Voronkov could make the rookie goals and/or points race even more interesting. He has nine goals entering mid-January, and a strong run of performances could see him climb the scoring charts. Much of his damage has come in even-strength play, as his 19 even-strength points is tied for fourth among rookies. And much like Fantilli, he has been one of the Blue Jackets’ stronger forwards this season.
Going forward: A question facing Voronkov — beyond whether he carves out a greater place in the Calder discussion — is whether the Blue Jackets can parlay his even-strength success into something that works on the power play. Voronkov has two power-play points this season, which is a bit bizarre given he’s on the Blue Jackets’ first-team power-play unit and has the fifth-most ice time among Blue Jackets forwards with the extra-skater advantage.
Stats: 43 GP | 9 G | 12 A | 21 P
Previously ranking: NR
Why he’s here: Rookie classes can fluctuate, and Evangelista is a strong example of that. His production has kept him within the top 10 of the rookie points race, yet what he has done in January has made him even more noticeable. Evangelista entered the month with five goals, and has four through his first seven games of the new year.
Going forward: Everything Evangelista has done to start January raises the following question: Is he about to mount a serious challenge in the rookie goals and/or points race? Especially when he’s part of that nine-goal group that includes Voronkov and Zary. Evangelista and the others are within three goals of Rossi for second place, and the Preds rookie is within four points of Fantilli, who is in second place in that category.
Honorable mention (in alphabetical order):
Bobby Brink, RW, Philadelphia Flyers
Logan Cooley, C, Arizona Coyotes
Matthew Knies, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Kevin Korchinski, D, Chicago Blackhawks
Pavel Mintyukov, D, Anaheim Ducks